The oldest race in Australia is in for its 62nd edition, and it should be a good one. Kicking off with a prologue TT, the sprinters will then get their chance and the finale will come on the final day to Arthur's Seat.
The Course
The initial prologue TT is only 2.1 kms long, but could provide some gaps as it is fairly hilly and technical. Stages 1, 2 and 3 should be for the quick men, though there is a big climb on stage 3 that could shed some of the sprinters. The real decider for the GC will be the final stage, which sees three ascensions of Arthur's Seat (3.7km at 7%), with the last ending in a summit finish. Only the stronger climbers in this field will win this one.
The Tactics:
There's only one World Tour team fronting up for this race, Orica-Greenedge, but there are also a host of pretty strong continental squads that will take the race to them, as well as the local squads for which this will be a season highlight. Teams are small, with only 6 riders apiece allowed, so it will be harder to control the race, and could make for some exciting racing. Enough teams have sprinters and hopes for high placings to ensure that the break gets brought back on stages 1 and 2. Stage 3 could well be different, with a big climb up Mt Macedon having the potential to shape the race. There's still 60 kms to go from the top, so I doubt we'll see a dangerous break make significant time. A break of the right composition could be allowed to go however, so it would only be a small surprise to see this one taken by a breakaway. That would obviously have the opportunity to shape the battle for the GC, as any gaps to that point will be small.
The decisive day will be Stage 4 to Arthur's Seat, which whilst not being the hardest of climbs, will still sort the wheat from the chaff. A lot of teams know that only 4-5 riders will be favourites should it come to the last ascent of the climb on equal terms, so they will try to escape. This could be a winning move as none of the other teams are particularly strong, especially with only 6 riders each. Aggression will probably carry the day here, and picking the right move will be key to winning the race.
The Contenders:
Defending champion Simon Clarke deserves to be on this list, but I'm not sure he's even the favourite in his own team. He showed good form in the Nationals and sprinted to a creditable 10th and followed it up with 2nd in the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, but he wasn't the strongest in his team up Willunga Hill, a climb which is very similar to Arthur's Seat. The strongest was Cameron Meyer, who set a fast tempo up the hill to stop the attacks, well at least until Richie Porte decided to put the afterburners on. Meyer and Clarke will most likely form a dual threat, with one joining dangerous attacks, whilst the other sits and saves energy.
Franco Pellizotti surprisingly makes the trip down to Australia for this race, with his main targets presumably coming later in the season. He's not bad early in the season in general, but I wouldn't expect him to be at his best here, even more so at his advanced age.
From there, at the opposite end of the age scale lies Robert Power, who is the big young hype rider around Australia at the moment. His 2nd in the Tour de l'Avenir is a good indicator of his potential, and he showed some nice form in the Cadel Evans Road Race, on the attack and looking strong. I would be surprised to see him win here, in what will be a very tactical race, but if gets in the right move he will be very hard to stop.
Lachlan Morton is a good young climber, who struggled at World Tour level, but nonetheless has a fair amount of talent. He showed that on the attack in National Championships, and in pretty big races like the Tour of Utah and the USA Pro Challenge, where he achieved high placings. Also worth a mention is his older brother Angus, who makes his return to the pro peleton after retiring in 2010 at the age of 21. Since returning, he was 3rd in Jegagh Malaysia, against some very handy riders, and then 7th in the National Championships. He's probably lacking the punch that others possess on the climbs, but is nonetheless a handy rider. Both will ride for Jelly Belly-Maxis in the regular season but front up for the KordaMentha Australian National team here.
The Great Britain National team has also sent a squad, with it being hard to tell who will be their most likely contender, with little exposed form. Best known and the oldest, is 22-year old Josh Edmonson, who is looking for a new contract after being rejected by Sky. More of a classics type of racer, he still has the ability to be up there with the best.
Joe Cooper probably represents the best chance of a win for the National Road Series teams. The current champion of the NRS, as well as the New Zealand Road Race championships, Cooper will be backed by a strong Avanti team.
I could keep going for awhile, but I'll be succinct and merely say that Sam Spokes, Lachlan Norris, Lucas Euser, Tanner Putt and Serge Pauwels could all vie for the victory here.
The Verdict:
Very tough one to pick here, but I'll go with Joe Cooper who has good form and has great power, but won't be marked by the World Tour teams. Avanti bring a strong team in support of him here, and they could well deliver him to a big win.
The initial prologue TT is only 2.1 kms long, but could provide some gaps as it is fairly hilly and technical. Stages 1, 2 and 3 should be for the quick men, though there is a big climb on stage 3 that could shed some of the sprinters. The real decider for the GC will be the final stage, which sees three ascensions of Arthur's Seat (3.7km at 7%), with the last ending in a summit finish. Only the stronger climbers in this field will win this one.
The Tactics:
There's only one World Tour team fronting up for this race, Orica-Greenedge, but there are also a host of pretty strong continental squads that will take the race to them, as well as the local squads for which this will be a season highlight. Teams are small, with only 6 riders apiece allowed, so it will be harder to control the race, and could make for some exciting racing. Enough teams have sprinters and hopes for high placings to ensure that the break gets brought back on stages 1 and 2. Stage 3 could well be different, with a big climb up Mt Macedon having the potential to shape the race. There's still 60 kms to go from the top, so I doubt we'll see a dangerous break make significant time. A break of the right composition could be allowed to go however, so it would only be a small surprise to see this one taken by a breakaway. That would obviously have the opportunity to shape the battle for the GC, as any gaps to that point will be small.
The decisive day will be Stage 4 to Arthur's Seat, which whilst not being the hardest of climbs, will still sort the wheat from the chaff. A lot of teams know that only 4-5 riders will be favourites should it come to the last ascent of the climb on equal terms, so they will try to escape. This could be a winning move as none of the other teams are particularly strong, especially with only 6 riders each. Aggression will probably carry the day here, and picking the right move will be key to winning the race.
The Contenders:
Defending champion Simon Clarke deserves to be on this list, but I'm not sure he's even the favourite in his own team. He showed good form in the Nationals and sprinted to a creditable 10th and followed it up with 2nd in the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, but he wasn't the strongest in his team up Willunga Hill, a climb which is very similar to Arthur's Seat. The strongest was Cameron Meyer, who set a fast tempo up the hill to stop the attacks, well at least until Richie Porte decided to put the afterburners on. Meyer and Clarke will most likely form a dual threat, with one joining dangerous attacks, whilst the other sits and saves energy.
Franco Pellizotti surprisingly makes the trip down to Australia for this race, with his main targets presumably coming later in the season. He's not bad early in the season in general, but I wouldn't expect him to be at his best here, even more so at his advanced age.
From there, at the opposite end of the age scale lies Robert Power, who is the big young hype rider around Australia at the moment. His 2nd in the Tour de l'Avenir is a good indicator of his potential, and he showed some nice form in the Cadel Evans Road Race, on the attack and looking strong. I would be surprised to see him win here, in what will be a very tactical race, but if gets in the right move he will be very hard to stop.
Lachlan Morton is a good young climber, who struggled at World Tour level, but nonetheless has a fair amount of talent. He showed that on the attack in National Championships, and in pretty big races like the Tour of Utah and the USA Pro Challenge, where he achieved high placings. Also worth a mention is his older brother Angus, who makes his return to the pro peleton after retiring in 2010 at the age of 21. Since returning, he was 3rd in Jegagh Malaysia, against some very handy riders, and then 7th in the National Championships. He's probably lacking the punch that others possess on the climbs, but is nonetheless a handy rider. Both will ride for Jelly Belly-Maxis in the regular season but front up for the KordaMentha Australian National team here.
The Great Britain National team has also sent a squad, with it being hard to tell who will be their most likely contender, with little exposed form. Best known and the oldest, is 22-year old Josh Edmonson, who is looking for a new contract after being rejected by Sky. More of a classics type of racer, he still has the ability to be up there with the best.
Joe Cooper probably represents the best chance of a win for the National Road Series teams. The current champion of the NRS, as well as the New Zealand Road Race championships, Cooper will be backed by a strong Avanti team.
I could keep going for awhile, but I'll be succinct and merely say that Sam Spokes, Lachlan Norris, Lucas Euser, Tanner Putt and Serge Pauwels could all vie for the victory here.
The Verdict:
Very tough one to pick here, but I'll go with Joe Cooper who has good form and has great power, but won't be marked by the World Tour teams. Avanti bring a strong team in support of him here, and they could well deliver him to a big win.