The typical procession around the finishing city awaits Alberto Contador, and he has done them all. Paris, Madrid and Milan have all played host to the scene of the diminuitive Spaniard's successes, which have cast a dominant shadow on the world of cycling. The last stage is traditionally one for the sprinters, but with a technical finish, and some pretty tired riders, it could also be a day for the breakaway.
The Course
178 kms is a bit long for a normal finishing stage, so it won't just be a cycle in the park, and with the red jersey on the line, the intermediate sprints will be hotly contested if a break hasn't gone by this stage. The main interest will be in the finishing circuit however, it is 5.3 kms long and really technical, with lots of turns, and a few roundabouts. There are also tramlines, which will have to be negotiated twice vertically, which will almost definitely catch a few riders out. The home straight is actually quite easy, at 1 km in length and 8 m in width, but the penultimate km is really tricky with 3 bends and two roundabouts, and the peleton will be strung out through there.
178 kms is a bit long for a normal finishing stage, so it won't just be a cycle in the park, and with the red jersey on the line, the intermediate sprints will be hotly contested if a break hasn't gone by this stage. The main interest will be in the finishing circuit however, it is 5.3 kms long and really technical, with lots of turns, and a few roundabouts. There are also tramlines, which will have to be negotiated twice vertically, which will almost definitely catch a few riders out. The home straight is actually quite easy, at 1 km in length and 8 m in width, but the penultimate km is really tricky with 3 bends and two roundabouts, and the peleton will be strung out through there.
The Tactics
Normally I wouldn't bother with tactics on a final stage, but with the red points jersey still in play, Giaccomo Nizzolo's Trek will be very keen to keep hold of it, especially given that they haven't won anything else so far in this Giro. In an ideal world for them a big break will go up the road and take all the points on offer, so I doubt we'll see Trek participating in the pacemaking, and they may even try to get a man in the break. This will limit the firepower that the peleton has to reel in the escapees, especially with the number of sprinters that have abandoned the race already. Lampre-Merida will be required to do the bulk of the work, but they will most likely be pretty happy to do so, in the knowledge that Modolo has proven the fastest on these technical type of finishes so far in this Giro.
Normally I wouldn't bother with tactics on a final stage, but with the red points jersey still in play, Giaccomo Nizzolo's Trek will be very keen to keep hold of it, especially given that they haven't won anything else so far in this Giro. In an ideal world for them a big break will go up the road and take all the points on offer, so I doubt we'll see Trek participating in the pacemaking, and they may even try to get a man in the break. This will limit the firepower that the peleton has to reel in the escapees, especially with the number of sprinters that have abandoned the race already. Lampre-Merida will be required to do the bulk of the work, but they will most likely be pretty happy to do so, in the knowledge that Modolo has proven the fastest on these technical type of finishes so far in this Giro.
The Contenders
The final stage is a chance for all sorts of riders to try their hand in the break, so I won't name anyone in particular to win from there, as it really could be anyone.
Out of the sprinters, Sacha Modolo looks to be right at home on this finish, after having taken the two previous technical finishes this Giro, and looking pretty convincing in the process. He has a very strong leadout in Richeze and Ferrari, who have put him on the front in perfect position in each of his wins, and have also done well in the cases where Modolo was unable to finish it off, like in Stages 2 and 6.
Luka Mezgec actually won the corresponding stage last year in Trieste, where he looked the freshest of the sprinters in taking his only win for the race that year. He also had a better leadout at his disposal there, as the remnants of Kittel's men were there, and he was in much better form to boot. In addition, Mezgec prefers hillly to technical finishes, and though he is worth mentioning, as he has the speed, I think he'll be a non factor in this sprint.
Giacomo Nizzolo has ample motivation to win today, as hasn't actually won a stage yet this race, and he will be desperate to keep a hold on the red jersey for his team. He has looked one of the fastest this Giro, but he has really suffered from a lack of leadout. Whilst his team is entirely dedicated towards his performances, they haven't been able to put Nizzolo ahead of the other sprinters at any point this Giro, and instead he has always been starting his sprint from behind. I would say that he's faster than Modolo, one on one, but he hasn't been in the position to show that so far this race.
Elia Viviani and Moreno Hofland are still in the race, but haven't looked like taking a win since stage 2, where they were both well back, but benefitted from the lack of leadout trains and the uphill finish to time their runs from back in the pack perfectly, with Viviani having slightly more speed than the Dutchman in the end. Both have suffered from poor positioning since then, and it seems unlikely that they will recover from that particular problem here. Both are quick though, and could surprise.
Davide Appollonio has been there or thereabouts on most of the sprint days, and he should be up there again. He is better on the technical finishes, where he use his bike handling skills, and isn't as disadvantaged by his lack of leadout. He isn't the fastest rider around, but he knows what to do as a sprinter, and that should serve him well in this sort of finish.
The final stage is a chance for all sorts of riders to try their hand in the break, so I won't name anyone in particular to win from there, as it really could be anyone.
Out of the sprinters, Sacha Modolo looks to be right at home on this finish, after having taken the two previous technical finishes this Giro, and looking pretty convincing in the process. He has a very strong leadout in Richeze and Ferrari, who have put him on the front in perfect position in each of his wins, and have also done well in the cases where Modolo was unable to finish it off, like in Stages 2 and 6.
Luka Mezgec actually won the corresponding stage last year in Trieste, where he looked the freshest of the sprinters in taking his only win for the race that year. He also had a better leadout at his disposal there, as the remnants of Kittel's men were there, and he was in much better form to boot. In addition, Mezgec prefers hillly to technical finishes, and though he is worth mentioning, as he has the speed, I think he'll be a non factor in this sprint.
Giacomo Nizzolo has ample motivation to win today, as hasn't actually won a stage yet this race, and he will be desperate to keep a hold on the red jersey for his team. He has looked one of the fastest this Giro, but he has really suffered from a lack of leadout. Whilst his team is entirely dedicated towards his performances, they haven't been able to put Nizzolo ahead of the other sprinters at any point this Giro, and instead he has always been starting his sprint from behind. I would say that he's faster than Modolo, one on one, but he hasn't been in the position to show that so far this race.
Elia Viviani and Moreno Hofland are still in the race, but haven't looked like taking a win since stage 2, where they were both well back, but benefitted from the lack of leadout trains and the uphill finish to time their runs from back in the pack perfectly, with Viviani having slightly more speed than the Dutchman in the end. Both have suffered from poor positioning since then, and it seems unlikely that they will recover from that particular problem here. Both are quick though, and could surprise.
Davide Appollonio has been there or thereabouts on most of the sprint days, and he should be up there again. He is better on the technical finishes, where he use his bike handling skills, and isn't as disadvantaged by his lack of leadout. He isn't the fastest rider around, but he knows what to do as a sprinter, and that should serve him well in this sort of finish.