The first summit finish of the Giro is sure to firm up the GC a bit, with most of the non-climbers sure to lose time on this 17.3 km climb to Abetone. The finish probably won't be hard enough to cause big gaps between the favourites, but even the last stage, which on paper looked a bit easier, saw Rigoberto Uran lose 38 seconds to the other big contenders. Ilhnur Zakarin had a horror day, and won't be playing any part in the GC battle, but that may free him up to go after stages, or the mountains jersey.
The Course
The racing this stage will be somewhat different to the barely controlled chaos of Stage 4, with the terrain here much easier to control for the main teams. The initial 47.5 kms are flat, and lead to the first categorised climb of the day, the Foce Carpinelli (10.1 kms, 5%) which shouldn't see much action, being located so far from the finish. From the top there is a rolling descent for 33 kms leading into the uncategorised climb up to Barga (5.9 kms, 2.8%). A sharp descent follows and from there it is all uphill for the final 52 kms, first a false flat into the foot of the main climb, and short, sharper climb, short descent, and then they are on the climb proper, which as you can see, has its harder sections in the middle. Whilst that middle 8 kms or so of the climb are pretty hard at 7%, the start is a very manageable 2.8% and the final 5 kms average 4.7%.
The racing this stage will be somewhat different to the barely controlled chaos of Stage 4, with the terrain here much easier to control for the main teams. The initial 47.5 kms are flat, and lead to the first categorised climb of the day, the Foce Carpinelli (10.1 kms, 5%) which shouldn't see much action, being located so far from the finish. From the top there is a rolling descent for 33 kms leading into the uncategorised climb up to Barga (5.9 kms, 2.8%). A sharp descent follows and from there it is all uphill for the final 52 kms, first a false flat into the foot of the main climb, and short, sharper climb, short descent, and then they are on the climb proper, which as you can see, has its harder sections in the middle. Whilst that middle 8 kms or so of the climb are pretty hard at 7%, the start is a very manageable 2.8% and the final 5 kms average 4.7%.
The Tactics
The break will be a very competitive one to get into today, with a good chance that the move could stay away to the finish. The initial 47.5 kms are flat, and means that there won't be 30 man break going clear, and the riders that do go are going to be well down on the general classification. There are a lot of very good climbers who have already lost a lot of time however, so it could be a very talented bunch that goes up the road. OGE will be happy enough to see a non-threatening break go, as they aren't particularly set on winning the stage, and instead hope that Esteban Chaves can last with the favourites to claim the pink jersey. Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana and Sky shouldn't be overly motivated to chase down the break either, they'll most likely save their energies for the final climb.
What this stage lacks is an out and out favourite, a mountain sprinter like a Valverde or Rodriguez who excels in these uphill finishes. Probably the closest to favourites, in these conditions would be TJ Slagter and Ilhnur Zakarin, both of whom have a good punchy sprint and can climb with the best on the lesser slopes. However, so far both have been way off the pace. There might be an argument that Slagter is biding his time, but today's stage was right up his alley and he finished in the gruppetto. Ihnur Zakarin came with lofty ambitions after winning the Tour of Romandie, but lost a staggering 17 minutes yesterday, for unexplained reasons. Maybe both have excuses, but clearly they won't be in great shape today, and their teams certainly won't support them. A couple of riders that are in form and suited to this stage and won't be riding for the stage win are Esteban Chaves and Paolo Tiralongo, Chaves because his team are pretty exhausted at this stage, and his goal will be the pink jersey, and Tiralongo because his team are all-in for Aru, and his goals are secondary to that of the team.
So that's the long way round of saying that the break will probably establish a big lead, and even though Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably set a high tempo on the final climb, I expect that a good climber with a big lead at the bottom will be able to hold them off. Of course, it just takes one team to decide that they've got the favourite for the stage and to doom the breakaway to be the first half of post-stage race reports.
Even if the break is brought back, I wouldn't expect the main GC guys to win the stage, as each will be marked heavily by the others, and it will be much more open for a second-tier climber to escape and win the stage, especially on the easier gradients that characterise the final 5 kms of this climb.
The break will be a very competitive one to get into today, with a good chance that the move could stay away to the finish. The initial 47.5 kms are flat, and means that there won't be 30 man break going clear, and the riders that do go are going to be well down on the general classification. There are a lot of very good climbers who have already lost a lot of time however, so it could be a very talented bunch that goes up the road. OGE will be happy enough to see a non-threatening break go, as they aren't particularly set on winning the stage, and instead hope that Esteban Chaves can last with the favourites to claim the pink jersey. Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana and Sky shouldn't be overly motivated to chase down the break either, they'll most likely save their energies for the final climb.
What this stage lacks is an out and out favourite, a mountain sprinter like a Valverde or Rodriguez who excels in these uphill finishes. Probably the closest to favourites, in these conditions would be TJ Slagter and Ilhnur Zakarin, both of whom have a good punchy sprint and can climb with the best on the lesser slopes. However, so far both have been way off the pace. There might be an argument that Slagter is biding his time, but today's stage was right up his alley and he finished in the gruppetto. Ihnur Zakarin came with lofty ambitions after winning the Tour of Romandie, but lost a staggering 17 minutes yesterday, for unexplained reasons. Maybe both have excuses, but clearly they won't be in great shape today, and their teams certainly won't support them. A couple of riders that are in form and suited to this stage and won't be riding for the stage win are Esteban Chaves and Paolo Tiralongo, Chaves because his team are pretty exhausted at this stage, and his goal will be the pink jersey, and Tiralongo because his team are all-in for Aru, and his goals are secondary to that of the team.
So that's the long way round of saying that the break will probably establish a big lead, and even though Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably set a high tempo on the final climb, I expect that a good climber with a big lead at the bottom will be able to hold them off. Of course, it just takes one team to decide that they've got the favourite for the stage and to doom the breakaway to be the first half of post-stage race reports.
Even if the break is brought back, I wouldn't expect the main GC guys to win the stage, as each will be marked heavily by the others, and it will be much more open for a second-tier climber to escape and win the stage, especially on the easier gradients that characterise the final 5 kms of this climb.
The Contenders
I've got a very long list of mountain breakaway possibilities, 72 riders long, and I'll try to whittle that down each stage depending on the race situation, the individual stage characteristics, form, etc. I'll also include a few second-tier climbers for the win if the race comes back together.
AG2R have seen their main aim of the Giro crash and suffer horrific injuries, and whilst of course they and the rest of the world hope for a speedy Pozzovivo recovery, they will need to refocus on the race and salvaging what they can. It will allow more freedom for a number of the team's lieutenants and I think this stage will best suit Axel Domont out of those that are left. He is a young, talented climber, and as we saw with Formolo yesterday, that isn't a bad combination to take a stage win, as the other riders tend to underestimate you.
Maciej Paterski is fast becoming a star in the pro peleton with a famous victory in Volta a Catalunya's first stage, less than 24 hours after he had ridden Milan San-Remo. He was top 10 in both Brabantes Pijl and Amstel Gold, and he bossed the Tour of Croatia, taking a win and 2nd on the way to winning the overall by over a minute. The queen stage there was very similar to this stage, with a very long climb to finish, and Paterski should be well suited. He showed that he was in good form in Stage 2, and will relish an opportunity where the peleton doesn't keep such a tight leash on the break's advantage.
Sebastian Reichenbach is another youngster who has some pretty exciting potential, his 24th recently in Liege-Bastogne-Liege shows that he has a very good pair of climbing legs, and he has shown himself very well in breakaways in the past, without enough luck for him to grab a win. He initially came to the Giro with hopes of riding a good GC, but after crashing on the first stage and losing time, he had a mechanical as Astana upped the pace midway through the stage, and never made it back to the flying leaders' group, eventually sitting up and drifting in 13 minutes back. He will itching to hit back and this stage offers him a good opportunity.
Out of the second-tier GC guys, Damiano Cunego is probably the one with the biggest pedigree, having won the race in 2004. He is a competitor, and will sense any tactical stalemate between the big GC contenders and exploit it to his advantage. He is riding with Nippo Vini-Fantini now, and that means that he'll have no support at the pointy end, but there won't be many domestiques around at that point for anyone, so his disadvantage is lessened.
Yuriy Trofimov is riding well this race, and will have his sights set on his best ever GC result in a Grand Tour. His 14th in the 2014 Tour de France and his 13th in the 2013 Giro D'Italia are his current best, but with so many other riders falling by the wayside, Trofimov has been riding solidly. He's sitting 19th at the moment, but with the elimination of non-climbers, that is more like 10th and he'll be very keen to stay in that top 10 and even push higher. He's coming into the peak of his career, at 31 years of age, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him take the win on this stage.
Esteban Chaves is also one for the stage if the race comes back together, his team won't chase, but if other teams bring it back and he's there in the finale, he could pinch it to continue Orica-Greenedge's great Giro. One concern is whether he will have the legs after being in the break on two consecutive stages, but he will take heart from the fact that he was able to match the GC contenders when they caught the break on the final climb, and even took 5th in the sprint, which is pretty impressive for a sub 60kg guy. He does actually have a decent uphill sprint, as he showed in the Tour of Beijing last year, when he finished just off Dan Martin and in front of Phillipe Gilbert in a much more explosive finale than we are likely to see in this stage.
The Verdict
I like Maciej Paterski for this stage, indeed any of the riders above and lots of others have a good chance, but Paterski has proven himself very good at getting into breaks in the first place, which is a hard skill. He has the strength and skill to finish it off, so hopefully he goes on to take an important victory for what has been an active CCC Sprandi-Polkowice.
I've got a very long list of mountain breakaway possibilities, 72 riders long, and I'll try to whittle that down each stage depending on the race situation, the individual stage characteristics, form, etc. I'll also include a few second-tier climbers for the win if the race comes back together.
AG2R have seen their main aim of the Giro crash and suffer horrific injuries, and whilst of course they and the rest of the world hope for a speedy Pozzovivo recovery, they will need to refocus on the race and salvaging what they can. It will allow more freedom for a number of the team's lieutenants and I think this stage will best suit Axel Domont out of those that are left. He is a young, talented climber, and as we saw with Formolo yesterday, that isn't a bad combination to take a stage win, as the other riders tend to underestimate you.
Maciej Paterski is fast becoming a star in the pro peleton with a famous victory in Volta a Catalunya's first stage, less than 24 hours after he had ridden Milan San-Remo. He was top 10 in both Brabantes Pijl and Amstel Gold, and he bossed the Tour of Croatia, taking a win and 2nd on the way to winning the overall by over a minute. The queen stage there was very similar to this stage, with a very long climb to finish, and Paterski should be well suited. He showed that he was in good form in Stage 2, and will relish an opportunity where the peleton doesn't keep such a tight leash on the break's advantage.
Sebastian Reichenbach is another youngster who has some pretty exciting potential, his 24th recently in Liege-Bastogne-Liege shows that he has a very good pair of climbing legs, and he has shown himself very well in breakaways in the past, without enough luck for him to grab a win. He initially came to the Giro with hopes of riding a good GC, but after crashing on the first stage and losing time, he had a mechanical as Astana upped the pace midway through the stage, and never made it back to the flying leaders' group, eventually sitting up and drifting in 13 minutes back. He will itching to hit back and this stage offers him a good opportunity.
Out of the second-tier GC guys, Damiano Cunego is probably the one with the biggest pedigree, having won the race in 2004. He is a competitor, and will sense any tactical stalemate between the big GC contenders and exploit it to his advantage. He is riding with Nippo Vini-Fantini now, and that means that he'll have no support at the pointy end, but there won't be many domestiques around at that point for anyone, so his disadvantage is lessened.
Yuriy Trofimov is riding well this race, and will have his sights set on his best ever GC result in a Grand Tour. His 14th in the 2014 Tour de France and his 13th in the 2013 Giro D'Italia are his current best, but with so many other riders falling by the wayside, Trofimov has been riding solidly. He's sitting 19th at the moment, but with the elimination of non-climbers, that is more like 10th and he'll be very keen to stay in that top 10 and even push higher. He's coming into the peak of his career, at 31 years of age, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him take the win on this stage.
Esteban Chaves is also one for the stage if the race comes back together, his team won't chase, but if other teams bring it back and he's there in the finale, he could pinch it to continue Orica-Greenedge's great Giro. One concern is whether he will have the legs after being in the break on two consecutive stages, but he will take heart from the fact that he was able to match the GC contenders when they caught the break on the final climb, and even took 5th in the sprint, which is pretty impressive for a sub 60kg guy. He does actually have a decent uphill sprint, as he showed in the Tour of Beijing last year, when he finished just off Dan Martin and in front of Phillipe Gilbert in a much more explosive finale than we are likely to see in this stage.
The Verdict
I like Maciej Paterski for this stage, indeed any of the riders above and lots of others have a good chance, but Paterski has proven himself very good at getting into breaks in the first place, which is a hard skill. He has the strength and skill to finish it off, so hopefully he goes on to take an important victory for what has been an active CCC Sprandi-Polkowice.