A big day for the GC contenders awaits, with two very long clombs in store. So far there has been little to separate Porte, Contador and Aru, but this may all change on the hardest course of the Giro to date.
The Course
Essentially two very long climbs make up the focus of this stage, with one in the first and the other in the second, which ends in a summit finish. The 53 kms to start the stage are flat, and will be the scene of the skirmish to get into the breakaway. The riders will then go up the Forca D' Acero (26 kms, 5%) which is only rated a Category 2, before descending and journeying along the valley to the Campitello Matese (13 kms, 6.9%), rated a Category 1 climb. Both are significantly long climbs, and should really find out who has the legs and who doesn't.
Essentially two very long climbs make up the focus of this stage, with one in the first and the other in the second, which ends in a summit finish. The 53 kms to start the stage are flat, and will be the scene of the skirmish to get into the breakaway. The riders will then go up the Forca D' Acero (26 kms, 5%) which is only rated a Category 2, before descending and journeying along the valley to the Campitello Matese (13 kms, 6.9%), rated a Category 1 climb. Both are significantly long climbs, and should really find out who has the legs and who doesn't.
The Tactics
A stage like this doesn't offer a great chance for the breakaway, as the flat stage start offers any team with interest in the stage victory quite an easy opportunity to control the composition of the break. In addition the long final climb will be tackled a lot slower by the break than by the peleton that will look to really ramp up the pace for the GC battle. I think it unlikely that a strong enough group can get away, but there are some really strong climbers that have lost a lot of time, so it is possible for the break to succeed.
Nonetheless, I expect Astana and Sky to control the break's composition today, and to really try to bring it back by setting a tough pace on the climbs, both to give Aru and Porte a chance to win the stage, but also to try and drop Alberto Contador, and see how he is faring with his injury. The time bonuses on the line will be an added incentive to bring that break back, to enhance any advantage gained on the stage.
It will be interesting to see how Astana use their numbers in the stage, the likes of Landa and Cataldo seem to be in top form at the moment, and could be a part of an aggressive move on Aru's part.
A stage like this doesn't offer a great chance for the breakaway, as the flat stage start offers any team with interest in the stage victory quite an easy opportunity to control the composition of the break. In addition the long final climb will be tackled a lot slower by the break than by the peleton that will look to really ramp up the pace for the GC battle. I think it unlikely that a strong enough group can get away, but there are some really strong climbers that have lost a lot of time, so it is possible for the break to succeed.
Nonetheless, I expect Astana and Sky to control the break's composition today, and to really try to bring it back by setting a tough pace on the climbs, both to give Aru and Porte a chance to win the stage, but also to try and drop Alberto Contador, and see how he is faring with his injury. The time bonuses on the line will be an added incentive to bring that break back, to enhance any advantage gained on the stage.
It will be interesting to see how Astana use their numbers in the stage, the likes of Landa and Cataldo seem to be in top form at the moment, and could be a part of an aggressive move on Aru's part.
The Contenders
If there's anything this year's Giro has shown so far, it is that the Top 3 are cycling well above the ability of those around them. The stage should be fought out between those 3, at least unless there's a situation where they become isolated and another rider takes the opportunity to attack, or maybe Uran has recovered from his reported cold.
Obviously a lot of attention will be on Alberto Contador in this stage, as he attempts his first really tough climbing test after crashing in Stage 6. He didn't appear to be too worried by his injury on the very long Stage 7, even getting out of the saddle once or twice when the cameras were on him to make the point. Nonetheless, even if he isn't debilitated by his injury, he will still be hurting, and it is not very good preparation for an important mountain stage. It might be an important day to have strong teammates on hand, as it might be one for Contador to try and minimise the damage.
Richie Porte hasn't made any big attacks, but has covered all the moves to date pretty easily. The climb up to Abetone was a lot less tricky than what he'll face today, but his form this season is unimpeachable, and he will feel confident in his ability to take the win. He may be isolated a bit earlier than his rivals, as Sky have performed below their expectations so far.
Fabio Aru has looked the most in trouble of the favourites so far, but it is more that he shows when he is hurting, whereas Contador and Porte have better poker faces. Aru was the fastest in the sprint to take the 3rd place bonus seconds, and placed a counter attack once he caught Contador's big attack. He will also probably have Landa and maybe Cataldo in the front group with him, who could be very valuable to Aru, particularly if Contador is dropped early, and the Astana team turns it into a mountain team time trial.
The Verdict
Richie Porte looks like the strongest of the contenders on the climbs so far, and he and Aru will be looking to take the race to Contador on this stage. He has proved himself very strong this season, being the best at the top of almost every mountaintop stage he has contested, and I think we could see him sound an ominous warning to his rivals today.
If there's anything this year's Giro has shown so far, it is that the Top 3 are cycling well above the ability of those around them. The stage should be fought out between those 3, at least unless there's a situation where they become isolated and another rider takes the opportunity to attack, or maybe Uran has recovered from his reported cold.
Obviously a lot of attention will be on Alberto Contador in this stage, as he attempts his first really tough climbing test after crashing in Stage 6. He didn't appear to be too worried by his injury on the very long Stage 7, even getting out of the saddle once or twice when the cameras were on him to make the point. Nonetheless, even if he isn't debilitated by his injury, he will still be hurting, and it is not very good preparation for an important mountain stage. It might be an important day to have strong teammates on hand, as it might be one for Contador to try and minimise the damage.
Richie Porte hasn't made any big attacks, but has covered all the moves to date pretty easily. The climb up to Abetone was a lot less tricky than what he'll face today, but his form this season is unimpeachable, and he will feel confident in his ability to take the win. He may be isolated a bit earlier than his rivals, as Sky have performed below their expectations so far.
Fabio Aru has looked the most in trouble of the favourites so far, but it is more that he shows when he is hurting, whereas Contador and Porte have better poker faces. Aru was the fastest in the sprint to take the 3rd place bonus seconds, and placed a counter attack once he caught Contador's big attack. He will also probably have Landa and maybe Cataldo in the front group with him, who could be very valuable to Aru, particularly if Contador is dropped early, and the Astana team turns it into a mountain team time trial.
The Verdict
Richie Porte looks like the strongest of the contenders on the climbs so far, and he and Aru will be looking to take the race to Contador on this stage. He has proved himself very strong this season, being the best at the top of almost every mountaintop stage he has contested, and I think we could see him sound an ominous warning to his rivals today.