Will it be one for the sprinters this year? Or will we see the weather gods conspire to wreak havoc on the peleton and leave only a select few to contest the finish?
The Course
It's going to be a wet and windy edition of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, sufficiently so that it will definitely make the race more selective and take it away from the pure sprinters and make it one for the hard men. Temperatures will be a cool 6 Degrees Celsius, but the strong 35km/hr WSW wind and rain will make it a miserable day on the bike for most of the peleton, and only those that really excel in these tough conditions will be happy.
The race name is slightly misleading, as the route does not quite make it to Brussels, and riders are turned around 20 kms out from the city and make their way along a different route back to Kuurne. The initial run out to Brussels will mostly be with a strong tailwind at the peleton's back, but there are some juicy potential crosswind sections for a sadistic team to break the race up and dish out some early pain. There will still be a long way to go after these parts, but anyone who watched Stage 2 of Qatar earlier this season will know that it is very possible.
The really tough terrain begins with 110 kms to go with La Houppe, after which the riders will go up 8 more hellingen in until the road flattens out with 51 kms left. The hellingen will initially be tackled with a block headwind until the peleton turns hard right with 82 kms to go and for the next 30 kms they will have to deal with the strong crosswinds as they also tackle the hardest section of the course. The Cote de Trieu (1.3km, 7%) is first and could well see the first major move to attack, but it is famous Oude Kwaremont (2.2km, 4%) where the major favourites will attack. The Holstraat (1.0km, 5.2%) and the Nokereberg (0.8km, 6%) will give the escapees a further chance to put distance between them and the sprinters. They will need all the advantage they can gain, for from 51 kms to go, the riders turn into a headwind for 19 kms, which will advantage the chasing peleton, and whilst the wind is unlikely to be a big factor on the final urban 16 km circuit of Kuurne, the flat terrain will allow the sprinters plenty of time to get back into contention.
It's going to be a wet and windy edition of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, sufficiently so that it will definitely make the race more selective and take it away from the pure sprinters and make it one for the hard men. Temperatures will be a cool 6 Degrees Celsius, but the strong 35km/hr WSW wind and rain will make it a miserable day on the bike for most of the peleton, and only those that really excel in these tough conditions will be happy.
The race name is slightly misleading, as the route does not quite make it to Brussels, and riders are turned around 20 kms out from the city and make their way along a different route back to Kuurne. The initial run out to Brussels will mostly be with a strong tailwind at the peleton's back, but there are some juicy potential crosswind sections for a sadistic team to break the race up and dish out some early pain. There will still be a long way to go after these parts, but anyone who watched Stage 2 of Qatar earlier this season will know that it is very possible.
The really tough terrain begins with 110 kms to go with La Houppe, after which the riders will go up 8 more hellingen in until the road flattens out with 51 kms left. The hellingen will initially be tackled with a block headwind until the peleton turns hard right with 82 kms to go and for the next 30 kms they will have to deal with the strong crosswinds as they also tackle the hardest section of the course. The Cote de Trieu (1.3km, 7%) is first and could well see the first major move to attack, but it is famous Oude Kwaremont (2.2km, 4%) where the major favourites will attack. The Holstraat (1.0km, 5.2%) and the Nokereberg (0.8km, 6%) will give the escapees a further chance to put distance between them and the sprinters. They will need all the advantage they can gain, for from 51 kms to go, the riders turn into a headwind for 19 kms, which will advantage the chasing peleton, and whilst the wind is unlikely to be a big factor on the final urban 16 km circuit of Kuurne, the flat terrain will allow the sprinters plenty of time to get back into contention.
History
Brussels, the city that is at least titularly part of the race, was founded by Charles, the Duke of Lower Lorraine. He was a sixth-generation descendant of Charlemagne, part of the Carolingian family and the younger brother to the king, who got himself exiled after accusing the Queen of adultery with a Bishop (which would conveniently make him the heir to the crown). He proved to be a big pain in exile as he crowned himself with the help of his cousin Otto, who happened to be the King of Aachen. His usurpation failed however, and he retired to his Duchy of Lower Lorraine, and he was passed over for King when his brother's son died, and the throne went to a new family, the Capets.
Brussels, the city that is at least titularly part of the race, was founded by Charles, the Duke of Lower Lorraine. He was a sixth-generation descendant of Charlemagne, part of the Carolingian family and the younger brother to the king, who got himself exiled after accusing the Queen of adultery with a Bishop (which would conveniently make him the heir to the crown). He proved to be a big pain in exile as he crowned himself with the help of his cousin Otto, who happened to be the King of Aachen. His usurpation failed however, and he retired to his Duchy of Lower Lorraine, and he was passed over for King when his brother's son died, and the throne went to a new family, the Capets.
The Tactics
I mentioned the possibility of a crosswind move early in the race, but I don't see it as being particularly likely, given that the course turns around and the same teams that split the race up would then have to do an almighty amount of work to hold off chasing groups into a block headwind. Most of the cobbles specialists will know to keep their powder dry until the crosswinds hit at the same time as the decisive climbing. Then it will be a battle between the attackers and the remnants of the peleton.
Obviously the harder it is the better it favours the attackers, as the peleton will get a lot smaller by attrition, and will be less able to chase down the attacks. The main problem that I foresee for the attackers is that there are a lot of sprinters present, and unless they start getting shelled off the back very early in the piece, they will have significant support from their teams. I think we'll see a lot of marking of moves as well, with Etixx-Quickstep sending the likes of Boonen and van Keirsbulck on policing duties whilst the rest of the team works for Mark Cavendish. There's nothing worse for the cohesion of an attack than having a passenger who can opt not to work because he has a strong sprinter behind. Of course the opposite can also apply, with teams refusing to contribute to the chase because they have a rider up the road, thus saving their strength for a better leadout.
One of the other factors that comes into play is of some sprinters' teams toughening the race up to suit their man. For instance, Alexander Kristoff's chances would be dealt no harm by the race being very hard, and you could well see Katusha pulling out the stops to put the more pure sprinters like Cavendish, Elia Vivani, Matteo Pelluchi and Sam Bennet into difficulty. Too far down that road however, and the race becomes too split up to control, which again favours the attackers, so it is a game of brinksmanship, as quite a few of the tactics in cycling often are.
It will be a close run thing between the attackers and the sprinters, but in the end I think I will favour the attackers... just. The deciding factor was the weather, which will cause crashes on the slick cobbles, and breaks in the peleton due to the strong crosswinds, which will make it very hard to coordinate a chase. It may also take a few of the sprinters out of contention, and force teams who were planning on a sprint finish to instead go on the attack.
I mentioned the possibility of a crosswind move early in the race, but I don't see it as being particularly likely, given that the course turns around and the same teams that split the race up would then have to do an almighty amount of work to hold off chasing groups into a block headwind. Most of the cobbles specialists will know to keep their powder dry until the crosswinds hit at the same time as the decisive climbing. Then it will be a battle between the attackers and the remnants of the peleton.
Obviously the harder it is the better it favours the attackers, as the peleton will get a lot smaller by attrition, and will be less able to chase down the attacks. The main problem that I foresee for the attackers is that there are a lot of sprinters present, and unless they start getting shelled off the back very early in the piece, they will have significant support from their teams. I think we'll see a lot of marking of moves as well, with Etixx-Quickstep sending the likes of Boonen and van Keirsbulck on policing duties whilst the rest of the team works for Mark Cavendish. There's nothing worse for the cohesion of an attack than having a passenger who can opt not to work because he has a strong sprinter behind. Of course the opposite can also apply, with teams refusing to contribute to the chase because they have a rider up the road, thus saving their strength for a better leadout.
One of the other factors that comes into play is of some sprinters' teams toughening the race up to suit their man. For instance, Alexander Kristoff's chances would be dealt no harm by the race being very hard, and you could well see Katusha pulling out the stops to put the more pure sprinters like Cavendish, Elia Vivani, Matteo Pelluchi and Sam Bennet into difficulty. Too far down that road however, and the race becomes too split up to control, which again favours the attackers, so it is a game of brinksmanship, as quite a few of the tactics in cycling often are.
It will be a close run thing between the attackers and the sprinters, but in the end I think I will favour the attackers... just. The deciding factor was the weather, which will cause crashes on the slick cobbles, and breaks in the peleton due to the strong crosswinds, which will make it very hard to coordinate a chase. It may also take a few of the sprinters out of contention, and force teams who were planning on a sprint finish to instead go on the attack.
The Contenders
The contenders will be split up into two groups. Sprinters and attackers, as I have stated above, it will be a close thing, and I'm not going to definitively say that it won't be a bunch sprint.
Sprinters:
Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish, Elia Viviani, Tom Van Asbroeck, Moreno Hofland, Matteo Pelucchi, Nacer Bouhanni, Sam Bennet, Yauheni Hutarovich, Bryan Coquard.
Out of these, Cavendish is the fastest, but Kristoff is the most suited to the expected wet and windy conditions that they will face, and he seems to lose less of his sprint than what others do on tough days.
Attackers:
Ian Stannard, Bradley Wiggins, Sep Vanmarcke, Tom Boonen, Zdenek Stybar, Guillame van Keirsbulck, Phillipe Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Jean-Pierre Drucker.
At this stage of the season it is a bit of a lottery picking a winner from these, especially with the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad the day before, and the possibility that some may use a lot of energy then or even pull out entirely. I'll take Bradley Wiggins as my pick, mostly because he has said that he'll be doing a support role for Stannard in Omloop, so will presumably have some energy left for his own glory in Kuurne.
The Verdict:
Sir Bradley Wiggins' beard will protect him from the worst of the weather enroute to his first classics victory. It will be a superb ride from the TDF champion, initially escaping with a group, but dropping them in the final kilometres as he surges into Paris-Roubaix favouritism.
The contenders will be split up into two groups. Sprinters and attackers, as I have stated above, it will be a close thing, and I'm not going to definitively say that it won't be a bunch sprint.
Sprinters:
Alexander Kristoff, Mark Cavendish, Elia Viviani, Tom Van Asbroeck, Moreno Hofland, Matteo Pelucchi, Nacer Bouhanni, Sam Bennet, Yauheni Hutarovich, Bryan Coquard.
Out of these, Cavendish is the fastest, but Kristoff is the most suited to the expected wet and windy conditions that they will face, and he seems to lose less of his sprint than what others do on tough days.
Attackers:
Ian Stannard, Bradley Wiggins, Sep Vanmarcke, Tom Boonen, Zdenek Stybar, Guillame van Keirsbulck, Phillipe Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Jean-Pierre Drucker.
At this stage of the season it is a bit of a lottery picking a winner from these, especially with the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad the day before, and the possibility that some may use a lot of energy then or even pull out entirely. I'll take Bradley Wiggins as my pick, mostly because he has said that he'll be doing a support role for Stannard in Omloop, so will presumably have some energy left for his own glory in Kuurne.
The Verdict:
Sir Bradley Wiggins' beard will protect him from the worst of the weather enroute to his first classics victory. It will be a superb ride from the TDF champion, initially escaping with a group, but dropping them in the final kilometres as he surges into Paris-Roubaix favouritism.