A tough, short stage, which will shake the pure sprinters, and despite the fact that there are 44 kms to go after the last climb, it will be a different type of rider that wins than the ones we saw contest the win yesterday. Of course Matthews is the exception to that rule, he is climbing better than ever this season, and could deliver a victory in pink as he did last season.
The Course
It's a really short stage at only 136 kms, but that normally makes it a really hard day in the saddle for all, as there is a lot more attacking, with riders feeling that the break has a bit more of a chance. It is almost constantly climbing or descending for the first 110 kms, most of that being shallow gradients uphill. These climbs aren't in themselves too hard, but it is likely that they will be ridden aggressively. There are two categorised climbs that are harder, the Colle Caprille (11.8 kms, 3.8%) which comes early in the stage, and the Barbegelata (5.7 kms, 8.1%) which summits with 43.5 kms to go and will likely reduce the peleton drastically and perhaps provide a base for some opportunists to attack. There follows an initially fast and technical descent, which gradually flattens out and it becomes a fast-pedalling effort with about 31 kms remaining, and almost completely flat with 24 kms to go. The finish does hold its technical challenges, and what remains of the peleton will get a bit strung out by a descent and a roundabout near the flame rouge.
It's a really short stage at only 136 kms, but that normally makes it a really hard day in the saddle for all, as there is a lot more attacking, with riders feeling that the break has a bit more of a chance. It is almost constantly climbing or descending for the first 110 kms, most of that being shallow gradients uphill. These climbs aren't in themselves too hard, but it is likely that they will be ridden aggressively. There are two categorised climbs that are harder, the Colle Caprille (11.8 kms, 3.8%) which comes early in the stage, and the Barbegelata (5.7 kms, 8.1%) which summits with 43.5 kms to go and will likely reduce the peleton drastically and perhaps provide a base for some opportunists to attack. There follows an initially fast and technical descent, which gradually flattens out and it becomes a fast-pedalling effort with about 31 kms remaining, and almost completely flat with 24 kms to go. The finish does hold its technical challenges, and what remains of the peleton will get a bit strung out by a descent and a roundabout near the flame rouge.
The Tactics
It's going to be an interesting one, to see how each team will try and approach this stage. There's a few teams who will really like this finish, Orica-Greenedge, BMC and Movistar have riders for this finish, and will probably be called on to do most of the work to reel the breakaway back in, and if yesterday's stage was anything to go by they'll probably be assisted by Tinkoff-Saxo, who seem to be comfortable riding on the front to keep Contador out of trouble. I'm not sure it will work out for them in the long run, but it certainly kept Contador away from all the crashes yesterday, and today's stage has a number of tricky descents, so I think we'll see Tinkoff-Saxo employ a similar strategy.
Without that support, I would have said that it would very hard for Orica, BMC, et al, to control this stage, as there are a ton of riders who will fancy themselves in a breakaway situation over this sort of medium mountains. Indeed some teams have come here with the exclusive goal of winning in stages like this, so we could see a big group go clear and stay clear. The problem with groups like this is that they lack the organisation and commitment of a small group, unless one or two teams have the numbers committed to driving the break.
I personally think we are looking at the break being brought back, with the most likely event being a reduced bunch sprint, and the biggest challenge to that being a group of strong attackers going on the final climb, and trying to hold the gap into the finish. That sort of move can't be made by a contender for the GC, or it will be shut down very quickly by the teams of the other favourites, but the second or third tier climbers will be given some freedom, and if they are strong enough they could stand a chance. After the climb and descent Tinkoff-Saxo will have little interest in chasing, as they don't have stage win ambitions, at least on this sort of finish, so it will come down to whether Orica and BMC have any domestiques to survive over the last climb. Weening, Clarke and Gerrans will probably survive to support Matthews, whilst Gilbert will most likely be able to count on Dillier, Atapuma and Caruso. This should be enough to bring back even a relatively dangerous move, and they'll probably get some help from other teams if any other sprinters have managed to survive. Lobato for Movistar could make it, and his team is very strong in this terrain, and he is there, it will be almost guaranteed that the race comes together for a sprint, as they'll have 6-7 riders at his disposal.
It's going to be an interesting one, to see how each team will try and approach this stage. There's a few teams who will really like this finish, Orica-Greenedge, BMC and Movistar have riders for this finish, and will probably be called on to do most of the work to reel the breakaway back in, and if yesterday's stage was anything to go by they'll probably be assisted by Tinkoff-Saxo, who seem to be comfortable riding on the front to keep Contador out of trouble. I'm not sure it will work out for them in the long run, but it certainly kept Contador away from all the crashes yesterday, and today's stage has a number of tricky descents, so I think we'll see Tinkoff-Saxo employ a similar strategy.
Without that support, I would have said that it would very hard for Orica, BMC, et al, to control this stage, as there are a ton of riders who will fancy themselves in a breakaway situation over this sort of medium mountains. Indeed some teams have come here with the exclusive goal of winning in stages like this, so we could see a big group go clear and stay clear. The problem with groups like this is that they lack the organisation and commitment of a small group, unless one or two teams have the numbers committed to driving the break.
I personally think we are looking at the break being brought back, with the most likely event being a reduced bunch sprint, and the biggest challenge to that being a group of strong attackers going on the final climb, and trying to hold the gap into the finish. That sort of move can't be made by a contender for the GC, or it will be shut down very quickly by the teams of the other favourites, but the second or third tier climbers will be given some freedom, and if they are strong enough they could stand a chance. After the climb and descent Tinkoff-Saxo will have little interest in chasing, as they don't have stage win ambitions, at least on this sort of finish, so it will come down to whether Orica and BMC have any domestiques to survive over the last climb. Weening, Clarke and Gerrans will probably survive to support Matthews, whilst Gilbert will most likely be able to count on Dillier, Atapuma and Caruso. This should be enough to bring back even a relatively dangerous move, and they'll probably get some help from other teams if any other sprinters have managed to survive. Lobato for Movistar could make it, and his team is very strong in this terrain, and he is there, it will be almost guaranteed that the race comes together for a sprint, as they'll have 6-7 riders at his disposal.
The Contenders
I'll concentrate on the sprinters, as it's both the main scenario where I see the race being decided, but also because the sheer number of riders that can win from a break is absolutely staggering in this Giro.
First off, Michael Matthews is one of the faster sprinters in the race, but his real specialty lies in these tough mountains stages, where all the other fast men get dropped, and he can win the sprint relatively easily. He's taken a stage of the Tour del al Pais Vasco in this fashion, and was also second the next day in a similar day, and that was over tougher terrain, and was when he was in slightly lesser form. Add to that, he's got the pink jersey on, and will really keen to keep it, and the best way to do that is to win stages.
Arguably the biggest danger to Matthews will be the man who beat him on that second stage of Pais Vasco, Fabio Felline. Felline is probably a better climber than Matthews, less explosive for the shorter climbs in the classics, but on these long climbs he is actually very good, for example he was 5th on the queen stage of the Criterium International. He is also a strong time triallist, and is having his breakout season on the international scene. He will have next to no help from his team however, as they are by and large very poor climbers who are here to support Nizzolo in the sprints.
Phillipe Gilbert is an interesting prospect for this stage as he could win it from a break, a late attack or a sprint. I think he'll be a bit less active early in the race, and sit on for a sprint, where he should have a decent leadout from Caruso, who has some decent sprinting legs himself. He doesn't have the top end speed of Matthews, but you never know with Gilbert and he is one of the cannier operators around, and he will use his nous to squeeze every extra percent out for his sprint.
Sergeii Cherenetskii is an exciting young prospect who mixes very good climbing legs with a decent sprint. He's beaten the very impressive Julian Alaphillipe and Maciej Paterski in a sprint from a breakaway in Catalunya over a very similar stage, and whilst he would be more likely to win from a small group, he'll have the backing of his team if he makes the finish, and looks to have enough ability to do a good result.
Sylvain Chavanel is another half-climber, half-sprinter who will trying to hold on over the final climb, and have a chance to wind up his sprint for the finale. A very similar rider in characteristics to Gilbert, again he could win from a number of different situations, but I think he'll choose to sit on and wait. He has some decent form in sprints this year, taking 3rd in a Volta Algarve sprint behind Andre Greipel, but his recent form is of more concern and he hit the ground yesterday, so he might not even be in contention tomorrow. Nonetheless, it would be foolish to count the Frenchman out as he is a formidable opponent at his best.
Juan Jose Lobato has the best chance of the sprinters to make it over the final climb, and he is fast enough to beat Matthews in a sprint if it is easy enough for him on the climbs. He did crash yesterday, and took a while to get back on his bike, but his wounds were superficial, and he shouldn't be debilitated. His form again has a question mark over it, but he's too good to count out.
The Verdict
Michael Matthews has made this stage a big goal, and if Orica-Greenedge get a bit of help in the chase they should be able to bring the break back. In most cases, he will be by far the fastest, and should have one of the better leadouts with Weening, Clarke and Gerrans likely to survive to the finish.
I'll concentrate on the sprinters, as it's both the main scenario where I see the race being decided, but also because the sheer number of riders that can win from a break is absolutely staggering in this Giro.
First off, Michael Matthews is one of the faster sprinters in the race, but his real specialty lies in these tough mountains stages, where all the other fast men get dropped, and he can win the sprint relatively easily. He's taken a stage of the Tour del al Pais Vasco in this fashion, and was also second the next day in a similar day, and that was over tougher terrain, and was when he was in slightly lesser form. Add to that, he's got the pink jersey on, and will really keen to keep it, and the best way to do that is to win stages.
Arguably the biggest danger to Matthews will be the man who beat him on that second stage of Pais Vasco, Fabio Felline. Felline is probably a better climber than Matthews, less explosive for the shorter climbs in the classics, but on these long climbs he is actually very good, for example he was 5th on the queen stage of the Criterium International. He is also a strong time triallist, and is having his breakout season on the international scene. He will have next to no help from his team however, as they are by and large very poor climbers who are here to support Nizzolo in the sprints.
Phillipe Gilbert is an interesting prospect for this stage as he could win it from a break, a late attack or a sprint. I think he'll be a bit less active early in the race, and sit on for a sprint, where he should have a decent leadout from Caruso, who has some decent sprinting legs himself. He doesn't have the top end speed of Matthews, but you never know with Gilbert and he is one of the cannier operators around, and he will use his nous to squeeze every extra percent out for his sprint.
Sergeii Cherenetskii is an exciting young prospect who mixes very good climbing legs with a decent sprint. He's beaten the very impressive Julian Alaphillipe and Maciej Paterski in a sprint from a breakaway in Catalunya over a very similar stage, and whilst he would be more likely to win from a small group, he'll have the backing of his team if he makes the finish, and looks to have enough ability to do a good result.
Sylvain Chavanel is another half-climber, half-sprinter who will trying to hold on over the final climb, and have a chance to wind up his sprint for the finale. A very similar rider in characteristics to Gilbert, again he could win from a number of different situations, but I think he'll choose to sit on and wait. He has some decent form in sprints this year, taking 3rd in a Volta Algarve sprint behind Andre Greipel, but his recent form is of more concern and he hit the ground yesterday, so he might not even be in contention tomorrow. Nonetheless, it would be foolish to count the Frenchman out as he is a formidable opponent at his best.
Juan Jose Lobato has the best chance of the sprinters to make it over the final climb, and he is fast enough to beat Matthews in a sprint if it is easy enough for him on the climbs. He did crash yesterday, and took a while to get back on his bike, but his wounds were superficial, and he shouldn't be debilitated. His form again has a question mark over it, but he's too good to count out.
The Verdict
Michael Matthews has made this stage a big goal, and if Orica-Greenedge get a bit of help in the chase they should be able to bring the break back. In most cases, he will be by far the fastest, and should have one of the better leadouts with Weening, Clarke and Gerrans likely to survive to the finish.