A perfect stage for the breakaway, but unfortunately for the opportunists, it falls on the day before the rest day, which may mean that the GC boys will once again want to go toe to toe. There certainly haven't been many days for the GC contenders to rest so far, and this could again turn out to be a day where they really are pushed hard.
The Course
A quintessential medium mountains day, a bunch of pretty hard climbs, but not too much towards the end, which should make it hard for the GC contenders to do much damage to their foes.
A quintessential medium mountains day, a bunch of pretty hard climbs, but not too much towards the end, which should make it hard for the GC contenders to do much damage to their foes.
The Tactics
There will a lot of competition to get into the breakaway today, but it shouldn't be a huge group that goes up the road, as the GC teams aren't going to be keen to do a huge chase over the tricky terrain today. Most of the hard climbing comes in the middle of the stage, and there's only a short climb 12kms from the finish, with rolling terrain mostly for the last 60 kms or so. Attacks could go from anywhere from the breakaway group really, but the most likely scenario is that it comes down to a sprint from a small group. That may change if one or two teams manage to establish numbers in the break, and that will bring a number of team tactics options into play.
There will a lot of competition to get into the breakaway today, but it shouldn't be a huge group that goes up the road, as the GC teams aren't going to be keen to do a huge chase over the tricky terrain today. Most of the hard climbing comes in the middle of the stage, and there's only a short climb 12kms from the finish, with rolling terrain mostly for the last 60 kms or so. Attacks could go from anywhere from the breakaway group really, but the most likely scenario is that it comes down to a sprint from a small group. That may change if one or two teams manage to establish numbers in the break, and that will bring a number of team tactics options into play.
The Contenders
Giovanni Visconti is riding superbly so far this Giro, well above expectations, and could be allowed to take the maglia rosa today. Contador has been making noises that he doesn't necessarily want to keep the jersey for the moment, as the fatigue on Tinkoff-Saxo is showing. Visconti isn't much of a threat, even if he continues to climb well, he will be outgunned in the time trial and I'd think that he lose 10 minutes plus in the high mountains in any case. He has a good sprint, and excels on these medium mountains stages, and it wouldn't be a big surprise to see him take the win.
Paolo Tiralongo is another who has been performing above expectations in this Giro, an also packs a handy sprint in these sort of stages. He may have to ride in support of Aru, but Astana have been quite ambitious in trying to go after stage wins as well, and this stage offers a better chance to do that than most others. Tiralongo can go into a break, and if worst comes to worst, he can always drop back to Aru to help.
Garmin have a ton of riders that are here just for these stages, and TJ Slagter is probably best suited to this stage of all the riders. He is in pretty average form at the moment however, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go with another option, like Davide Formolo or Davide Villlela. Both are young climbers with very good potential, as Formolo has already shown this Giro.
Carlos Betancur was on the attack yesterday, but it might be a better day for Hubert Dupont today, the flatter finish suits the Frenchman better, and he has the legs to go with a break in the mountains.
Francesco Bongiorno will get in a few breaks at some point in this Giro, and today is as good a day as any for the Italian opportunist. He was of course one of the focuses of spectator-gate last season, receiving an inopportune push from a spectator which caused him to drop his chain when he was one of the front two on the Zoncolan stage. He hung on for third, and anyone with that sort of ability has to be respected on these easier climbs. He may be waiting for a harder day, but he'll probably have more than one attempt at a stage win.
The Verdict
As always with these medium mountains, it's a bit of a crapshoot to see who gets into these breaks, but I think that Tiralongo will be given some freedom, and if he is, he has the form to make this a stage win for Astana.
Giovanni Visconti is riding superbly so far this Giro, well above expectations, and could be allowed to take the maglia rosa today. Contador has been making noises that he doesn't necessarily want to keep the jersey for the moment, as the fatigue on Tinkoff-Saxo is showing. Visconti isn't much of a threat, even if he continues to climb well, he will be outgunned in the time trial and I'd think that he lose 10 minutes plus in the high mountains in any case. He has a good sprint, and excels on these medium mountains stages, and it wouldn't be a big surprise to see him take the win.
Paolo Tiralongo is another who has been performing above expectations in this Giro, an also packs a handy sprint in these sort of stages. He may have to ride in support of Aru, but Astana have been quite ambitious in trying to go after stage wins as well, and this stage offers a better chance to do that than most others. Tiralongo can go into a break, and if worst comes to worst, he can always drop back to Aru to help.
Garmin have a ton of riders that are here just for these stages, and TJ Slagter is probably best suited to this stage of all the riders. He is in pretty average form at the moment however, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go with another option, like Davide Formolo or Davide Villlela. Both are young climbers with very good potential, as Formolo has already shown this Giro.
Carlos Betancur was on the attack yesterday, but it might be a better day for Hubert Dupont today, the flatter finish suits the Frenchman better, and he has the legs to go with a break in the mountains.
Francesco Bongiorno will get in a few breaks at some point in this Giro, and today is as good a day as any for the Italian opportunist. He was of course one of the focuses of spectator-gate last season, receiving an inopportune push from a spectator which caused him to drop his chain when he was one of the front two on the Zoncolan stage. He hung on for third, and anyone with that sort of ability has to be respected on these easier climbs. He may be waiting for a harder day, but he'll probably have more than one attempt at a stage win.
The Verdict
As always with these medium mountains, it's a bit of a crapshoot to see who gets into these breaks, but I think that Tiralongo will be given some freedom, and if he is, he has the form to make this a stage win for Astana.