Well the GC landscape has changed significantly, and whilst Contador isn't assured of victory, it would take a brave man to bet against the best stage racer of his generation dropping a lead of more than 2 minutes in the last week of a Grand Tour. This stage is indicative of why this is especially true in this Giro, the mountains days are quite hard, but the final climbs are relatively shallow in gradient, and are unlikely to see huge gaps form.
The Course
The initial flat of the course gives way to a gradually rising road along the valley and then to the climb of La Fricca (11.3 kms, 9.1%). The descent is non-technical and gradual, and the riders will then race through some rolling terrain before the ascent of the Passo Daone (8.1 kms, 9.1%), which is the most challenging climb of the stage. The descent from there is fast and pretty tricky, with a number of hairpins, and it leads into the false flat which precedes the final climb of the day, the Madonna di Campiglio (15.5 kms, 5.9%). As you can see below, it has an easy section of a mere 2.8% gradient from 6 to 3 kms to go, before going back up to 6.7% for the final 3 kms.
The initial flat of the course gives way to a gradually rising road along the valley and then to the climb of La Fricca (11.3 kms, 9.1%). The descent is non-technical and gradual, and the riders will then race through some rolling terrain before the ascent of the Passo Daone (8.1 kms, 9.1%), which is the most challenging climb of the stage. The descent from there is fast and pretty tricky, with a number of hairpins, and it leads into the false flat which precedes the final climb of the day, the Madonna di Campiglio (15.5 kms, 5.9%). As you can see below, it has an easy section of a mere 2.8% gradient from 6 to 3 kms to go, before going back up to 6.7% for the final 3 kms.
The Tactics
With the GC out of range by conventional tactics, Astana will have to chance their hand if they want to win the Giro. Whether they actually want to do that, and risk the placings of Aru (2nd), Cataldo (6th) and Landa (7th) or they are content to try and maintain their impressive spread of performances is yet to be seen. Certainly they have strength in numbers, and they will be keen to isolate Contador and then go for a long range move which has the potential to take minutes rather than the seconds on offer from a conventional move closer to the finish.
The Passo Daone offers a spot for such a move today, with a pretty steep climb that contains some nasty sections, and a tricky, fast descent that favours a single rider over a chasing peleton. The preceding terrain isn't exactly super hard however, and it will be hard to drop all of Tinkoff-Saxo, especially Roman Kreuziger who is currently 4th overall.
For the other teams they are looking to move up on GC, or to go from the stage victory from the break. Taking your chance from the peleton against Contador and Aru is going to be very tough, so most of those with stage ambitions will be looking for the break. There will be a fierce battle to establish the break as most teams will want to get someone in, but at the same time won't want to have any threats to their GC rider's position go up the road. That generally means that unless there is some sort of parity in the break, it is hard for it to get a big advantage, and I can see that happening in today's stage. Tinkoff-Saxo don't really have much incentive to chase, and they may even send a domestique with the break as insurance in case Astana decide to try and rip the race apart.
With the GC out of range by conventional tactics, Astana will have to chance their hand if they want to win the Giro. Whether they actually want to do that, and risk the placings of Aru (2nd), Cataldo (6th) and Landa (7th) or they are content to try and maintain their impressive spread of performances is yet to be seen. Certainly they have strength in numbers, and they will be keen to isolate Contador and then go for a long range move which has the potential to take minutes rather than the seconds on offer from a conventional move closer to the finish.
The Passo Daone offers a spot for such a move today, with a pretty steep climb that contains some nasty sections, and a tricky, fast descent that favours a single rider over a chasing peleton. The preceding terrain isn't exactly super hard however, and it will be hard to drop all of Tinkoff-Saxo, especially Roman Kreuziger who is currently 4th overall.
For the other teams they are looking to move up on GC, or to go from the stage victory from the break. Taking your chance from the peleton against Contador and Aru is going to be very tough, so most of those with stage ambitions will be looking for the break. There will be a fierce battle to establish the break as most teams will want to get someone in, but at the same time won't want to have any threats to their GC rider's position go up the road. That generally means that unless there is some sort of parity in the break, it is hard for it to get a big advantage, and I can see that happening in today's stage. Tinkoff-Saxo don't really have much incentive to chase, and they may even send a domestique with the break as insurance in case Astana decide to try and rip the race apart.
The Contenders
I'm not convinced that we will see a big gap being given to the breakaway today, it's not a hard start to the stage, so it's quite easy for teams to make sure that no dangerous riders get away, and it looks like Astana are going to try and take a shot at Contador over the final two climbs, and that will involve some serious pace-setting which will quickly reel in the breakaways advantage.
Ihnur Zakarin, Davide Formolo and Ion Izagirre will be the guys that I nominate for a possible break victory. Zakarin is out of the GC picture, but I was really impressed with his Stage 11 win, as well as his Romandie win, and this final climb is very similar to the one on which he took the leader's jersey in Romandie. Formolo and Izagirre are both around the late teens in the GC, but both will look to target a stage where they are able to be part of a successful break and jump up a few minutes, which will put them around the top 10. Again, I don't think today is really the stage for that to happen, but that is the sort of tactic that they are looking to use, and they may try it today.
Of the GC guys, there aren't too many I can see taking the win today.
Alberto Contador will be the big favourite to take the stage win after his impressive time trial, but for me he performed as expected and he won't be particularly suited to the relatively easy finish. He will also probably be outnumbered by Astana, and it will be really tough to control the likely 3 or 4 guys that they will have at the finish by himself. Aru is the only guy that he really needs to watch in any case from a GC perspective, but that will harm his chances of winning the stage.
Fabio Aru did a better time trial than I expected, sure he lost 2.47 to Contador, but it could have been a lot worse, especially given the nature and the length of the course. Better time triallists than him did a lot worse, and he'll be very keen to get back to the terrain where he does best. This final climb suits him better than Contador, and with his superior sprint, he'll probably win if it comes down to the last few hundred metres. Of course, what Astana will be looking for is a longer range attack from Aru, but that is very unlikely to be successful unless catastrophe really strikes Tinkoff-Saxo.
One rider who won't set off panic at Tinkoff is Mikel Landa, who proved in the first week that he is climbing as well as anyone in the race. He also did a predictably bad time trial, but that extra time he has lost will mean that he's not going to be marked out of the race by Contador. He used a lull in the favourite's group on Stage 5 to launch an attack which saw him almost take a stage win, and he should have a good chance if he decides on a similar move today. You can put Cataldo into the same boat, but he doesn't appear to have the same climbing legs that Landa does at present.
Roman Kreuziger may be called in as teammate for Contador if it turns into an Astana blitzkrieg, but if the race is relatively controlled into the final climb, he will be given the chance to ride for himself. In particular, he may be given the role of playing the policeman on the moves of the GC riders that aren't Aru. For instance, say Landa attacks, Kreuziger follows and just sits on his wheel. Landa can't ask him to help, as he's threatening Contador's postion, but Landa won't stop his move, as Astana won't have many other choices in how to put pressure on Contador. Meanwhile Kreuziger takes the stage win, moves up on GC, and Contador is still well ahead in any case.
Ryder Hesjedal is often said to get better and better throughout a grand Tour, and certainly he has been moving up in GC on recent stages, and he'll get another chance to do so today. A canny rider, who is not afraid to attack in the right circumstances, he could well pick a good time to move, and get the jump on the rest of the climbers to take a win.
Richie Porte looked dispirited after Stage 13 and despondent after Stage 14. I can't see how he bounces back the next day to take a win. Tactically, it is perfectly set up for him, he's not going to be marked by anyone, and is still one of, if not the best climber in the race, but mentally he looks shot. I think he'll probably take the rest day to reevaluate his goals for the Giro, but I would be surprised to see him turn it around after a poor time trial on a course where he should have done really well.
I'm not convinced that we will see a big gap being given to the breakaway today, it's not a hard start to the stage, so it's quite easy for teams to make sure that no dangerous riders get away, and it looks like Astana are going to try and take a shot at Contador over the final two climbs, and that will involve some serious pace-setting which will quickly reel in the breakaways advantage.
Ihnur Zakarin, Davide Formolo and Ion Izagirre will be the guys that I nominate for a possible break victory. Zakarin is out of the GC picture, but I was really impressed with his Stage 11 win, as well as his Romandie win, and this final climb is very similar to the one on which he took the leader's jersey in Romandie. Formolo and Izagirre are both around the late teens in the GC, but both will look to target a stage where they are able to be part of a successful break and jump up a few minutes, which will put them around the top 10. Again, I don't think today is really the stage for that to happen, but that is the sort of tactic that they are looking to use, and they may try it today.
Of the GC guys, there aren't too many I can see taking the win today.
Alberto Contador will be the big favourite to take the stage win after his impressive time trial, but for me he performed as expected and he won't be particularly suited to the relatively easy finish. He will also probably be outnumbered by Astana, and it will be really tough to control the likely 3 or 4 guys that they will have at the finish by himself. Aru is the only guy that he really needs to watch in any case from a GC perspective, but that will harm his chances of winning the stage.
Fabio Aru did a better time trial than I expected, sure he lost 2.47 to Contador, but it could have been a lot worse, especially given the nature and the length of the course. Better time triallists than him did a lot worse, and he'll be very keen to get back to the terrain where he does best. This final climb suits him better than Contador, and with his superior sprint, he'll probably win if it comes down to the last few hundred metres. Of course, what Astana will be looking for is a longer range attack from Aru, but that is very unlikely to be successful unless catastrophe really strikes Tinkoff-Saxo.
One rider who won't set off panic at Tinkoff is Mikel Landa, who proved in the first week that he is climbing as well as anyone in the race. He also did a predictably bad time trial, but that extra time he has lost will mean that he's not going to be marked out of the race by Contador. He used a lull in the favourite's group on Stage 5 to launch an attack which saw him almost take a stage win, and he should have a good chance if he decides on a similar move today. You can put Cataldo into the same boat, but he doesn't appear to have the same climbing legs that Landa does at present.
Roman Kreuziger may be called in as teammate for Contador if it turns into an Astana blitzkrieg, but if the race is relatively controlled into the final climb, he will be given the chance to ride for himself. In particular, he may be given the role of playing the policeman on the moves of the GC riders that aren't Aru. For instance, say Landa attacks, Kreuziger follows and just sits on his wheel. Landa can't ask him to help, as he's threatening Contador's postion, but Landa won't stop his move, as Astana won't have many other choices in how to put pressure on Contador. Meanwhile Kreuziger takes the stage win, moves up on GC, and Contador is still well ahead in any case.
Ryder Hesjedal is often said to get better and better throughout a grand Tour, and certainly he has been moving up in GC on recent stages, and he'll get another chance to do so today. A canny rider, who is not afraid to attack in the right circumstances, he could well pick a good time to move, and get the jump on the rest of the climbers to take a win.
Richie Porte looked dispirited after Stage 13 and despondent after Stage 14. I can't see how he bounces back the next day to take a win. Tactically, it is perfectly set up for him, he's not going to be marked by anyone, and is still one of, if not the best climber in the race, but mentally he looks shot. I think he'll probably take the rest day to reevaluate his goals for the Giro, but I would be surprised to see him turn it around after a poor time trial on a course where he should have done really well.
The Verdict
I'm starting to believe the stuff I write, and today, I'm going on the Roman Kreuziger scenario outlined above. He's an old hand in the Grand Tours, but he doesn't win a lot, so it will be nice to see him take a win.
I'm starting to believe the stuff I write, and today, I'm going on the Roman Kreuziger scenario outlined above. He's an old hand in the Grand Tours, but he doesn't win a lot, so it will be nice to see him take a win.