Stage 5 proved slightly more eventful than expected, with only Mikel Landa managing to follow the favourites, with Rigoberto Uran further distanced, along with all the other GC candidates. The break stayed away as predicted however, unfortunately Axel Domont couldn't finish it off, but Jan Polanc, another young climber, was very impressive to escape his companions and survive to the finish. Stage 6 should be a return to nice predictability, with a sprint finish in the offing.
The Course
It is the longest stage of the Giro so far at 183 kms, but it will be a welcome break for most of the peleton as the terrain is almost entirely flat, and they will mostly be able to roll along, aside from a middle section which rolls more than it climbs. The one categorised climb comes with 90 kms remaining, although the rolling terrain doesn't end until 55 kms to go. There will nonetheless be plenty of time to recapture the break, and none but the most optimistic of escapees will try their hand on this parcours.
The run-in to the finish is non-technical and all should get their chance on a wide finishing straight.
The weather is predicted to remain fine, and the wind to remain light, although it will be a headwind for most of the race, as if the break wasn't already doomed.
It is the longest stage of the Giro so far at 183 kms, but it will be a welcome break for most of the peleton as the terrain is almost entirely flat, and they will mostly be able to roll along, aside from a middle section which rolls more than it climbs. The one categorised climb comes with 90 kms remaining, although the rolling terrain doesn't end until 55 kms to go. There will nonetheless be plenty of time to recapture the break, and none but the most optimistic of escapees will try their hand on this parcours.
The run-in to the finish is non-technical and all should get their chance on a wide finishing straight.
The weather is predicted to remain fine, and the wind to remain light, although it will be a headwind for most of the race, as if the break wasn't already doomed.
The Tactics
After a few stages for the climbers, we are back to the sprinter's terrain, and despite the climbs in the middle of the day it will almost definitely be a sprint finish in Castiglione della Pescaia. Teams like Trek, Lotto-Jumbo and Lotto-Soudal have been sitting in the grupetto, saving up their legs for today. They'll be very happy to spend the day on the front after letting a weak break go up the road, save energy on the climbs in the middle section and reel them back in on the run in to the finish. The last corner comes with 2.3 kms to go, so there will be a drag race for the sprint teams for the line, and very little chance of a late attack catching the sprinting teams off-guard.
After a few stages for the climbers, we are back to the sprinter's terrain, and despite the climbs in the middle of the day it will almost definitely be a sprint finish in Castiglione della Pescaia. Teams like Trek, Lotto-Jumbo and Lotto-Soudal have been sitting in the grupetto, saving up their legs for today. They'll be very happy to spend the day on the front after letting a weak break go up the road, save energy on the climbs in the middle section and reel them back in on the run in to the finish. The last corner comes with 2.3 kms to go, so there will be a drag race for the sprint teams for the line, and very little chance of a late attack catching the sprinting teams off-guard.
The Contenders
Stage 2 was a non-typical sprint, about half the normal leadout men were missing due to crashes or being held up or dropped. The resulting sprint was up a rise, which allowed Viviani to come from behind after a number of others hit out too early, and allowed him to make up for his initial poor position.
Andre Greipel has been sitting in the cool room off the back of the peleton for the past few days, and has had plenty of time to reflect on his Stage 2 performance, when he was swamped late by Viviani and Hofland. Greipel's train was almost non-existant in the final kilometre, and he had to jump early to counter moves on the other side of the road. He should have a better position to start his sprint in this stage, and will be much better suited by a flat finish than the rising one in Genoa.
Sascha Modolo was in a very good spot in Stage 2 before being shown the barriers by Nizzolo in the final 500 metres. He chucked a tantrum, but there was no action taken by the commisaires, and I agree, it wasn't the most aggressive move by Nizzolo, and Modolo probably needed to protect his position more in the sprint. He will have to learn that lesson here, as he has one of the best leadouts, with Ferrari and Richeze doing a very good job last time out. He is in good form and needs to show it.
Moreno Hofland wasn't really on my list of top sprinters before the Giro, but I did take notice of his win against a fast Pelucchi, and he backed it up with an impressive 2nd in stage 2. He was suited by the finish, as a small slope is the sort of finish where he has excelled in the past, but he is clearly going very fast at the moment, and he is also climbing well at the moment, notably being one of the last sprinters dropped on Stage 3. So he won't be inconvenienced by the climbing in the middle of the race, but he will be held back by his lack of team support, Robert Wagner should be able to make it to the finish this time, but then again he's a poor climber, and could well be dropped.
Elia Viviani was again poorly positioned, going into the sprint about 10 back, before following Hofland, and coming over the top of the Dutchman in the final 50m. He is going very well at the moment, and if he can sort out his positioning problems, he will be the favourite to win. He did benefit from the unique nature of the sprint, with crashes having eliminated quite a lot of leadout men of the other teams, meaning that the sprinters got left on their own a bit earlier, which opened the race up for those coming from behind, especially with the rise coming into the finish. He will have a tougher time here, as he will remain with only minimal support, whereas almost his rivals will be better served in this stage.
Giacomo Nizzolo had a good sprint in Stage 2, but started too early and from the wrong side of the road. He did benefit from having Matthew's wheel, and didn't manage to beat the Australian by much in the end. So he's maybe missing a few percent, but he will be better suited to a flat sprint, he'll have a much better leadout this time and he's going to have to do less fighting for wheels.
Luka Mezgec did a solid sprint to 4th on Stage 2, but he hasn't convinced me that he is in top form at the moment, and despite having a better leadout at his disposal at the end of this stage, it would still surprise me if he seriously challenges the top sprinters here.
Matteo Pelucchi is having a horror start to his Giro, suffering an ankle injury in his Stage 2 crash, struggling home there, and on every subsequent stage to be sitting in the lantern rouge postion. Fair play to him, he is sticking in there, but I think it might be a bit too early to expect too much from the IAM fast man, especially after some very tough days in the saddle. Instead IAM will most likely support Heinrich Haussler, who is a canny rider, but really lacks the top-end speed to win here.
JJ Lobato was another rider who got roughed up in a Stage 2 crash, and failed to recover for Stage 3, where he probably would have normally survived the climbing to contest the finish. He does prefer a hillier course and finish, but you can't count him out from any sprint on the form he has showed this year. He will have to overcome his lack of team support, but again, he has vastly improved on this side of the sprinting equation as well, so he could be in for a good result.
Nicola Ruffoni will be keen to make an impression after finding Stage 2 a little too hard. He will have a pretty decent leadout, and he is very fast in a flat sprint when he is nicely wound up. Bardiani have been pretty active so far this Giro, and will be keen to give Ruffoni every opportunity to show himself, and will have Battaglin and Colbrelli at his disposal in the finale.
If you can remember way back to the Tour of Dubai, Alexander Porsev was mixing it up with the likes of Cavendish, Viviani and Guardini in the sprint finishes. Stage 2 was a bit hard for a big unit like the Russian, who looks more like a track sprinter than a road rider, but this stage will be much more suited to his abilities. He struggles a bit with positioning, and without a dedicated leadout to overcome that difficulty, he will probably be restricted to going for a top 5-10 finish.
Grega Bole, Gianni Meersman, Manuel Belleti, Daniele Colli and Michael Matthews could all place in the top few spots, but others have to be more favoured in this stage.
Stage 2 was a non-typical sprint, about half the normal leadout men were missing due to crashes or being held up or dropped. The resulting sprint was up a rise, which allowed Viviani to come from behind after a number of others hit out too early, and allowed him to make up for his initial poor position.
Andre Greipel has been sitting in the cool room off the back of the peleton for the past few days, and has had plenty of time to reflect on his Stage 2 performance, when he was swamped late by Viviani and Hofland. Greipel's train was almost non-existant in the final kilometre, and he had to jump early to counter moves on the other side of the road. He should have a better position to start his sprint in this stage, and will be much better suited by a flat finish than the rising one in Genoa.
Sascha Modolo was in a very good spot in Stage 2 before being shown the barriers by Nizzolo in the final 500 metres. He chucked a tantrum, but there was no action taken by the commisaires, and I agree, it wasn't the most aggressive move by Nizzolo, and Modolo probably needed to protect his position more in the sprint. He will have to learn that lesson here, as he has one of the best leadouts, with Ferrari and Richeze doing a very good job last time out. He is in good form and needs to show it.
Moreno Hofland wasn't really on my list of top sprinters before the Giro, but I did take notice of his win against a fast Pelucchi, and he backed it up with an impressive 2nd in stage 2. He was suited by the finish, as a small slope is the sort of finish where he has excelled in the past, but he is clearly going very fast at the moment, and he is also climbing well at the moment, notably being one of the last sprinters dropped on Stage 3. So he won't be inconvenienced by the climbing in the middle of the race, but he will be held back by his lack of team support, Robert Wagner should be able to make it to the finish this time, but then again he's a poor climber, and could well be dropped.
Elia Viviani was again poorly positioned, going into the sprint about 10 back, before following Hofland, and coming over the top of the Dutchman in the final 50m. He is going very well at the moment, and if he can sort out his positioning problems, he will be the favourite to win. He did benefit from the unique nature of the sprint, with crashes having eliminated quite a lot of leadout men of the other teams, meaning that the sprinters got left on their own a bit earlier, which opened the race up for those coming from behind, especially with the rise coming into the finish. He will have a tougher time here, as he will remain with only minimal support, whereas almost his rivals will be better served in this stage.
Giacomo Nizzolo had a good sprint in Stage 2, but started too early and from the wrong side of the road. He did benefit from having Matthew's wheel, and didn't manage to beat the Australian by much in the end. So he's maybe missing a few percent, but he will be better suited to a flat sprint, he'll have a much better leadout this time and he's going to have to do less fighting for wheels.
Luka Mezgec did a solid sprint to 4th on Stage 2, but he hasn't convinced me that he is in top form at the moment, and despite having a better leadout at his disposal at the end of this stage, it would still surprise me if he seriously challenges the top sprinters here.
Matteo Pelucchi is having a horror start to his Giro, suffering an ankle injury in his Stage 2 crash, struggling home there, and on every subsequent stage to be sitting in the lantern rouge postion. Fair play to him, he is sticking in there, but I think it might be a bit too early to expect too much from the IAM fast man, especially after some very tough days in the saddle. Instead IAM will most likely support Heinrich Haussler, who is a canny rider, but really lacks the top-end speed to win here.
JJ Lobato was another rider who got roughed up in a Stage 2 crash, and failed to recover for Stage 3, where he probably would have normally survived the climbing to contest the finish. He does prefer a hillier course and finish, but you can't count him out from any sprint on the form he has showed this year. He will have to overcome his lack of team support, but again, he has vastly improved on this side of the sprinting equation as well, so he could be in for a good result.
Nicola Ruffoni will be keen to make an impression after finding Stage 2 a little too hard. He will have a pretty decent leadout, and he is very fast in a flat sprint when he is nicely wound up. Bardiani have been pretty active so far this Giro, and will be keen to give Ruffoni every opportunity to show himself, and will have Battaglin and Colbrelli at his disposal in the finale.
If you can remember way back to the Tour of Dubai, Alexander Porsev was mixing it up with the likes of Cavendish, Viviani and Guardini in the sprint finishes. Stage 2 was a bit hard for a big unit like the Russian, who looks more like a track sprinter than a road rider, but this stage will be much more suited to his abilities. He struggles a bit with positioning, and without a dedicated leadout to overcome that difficulty, he will probably be restricted to going for a top 5-10 finish.
Grega Bole, Gianni Meersman, Manuel Belleti, Daniele Colli and Michael Matthews could all place in the top few spots, but others have to be more favoured in this stage.
The Verdict
I think we'll see a more orderly sprint here, and Andre Greipel should benefit from that more than most. I think Sascha Modolo will go very close, but Greipel just has that speed edge that wins him so many races.
I think we'll see a more orderly sprint here, and Andre Greipel should benefit from that more than most. I think Sascha Modolo will go very close, but Greipel just has that speed edge that wins him so many races.