The first of the three final days in the mountains, it is a mostly flat day in the saddle, then a massive obstacle in the form of the Monte Ologno, and a sharp descent into the finish from there. Another decent day for the break, but Astana do look pretty keen on stage wins and could well keep the race together.
The Course
170.9 kms of mostly flat terrain, but it won't be a day for the sprinters, with the long and hard Monte Ologno (10.4 kms, 9.0%) likely to drop all but the top climbers. The climb itself is a fairly regular affair, and is less likely to be a tactical affair, and more a test of raw power. The tests aren't over at the top of the climb however, with a short descent leading to a further 3 kms of climbing and a plateau, before a long descent which ends 5 kms from the finish. This should allow dropped riders a chance to catch up, but it might be hard if a group of strong riders, or a talented descender gets free.
170.9 kms of mostly flat terrain, but it won't be a day for the sprinters, with the long and hard Monte Ologno (10.4 kms, 9.0%) likely to drop all but the top climbers. The climb itself is a fairly regular affair, and is less likely to be a tactical affair, and more a test of raw power. The tests aren't over at the top of the climb however, with a short descent leading to a further 3 kms of climbing and a plateau, before a long descent which ends 5 kms from the finish. This should allow dropped riders a chance to catch up, but it might be hard if a group of strong riders, or a talented descender gets free.
The Tactics
I've been quite confused with Astana's tactics to date, and have come to the conclusion that they have given up any hope for the overall win, and are just riding to protect their GC, and go for stage wins. Which is a noble enough goal, don't get me wrong, but it wouldn't be the way Contador would go about it, I always admire the way he went down swinging in the 2013 Tour De France, when he could have ridden sensibly and ended up 2nd, he decided instead to go on a series of long moves.
Here, Astana have just decided to go with setting a very high tempo, which is probably what Tinkoff-Saxo would be doing if they weren't as weak as Colombian climber doing a bench press. So I feel that they are playing into Contador's hands somewhat, but they still have the numbers with Aru and Landa in the finale. And even if Aru or Landa (but more likely Aru) is dropped, Landa/Aru can just sit on the wheels of those in front, quite rightly pointing out that he doesn't particularly want to put time into his teammate. This allowed Landa to save all his energy for his stage winning attack yesterday, but it's hard to maintain a two-pronged attack if both the prongs aren't working, and Aru looked pretty awful yesterday, and could fade.
This may also shape Astana's ambitions for this stage, with Aru looking in trouble, they won't want to compound the problems by setting a hard tempo early to bring back the break, and I doubt other teams are going to have enough interest in bringing the break back, when they'll probably have a better chance of winning from the break. The exception may be Cannondale-Garmin, who have a strong Ryder Hesjedal who is looking to move up on GC and take a stage, and they will probably have a man or two looking to work for the Canadian.
I've been quite confused with Astana's tactics to date, and have come to the conclusion that they have given up any hope for the overall win, and are just riding to protect their GC, and go for stage wins. Which is a noble enough goal, don't get me wrong, but it wouldn't be the way Contador would go about it, I always admire the way he went down swinging in the 2013 Tour De France, when he could have ridden sensibly and ended up 2nd, he decided instead to go on a series of long moves.
Here, Astana have just decided to go with setting a very high tempo, which is probably what Tinkoff-Saxo would be doing if they weren't as weak as Colombian climber doing a bench press. So I feel that they are playing into Contador's hands somewhat, but they still have the numbers with Aru and Landa in the finale. And even if Aru or Landa (but more likely Aru) is dropped, Landa/Aru can just sit on the wheels of those in front, quite rightly pointing out that he doesn't particularly want to put time into his teammate. This allowed Landa to save all his energy for his stage winning attack yesterday, but it's hard to maintain a two-pronged attack if both the prongs aren't working, and Aru looked pretty awful yesterday, and could fade.
This may also shape Astana's ambitions for this stage, with Aru looking in trouble, they won't want to compound the problems by setting a hard tempo early to bring back the break, and I doubt other teams are going to have enough interest in bringing the break back, when they'll probably have a better chance of winning from the break. The exception may be Cannondale-Garmin, who have a strong Ryder Hesjedal who is looking to move up on GC and take a stage, and they will probably have a man or two looking to work for the Canadian.