'La Doyenne' is here, and the most prestigious of the Ardennes classics will be up for grabs in what looks like the most open race in a few years. Last year was essentially a very select bunch sprint, but a more traditional Liege-Bastogne-Liege sees a lot of attacks and only a few of the strongest riders arriving at the finish together. We should see a reversion to that style of racing here, with a lot of teams hoping to break the dominance of the climbing sprinters, Valverde and Kwiatkowski.
The Course
Whilst Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallonne are defined most frequently by their finishes, there are few sections of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege course that haven't been decisive at some point in the race's history. The organisers have done some fiddling to the route this time, removing the Cote des Forges, which will reduce the overall amount of climbing, but it brings the tough climb of La Redoute closer to the finish and perhaps make it more decisive than it was last year. The Col du Rosier is also back on the parcours, and it will add a fair whack of climbing to the legs, which again should serve to make it a more selective edition.
There is over 4,000 metres of climbing here, over a course of 253.5 kilometres, so it is no surprise that this is the classic that suits the climbers the best. Nonetheless, it is rare a pure climber wins this race, certainly a lot of endurance is required to last the distance as well.
The race begins in Liege, with the terrain in the first 100 kms rolling, with only one categorised climb, the Cote de la Roche-en-Ardenne (2.8 kms, 6.2%). The turn in Bastogne is made and the riders will be sent back towards Liege, but again, it will take some time for the race to hot up, as the lonely climb of the Cote de Saint-Roch (1.0 km, 11.1%) is the only challenge for some time on the otherwise flattest part of the course. From 87 kms to go, the course starts to get serious about creating some difficulties for the riders with the Cote de Wanne (2.7 kms, 7.4%), the Cote de Stockeu (1.0 km, 12.5%), the Cote de la Haute-Levee (3.6 kms, 5.6%) and the Col du Rosier (4.4 kms, 5.9%), which crests with just under 60 kms to go. That marks the end of the first main block of climbing, and it gives the teams a chance to reassess and find out how their legs feel today. The Col de Maquisard (2.5 kms, 5%) and the Cote de La Redoute (2.0 kms, 8.9%) are rather isolated in terms of their location, so it may be hard to form a successful escape and maintain it from a peleton, but it is normally where a major selection is made, and the main group is drastically reduced in size. There is some quite easy terrain from here to the base of the next climb, which will give a chance for a significant regrouping, depending on the race situation. The Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 kms, 9.3%) is a formidable climb, and often sees the race-winning move goes clear, especially as there are only 19 kms from the summit, and the course is generally ascending or descending, which will advantage the attackers. The final climb for the riders trying to avoid a sprint is the Cote de Saint-Nicholas (1.2 kms, 8.6%) which summits with just 5.5 kms remaining. A short descent follows, but it is hard-pedalling rather than technical, so a committed chase group behind can make a difference, and the road flattens out for 1 km before the flame rouge. The finale itself is far from flat, rising at an average of 4.6% for the final kilometre, though the final 200 metres is essentially flat.
The weather will have its part to play in the proceedings, with rain predicted and a moderate wind from the southwest, which will either be a crosswind, or cross-tailwind for the last 80 kms, and will advantage the attackers. It shouldn't be overly cold, at 15 degrees Celsius, but the wind and rain will make it unpleasant and even more selective.
Whilst Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallonne are defined most frequently by their finishes, there are few sections of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege course that haven't been decisive at some point in the race's history. The organisers have done some fiddling to the route this time, removing the Cote des Forges, which will reduce the overall amount of climbing, but it brings the tough climb of La Redoute closer to the finish and perhaps make it more decisive than it was last year. The Col du Rosier is also back on the parcours, and it will add a fair whack of climbing to the legs, which again should serve to make it a more selective edition.
There is over 4,000 metres of climbing here, over a course of 253.5 kilometres, so it is no surprise that this is the classic that suits the climbers the best. Nonetheless, it is rare a pure climber wins this race, certainly a lot of endurance is required to last the distance as well.
The race begins in Liege, with the terrain in the first 100 kms rolling, with only one categorised climb, the Cote de la Roche-en-Ardenne (2.8 kms, 6.2%). The turn in Bastogne is made and the riders will be sent back towards Liege, but again, it will take some time for the race to hot up, as the lonely climb of the Cote de Saint-Roch (1.0 km, 11.1%) is the only challenge for some time on the otherwise flattest part of the course. From 87 kms to go, the course starts to get serious about creating some difficulties for the riders with the Cote de Wanne (2.7 kms, 7.4%), the Cote de Stockeu (1.0 km, 12.5%), the Cote de la Haute-Levee (3.6 kms, 5.6%) and the Col du Rosier (4.4 kms, 5.9%), which crests with just under 60 kms to go. That marks the end of the first main block of climbing, and it gives the teams a chance to reassess and find out how their legs feel today. The Col de Maquisard (2.5 kms, 5%) and the Cote de La Redoute (2.0 kms, 8.9%) are rather isolated in terms of their location, so it may be hard to form a successful escape and maintain it from a peleton, but it is normally where a major selection is made, and the main group is drastically reduced in size. There is some quite easy terrain from here to the base of the next climb, which will give a chance for a significant regrouping, depending on the race situation. The Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 kms, 9.3%) is a formidable climb, and often sees the race-winning move goes clear, especially as there are only 19 kms from the summit, and the course is generally ascending or descending, which will advantage the attackers. The final climb for the riders trying to avoid a sprint is the Cote de Saint-Nicholas (1.2 kms, 8.6%) which summits with just 5.5 kms remaining. A short descent follows, but it is hard-pedalling rather than technical, so a committed chase group behind can make a difference, and the road flattens out for 1 km before the flame rouge. The finale itself is far from flat, rising at an average of 4.6% for the final kilometre, though the final 200 metres is essentially flat.
The weather will have its part to play in the proceedings, with rain predicted and a moderate wind from the southwest, which will either be a crosswind, or cross-tailwind for the last 80 kms, and will advantage the attackers. It shouldn't be overly cold, at 15 degrees Celsius, but the wind and rain will make it unpleasant and even more selective.
The Tactics
Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a race of many variations, and depending on how the race is run, it can lead to Andy Schleck winning the race solo or Simon Gerrans winning from a reduced bunch sprint of over 20 riders. Positioning isn't as important as it has been in the other Ardennes races, as climbs themselves are very hard, and the pace on the flatter sections is less of a battle to be the first into each of the important climbs and more of an organised grind, similar to a mountains stage at a Grand Tour.
The main tactical battle that I can see forming is the teams of the climbers vs Movistar and Ettix-Quickstep, who will be working for their team leaders Valverde and Kwiatkowski to bring it down to a sprint like last year, where they finished 2nd and 3rd respectively. They have also won a classic apiece in the lead-up so it makes sense that teams will be trying to formulate a plan where they aren't present at the finish. That will most likely involve isolating Valverde and Kwiatkowski, and then launching enough attacks so that they can't follow, or are at least outnumbered in any group they make it into.
EQS don't have a particularly strong team, and have tried to airlift some support in by inserting a presumably resting Stybar, who will be hard pressed to be there when it matters after last racing in Paris-Roubaix. Julien Alaphillipe has looked very strong in the Ardennes classics, finishing 7th in Amstel, 2nd in Fleche and also looking strong in Brabantes Pijl. This however, is a different level, longer and with more climbing, which will test his young legs, but I wouldn't put it past him entirely. Other than that, I can't see anyone from EQS present in the crucial stages of the race.
Movistar aren't much better either, with Gorka Izagirre, Nairo Quintana and Giovanni Visconti, and it is worth noting that the best finishing position any of these have achieved in this race is Visconti's 54th in 2013. Perhaps a bit unfair on Quintana, given he hasn't attempted this race yet, but there is a reason for that, as he doesn't really have the endurance or classics background. He has decent performances in Lombardia (16th and 11th), enough to suggest that he could be there in the finale, but he is hardly a big workhorse, even if he is present.
Last season it was the combined efforts of Ben Hermans or BMC and Pieter Weening of OGE that brought Giampaolo Caruso and Domenico Pozzovivo within striking range of the sprinters, but they likely won't be working for Gerrans and Gilbert this year, with both leaders having questionable fitness. They may get some help from Garmin-Sharp, as it is clear that Dan Martin quite likes the finale of the race, having looked the strongest on it two years running, but again he is under an injury cloud, so they may look to play other cards and not have all their eggs in a crash-prone basket.
Basically it boils down to the fact that rather than 4-5 teams striving for a sprint finish, there will 2-3 and those 2-3 weren't the 2-3 that brought everything back together last year. If it wasn't for Hermans and Weening, I'd be talking about the prospects of the defending champion Giampaolo Caruso. In addition to the actual difference in the strength of the chasing bunch, there is also the increased chance of the stronger riders rolling the dice with an attack. Last year, they knew that they were likely doomed, with all the firepower behind waiting to chase them down, whereas this year it will be more open, with riders thinking that they will be more likely to stay away. I expect we'll see the race splinter into much smaller groups than what happened last year, as the factors that kept the bunch together aren't as prevalent in this edition.
Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a race of many variations, and depending on how the race is run, it can lead to Andy Schleck winning the race solo or Simon Gerrans winning from a reduced bunch sprint of over 20 riders. Positioning isn't as important as it has been in the other Ardennes races, as climbs themselves are very hard, and the pace on the flatter sections is less of a battle to be the first into each of the important climbs and more of an organised grind, similar to a mountains stage at a Grand Tour.
The main tactical battle that I can see forming is the teams of the climbers vs Movistar and Ettix-Quickstep, who will be working for their team leaders Valverde and Kwiatkowski to bring it down to a sprint like last year, where they finished 2nd and 3rd respectively. They have also won a classic apiece in the lead-up so it makes sense that teams will be trying to formulate a plan where they aren't present at the finish. That will most likely involve isolating Valverde and Kwiatkowski, and then launching enough attacks so that they can't follow, or are at least outnumbered in any group they make it into.
EQS don't have a particularly strong team, and have tried to airlift some support in by inserting a presumably resting Stybar, who will be hard pressed to be there when it matters after last racing in Paris-Roubaix. Julien Alaphillipe has looked very strong in the Ardennes classics, finishing 7th in Amstel, 2nd in Fleche and also looking strong in Brabantes Pijl. This however, is a different level, longer and with more climbing, which will test his young legs, but I wouldn't put it past him entirely. Other than that, I can't see anyone from EQS present in the crucial stages of the race.
Movistar aren't much better either, with Gorka Izagirre, Nairo Quintana and Giovanni Visconti, and it is worth noting that the best finishing position any of these have achieved in this race is Visconti's 54th in 2013. Perhaps a bit unfair on Quintana, given he hasn't attempted this race yet, but there is a reason for that, as he doesn't really have the endurance or classics background. He has decent performances in Lombardia (16th and 11th), enough to suggest that he could be there in the finale, but he is hardly a big workhorse, even if he is present.
Last season it was the combined efforts of Ben Hermans or BMC and Pieter Weening of OGE that brought Giampaolo Caruso and Domenico Pozzovivo within striking range of the sprinters, but they likely won't be working for Gerrans and Gilbert this year, with both leaders having questionable fitness. They may get some help from Garmin-Sharp, as it is clear that Dan Martin quite likes the finale of the race, having looked the strongest on it two years running, but again he is under an injury cloud, so they may look to play other cards and not have all their eggs in a crash-prone basket.
Basically it boils down to the fact that rather than 4-5 teams striving for a sprint finish, there will 2-3 and those 2-3 weren't the 2-3 that brought everything back together last year. If it wasn't for Hermans and Weening, I'd be talking about the prospects of the defending champion Giampaolo Caruso. In addition to the actual difference in the strength of the chasing bunch, there is also the increased chance of the stronger riders rolling the dice with an attack. Last year, they knew that they were likely doomed, with all the firepower behind waiting to chase them down, whereas this year it will be more open, with riders thinking that they will be more likely to stay away. I expect we'll see the race splinter into much smaller groups than what happened last year, as the factors that kept the bunch together aren't as prevalent in this edition.
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde was flying at Amstel, did a lot of work controlling the final at Fleche Wallonne, before leaving everyone in his wake as he took a convincing win. His record in LBL is superb, and he boast two wins, two seconds and two thirds, in the classic that probably suits him the best. He is clearly the man to beat, and that may be his downfall, as any move he makes will be immediately marked, and riders will be very keen to attack him, as they know that they won't be able to take him in a sprint. Valverde is one of the most experienced riders around, and one of the best classics riders of his generation, so he may be able to win all the same, but with his poor team support, I expect him to be marked out of the race.
Michal Kwiatkowski is going to be in the same boat as Valverde, with his sprint and strength probably has the best chance of winning a one-on-one battle with the dominant Spaniard, but he will be a marked man as well. This could lead to an unlikely alliance between the two, as they will probably back themselves to beat the other in the finale and will both probably have to neutralise attacks at some point. Kwiatkowski struggled on the Mur de Huy on Wednesday, but he was obviously very good in Amstel, and will be much better suited to LBL, which is longer and suits his great endurance, and is more the sort of climbing that he likes. His World Championships win was over similar terrain in similar conditions, so it would be a brave man to suggest that he'd struggle to do well here.
Simon Gerrans is the defending champion, but he is going to have a tough time sticking with the best here, as multiple injuries have really stalled his training regime for the classics, and I'd expect him to be used as a card to play for Orica-Greenedge rather than their only rider. He rode quite well in Amstel, but it is a long way from being present at the bottom of the Cauberg and being a significant presence in the race. He's announced that he is opting to do the Giro D'Italia, and I think we'll see him in top form there. OGE have a number of other riders who could go deep into this race, but I'd expect Johan Esteban Chaves to be their strongest. His lightweight frame and attacking nature will stand him in good stead here, and he rode strongly in the World Championships last year, so the distance won't trouble him too much.
Joaquim Rodriguez has a mixed history in this race, with two second places in the past, most recently behind Dan Martin in 2013, but apart from that he is rarely in the first group that makes the finale. His form looked very good in Pais Vasco, but he was off the pace in Amstel, and I would have expected a better showing from him in Fleche Wallonne, which suits his characteristics perfectly. I wouldn't put it past him to bounce back here, he does benefit from having a strong team that I think will be active in the attacks that go late in the race.
His teammate Giampaolo Caruso would have won this race last year as he attacked on the penultimate climb with Pozzovivo and made the most of the indecision in the group of favourites behind to power on. On the final climb, he dispatched Pozzovivo and rounded the final corner in 1st, but he was passed by the first three riders in the last 75m and would have been rueing this missed opportunity despite a good result of 4th. He has been strong this week, finishing in the front group in Amstel and attacking on the penultimate climb in Fleche Wallonne, and gave the peleton something to chase. He'll be given a similarly attacking role here you would think, probably because of his poor sprint, he's unlikely to win from a big group and would better off arriving alone or with one or two riders in tow. Dani Moreno is another Katusha rider who will have a similar script to work off, though his form is nowhere what it has been in the past.
Dan Martin is a former winner of this race, and may have defended his title last year, but he crashed on the final corner, leaving himself and many to wonder what if. Crashing has become an unfortunate issue for the Irishman, he DNF'd at the Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday after a crash fouled his chances. He didn't look too hurt, so he was probably just saving his energy for LBL. It has been a bit hard to gauge his form as a result, but it would be silly to underestimate Martin, who is suited perfectly to this race. He doesn't have the strongest team, and will have to play his cards carefully, but if he is in the right position at the crucial stages of the race, and he hasn't been overly inconvenienced by his crash this week he should be expected to win. Tom-Jelte Slagter is the man who will become the team leader if Martin is unable to go for the win, and he could be a dark horse for the win, with decent form in Pais Vasco, 9th in Fleche, and a 6th in this race last year. He has a punchy sprint that is well suited to the finale here, probably not enough to beat Valverde or Kwiatkowski, but he should be faster than most of the others.
Phillipe Gilbert is another who hit the ground during Fleche Wallonne, and didn't finish the race, and he actually did look to be in a fair bit of pain, and presumably won't be riding at 100%. He is a former winner here, and also has a host of solid results in other editions, so he is clearly very well suited to the course. In recent years, all he has lacked is the kick to go with the sprinty riders, or has let the wrong attack go down the road. That aside, he has ridden very well, and he should be expected to do the same if he is riding at close to full fitness. His attack up the Cauberg, with Matthews desperately clinging to his wheel was my favourite moment in cycling to date so far this year, and if he can bring that sort of power to the table in LBL, it will be hard for anyone to hold his wheel. He does look to be really in quite a bad way after his crash, and BMC has decided to go with Tejay Van Garderen as their protected rider. He could do a decent ride, but he doesn't have the classics pedigree of the other contenders, nor really the pure climbing ability of some here. Someone who could slip under the radar from BMC is Brabantes Pijl winner Ben Hermans, who definitely won't be a marked man, but showed in Pijl that he has the strength to finish a move off if given room. He was also strong in working for Gilbert in last year's edition, and he is an outsider who might create a surprise if he gets in the right move.
Domenico Pozzovivo is back again after an impressive debut last year where he took 5th, after being a part of two different attacks. Clearly he is well-suited to the climbs of this race, as he is tiny, and appreciates the steep gradients. The main obstacle for him is that whilst his power-to-weight ratio is exceptional, he really lacks the top-end power to finish off a sprint and he will need to arrive at the finish by himself. His AG2R team looks very strong, with Bardet and Nocentini also very viable options to go for the win, and if they can get the numbers in a move they could dictate the race. They will have to win it with superior tactics however, as they are stronger riders than them in the race, that they can't arrive at the finish with.
Another team with strength in numbers is Lotto-Soudal, who will have Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin who will be joint leaders, as well as Jelle Vanendert, as long as he has pulled up ok from his crash in Fleche. Gallopin already has a big classics win to his name, with the Classica San Sebastian on his palmares, and with the predicted weather it also reminiscent of the stage win he took in Paris-Nice earlier this year. He is in good form, with a 6th in Amstel and a 4th in Pijl, but in both those cases missed the initial move before chasing back on and sprinting to a decent place. Tim Wellens has also proved himself as a man to handle classics distances, doing well at races like Giro D'Lombardia and Plouay in the past. It's strange to think that he's only 23 because he has formidable strength and often animates the races like he did in Fleche Wallonne, when he made the strongest attack on the penultimate climb, and held his advantage until mid-way up the Mur de Huy. He possibly will be a bit disadvantaged by the climbing, but in these one-day races he is far stronger on the climbs than he would be in a Grand Tour. Jelle Vanendert would be the normal leader here, but his crash has cast speculation of how ready he will be. In his best form, he will excel on the steep climbs and make smart moves into the breakaways. He is another who can't afford to sprint against the best, but like AG2R his team is strong enough that they might be able to use team tactics to ensure that they have a good chance in the finale,
Rui Costa is a rider that has all the right attributes to win LBL, but he hasn't yet managed to put all the pieces together. Strong on the steeper climbs, tactically savvy, and with impressive endurance that makes him more of a contender the longer the race is, Costa will be the main man for Lampre-Merida, but he will most likely be isolated in the finale. That isn't so bad for Costa, he won't be expected to do any chasing, but if he misses the crucial move, he won't have much recourse to bringing it back other than prayer. Also, he won't be able to play the tactics like AG2R or Lotto-Soudal, having a man sit on whilst another attacks, and it will limit his options. If he makes the right move at the right time, he has a good chance of winning, but it could be a bit of a lottery for the Portuguese champ.
Roman Kreuziger comes into the race with a lot of confidence after strong performances in Amstel and Fleche, which don't really suit him in the same way as Liege does. 7th last year and 4th in 2011, he has also won Amstel and San Sebastian in the past, and so clearly has the right sort of physicality to ride and win these sort of races. Similar to Costa, he will be isolated at the end of the race, and so will have to pick the right move to follow, but again is he gets in that right move, he has a lot of power, and is a good chance of converting it into a win.
My riders to watch section is proving to be fairly successful, highlighting Tiesj Benoot before his 5th in Flanders and Florian Senchal before his active 17th in Roubaix. Here, Dylan Teuns is the young rider to watch, although the cat is more out of the bag with him. He won a stage of the Tour de l'Avenir, before performing very strongly in the Tour of Britain. This year has been a learning curve for him, but he performed above expectations in Fleche-Wallonne riding to 12th. He is clearly well suited to the longer races and the punchier climbs, so he should be able to go with the favourites for quite a long way here.
Alejandro Valverde was flying at Amstel, did a lot of work controlling the final at Fleche Wallonne, before leaving everyone in his wake as he took a convincing win. His record in LBL is superb, and he boast two wins, two seconds and two thirds, in the classic that probably suits him the best. He is clearly the man to beat, and that may be his downfall, as any move he makes will be immediately marked, and riders will be very keen to attack him, as they know that they won't be able to take him in a sprint. Valverde is one of the most experienced riders around, and one of the best classics riders of his generation, so he may be able to win all the same, but with his poor team support, I expect him to be marked out of the race.
Michal Kwiatkowski is going to be in the same boat as Valverde, with his sprint and strength probably has the best chance of winning a one-on-one battle with the dominant Spaniard, but he will be a marked man as well. This could lead to an unlikely alliance between the two, as they will probably back themselves to beat the other in the finale and will both probably have to neutralise attacks at some point. Kwiatkowski struggled on the Mur de Huy on Wednesday, but he was obviously very good in Amstel, and will be much better suited to LBL, which is longer and suits his great endurance, and is more the sort of climbing that he likes. His World Championships win was over similar terrain in similar conditions, so it would be a brave man to suggest that he'd struggle to do well here.
Simon Gerrans is the defending champion, but he is going to have a tough time sticking with the best here, as multiple injuries have really stalled his training regime for the classics, and I'd expect him to be used as a card to play for Orica-Greenedge rather than their only rider. He rode quite well in Amstel, but it is a long way from being present at the bottom of the Cauberg and being a significant presence in the race. He's announced that he is opting to do the Giro D'Italia, and I think we'll see him in top form there. OGE have a number of other riders who could go deep into this race, but I'd expect Johan Esteban Chaves to be their strongest. His lightweight frame and attacking nature will stand him in good stead here, and he rode strongly in the World Championships last year, so the distance won't trouble him too much.
Joaquim Rodriguez has a mixed history in this race, with two second places in the past, most recently behind Dan Martin in 2013, but apart from that he is rarely in the first group that makes the finale. His form looked very good in Pais Vasco, but he was off the pace in Amstel, and I would have expected a better showing from him in Fleche Wallonne, which suits his characteristics perfectly. I wouldn't put it past him to bounce back here, he does benefit from having a strong team that I think will be active in the attacks that go late in the race.
His teammate Giampaolo Caruso would have won this race last year as he attacked on the penultimate climb with Pozzovivo and made the most of the indecision in the group of favourites behind to power on. On the final climb, he dispatched Pozzovivo and rounded the final corner in 1st, but he was passed by the first three riders in the last 75m and would have been rueing this missed opportunity despite a good result of 4th. He has been strong this week, finishing in the front group in Amstel and attacking on the penultimate climb in Fleche Wallonne, and gave the peleton something to chase. He'll be given a similarly attacking role here you would think, probably because of his poor sprint, he's unlikely to win from a big group and would better off arriving alone or with one or two riders in tow. Dani Moreno is another Katusha rider who will have a similar script to work off, though his form is nowhere what it has been in the past.
Dan Martin is a former winner of this race, and may have defended his title last year, but he crashed on the final corner, leaving himself and many to wonder what if. Crashing has become an unfortunate issue for the Irishman, he DNF'd at the Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday after a crash fouled his chances. He didn't look too hurt, so he was probably just saving his energy for LBL. It has been a bit hard to gauge his form as a result, but it would be silly to underestimate Martin, who is suited perfectly to this race. He doesn't have the strongest team, and will have to play his cards carefully, but if he is in the right position at the crucial stages of the race, and he hasn't been overly inconvenienced by his crash this week he should be expected to win. Tom-Jelte Slagter is the man who will become the team leader if Martin is unable to go for the win, and he could be a dark horse for the win, with decent form in Pais Vasco, 9th in Fleche, and a 6th in this race last year. He has a punchy sprint that is well suited to the finale here, probably not enough to beat Valverde or Kwiatkowski, but he should be faster than most of the others.
Phillipe Gilbert is another who hit the ground during Fleche Wallonne, and didn't finish the race, and he actually did look to be in a fair bit of pain, and presumably won't be riding at 100%. He is a former winner here, and also has a host of solid results in other editions, so he is clearly very well suited to the course. In recent years, all he has lacked is the kick to go with the sprinty riders, or has let the wrong attack go down the road. That aside, he has ridden very well, and he should be expected to do the same if he is riding at close to full fitness. His attack up the Cauberg, with Matthews desperately clinging to his wheel was my favourite moment in cycling to date so far this year, and if he can bring that sort of power to the table in LBL, it will be hard for anyone to hold his wheel. He does look to be really in quite a bad way after his crash, and BMC has decided to go with Tejay Van Garderen as their protected rider. He could do a decent ride, but he doesn't have the classics pedigree of the other contenders, nor really the pure climbing ability of some here. Someone who could slip under the radar from BMC is Brabantes Pijl winner Ben Hermans, who definitely won't be a marked man, but showed in Pijl that he has the strength to finish a move off if given room. He was also strong in working for Gilbert in last year's edition, and he is an outsider who might create a surprise if he gets in the right move.
Domenico Pozzovivo is back again after an impressive debut last year where he took 5th, after being a part of two different attacks. Clearly he is well-suited to the climbs of this race, as he is tiny, and appreciates the steep gradients. The main obstacle for him is that whilst his power-to-weight ratio is exceptional, he really lacks the top-end power to finish off a sprint and he will need to arrive at the finish by himself. His AG2R team looks very strong, with Bardet and Nocentini also very viable options to go for the win, and if they can get the numbers in a move they could dictate the race. They will have to win it with superior tactics however, as they are stronger riders than them in the race, that they can't arrive at the finish with.
Another team with strength in numbers is Lotto-Soudal, who will have Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin who will be joint leaders, as well as Jelle Vanendert, as long as he has pulled up ok from his crash in Fleche. Gallopin already has a big classics win to his name, with the Classica San Sebastian on his palmares, and with the predicted weather it also reminiscent of the stage win he took in Paris-Nice earlier this year. He is in good form, with a 6th in Amstel and a 4th in Pijl, but in both those cases missed the initial move before chasing back on and sprinting to a decent place. Tim Wellens has also proved himself as a man to handle classics distances, doing well at races like Giro D'Lombardia and Plouay in the past. It's strange to think that he's only 23 because he has formidable strength and often animates the races like he did in Fleche Wallonne, when he made the strongest attack on the penultimate climb, and held his advantage until mid-way up the Mur de Huy. He possibly will be a bit disadvantaged by the climbing, but in these one-day races he is far stronger on the climbs than he would be in a Grand Tour. Jelle Vanendert would be the normal leader here, but his crash has cast speculation of how ready he will be. In his best form, he will excel on the steep climbs and make smart moves into the breakaways. He is another who can't afford to sprint against the best, but like AG2R his team is strong enough that they might be able to use team tactics to ensure that they have a good chance in the finale,
Rui Costa is a rider that has all the right attributes to win LBL, but he hasn't yet managed to put all the pieces together. Strong on the steeper climbs, tactically savvy, and with impressive endurance that makes him more of a contender the longer the race is, Costa will be the main man for Lampre-Merida, but he will most likely be isolated in the finale. That isn't so bad for Costa, he won't be expected to do any chasing, but if he misses the crucial move, he won't have much recourse to bringing it back other than prayer. Also, he won't be able to play the tactics like AG2R or Lotto-Soudal, having a man sit on whilst another attacks, and it will limit his options. If he makes the right move at the right time, he has a good chance of winning, but it could be a bit of a lottery for the Portuguese champ.
Roman Kreuziger comes into the race with a lot of confidence after strong performances in Amstel and Fleche, which don't really suit him in the same way as Liege does. 7th last year and 4th in 2011, he has also won Amstel and San Sebastian in the past, and so clearly has the right sort of physicality to ride and win these sort of races. Similar to Costa, he will be isolated at the end of the race, and so will have to pick the right move to follow, but again is he gets in that right move, he has a lot of power, and is a good chance of converting it into a win.
My riders to watch section is proving to be fairly successful, highlighting Tiesj Benoot before his 5th in Flanders and Florian Senchal before his active 17th in Roubaix. Here, Dylan Teuns is the young rider to watch, although the cat is more out of the bag with him. He won a stage of the Tour de l'Avenir, before performing very strongly in the Tour of Britain. This year has been a learning curve for him, but he performed above expectations in Fleche-Wallonne riding to 12th. He is clearly well suited to the longer races and the punchier climbs, so he should be able to go with the favourites for quite a long way here.
The Verdict
A lot of people are predicting a Valverde victory here, but I honestly can't see too many scenarios where he can win, as he is going to be closely marked throughout, and absolutely nobody wants to go with him to the finish. I can see him getting stuck in the second or third group on the road, and getting frustrated at the lack of cooperation, whilst the race rides away from him.
Giampaolo Caruso gets my pick after being so close last year. He will know that 75m was all that stood between him and the biggest win of his career, and that will give him that extra edge of motivation to push through and claim the win this time around.
A lot of people are predicting a Valverde victory here, but I honestly can't see too many scenarios where he can win, as he is going to be closely marked throughout, and absolutely nobody wants to go with him to the finish. I can see him getting stuck in the second or third group on the road, and getting frustrated at the lack of cooperation, whilst the race rides away from him.
Giampaolo Caruso gets my pick after being so close last year. He will know that 75m was all that stood between him and the biggest win of his career, and that will give him that extra edge of motivation to push through and claim the win this time around.