Stage 12 was a rain-slicked affair, with a number of riders going down and quitting the Giro. Manuel Belletti, Stefan Kung and Simon Gerrans are all now out of the Giro, Kung in particular looks like he'll be out for a while with a fractured vertebrae. Today should be a good recovery opportunity for the riders, it couldn't be flatter.
The Course
It is a short flat stage at 147 km, with almost no altitude gain throughout the entire stage. The sprint points are in the middle of the stage, and are unlikely to be hotly contested. The finish is fairly technical, with three roundabouts in the last 2 kms, but no big turns.
The weather is again likely to be pretty poor, with rain and cold conditions expected and a fairly strong 20 km/h wind from the north-west, which will be a cross-tailwind most of the day, but the peleton will turn into a cross-wind with 54 kms to go, on relatively exposed coastal roads. The road turns and twists after that, and the final straight is going to be a crosswind from the rider's right, so expect the leadout to be on the left side of the road.
It is a short flat stage at 147 km, with almost no altitude gain throughout the entire stage. The sprint points are in the middle of the stage, and are unlikely to be hotly contested. The finish is fairly technical, with three roundabouts in the last 2 kms, but no big turns.
The weather is again likely to be pretty poor, with rain and cold conditions expected and a fairly strong 20 km/h wind from the north-west, which will be a cross-tailwind most of the day, but the peleton will turn into a cross-wind with 54 kms to go, on relatively exposed coastal roads. The road turns and twists after that, and the final straight is going to be a crosswind from the rider's right, so expect the leadout to be on the left side of the road.
The Tactics
The sprinters' teams are going to have to do all the work today, the stage is unlikely to be the scene of much action, unless the wind picks up a bit, and then there would be some action around the crosswinds section. That will be the main point of interest today, and it could be a nervous day, as with the slick roads, crashes are again likely.
I initially thought that it was going to be a tailwind finish, which had me excited for a possible late attack from a rider like Phillipe Gilbert or Adam Hansen, but the forecast changed, and a crosswind won't help a move like that. The finish is fairly technical, so it might still be possible, especially if the crosswinds reduce the size of the peleton in the run-in.
The sprinters' teams are going to have to do all the work today, the stage is unlikely to be the scene of much action, unless the wind picks up a bit, and then there would be some action around the crosswinds section. That will be the main point of interest today, and it could be a nervous day, as with the slick roads, crashes are again likely.
I initially thought that it was going to be a tailwind finish, which had me excited for a possible late attack from a rider like Phillipe Gilbert or Adam Hansen, but the forecast changed, and a crosswind won't help a move like that. The finish is fairly technical, so it might still be possible, especially if the crosswinds reduce the size of the peleton in the run-in.
The Contenders
Well the sprinters buggered things up properly last time, letting a relatively underpowered breakaway survive to the finish of an easily controlled stage, with Trek and Lampre particularly to blame. They won't want to repeat their mistake, and it would be a surprise to see the break being given a long leash today.
Andre Greipel is the fastest rider here, but he isn't the best suited to the more technical finishes. and will probably be some way down when he starts his sprint. In the past, he has overcome this problem by having a super strong leadout, but he hasn't brought his strongest team here, and can't rely entirely on them. He certainly can win this stage, but it is going to be the hardest of the sprint stages for him.
Sacha Modolo is a better bike handler, but for some reason he isn't as keen to protect his position against other sprinters. We saw that in Stage 2, where he was shoved off his own leadout by Nizzolo. He is clearly one of the fastest in this race, and he has one of the best leadouts, but he may not quite have the mongrel to win this one.
Giacomo Nizzolo is a curious sprinter in that he peaks for quite a short time each season. His early season returns were pretty awful, but he generally comes good for the Giro, and he's been good so far, sprinting well from tricky positions. His leadout won't be what he would have hoped for, and it hasn't been a factor in the finishes to date. On the other hand Nizzolo is better than most at overcoming that difficulty and he can position himself quite well and do even better in the sprint.
Elia Viviani is having to do his own thing in the sprints, and that is not helping his results. He got lucky on Stage 2, when he was 8 or 9th, but the front guys lead off far too early and faded on the uphill, and Hofland led him out perfectly. He won't do as well here, having to battle it out with the trains of the opposition from further back.
Nicola Ruffoni has a decent leadout at his disposal, but he may be better off doing his own thing in the finale, as he is renowned as a fairly reckless bike handler, who doesn't mind taking a risk or three. He should be well suited to this finish, and the flat, short stage will also suit him better than any of the other stages to date. He has been knocking on the door for a while now, very close to taking wins over big sprinters, and it shouldn't be too long before he takes his first big win.
Luka Mezgec is probably the only other big sprinter of note, and he has been well supported in this race, particularly with Giant-Shimano having very few other options, and he has been pretty good, taking a few 4ths, without challenging for the win. He will have to take a step up, or be on the end of a particularly good leadout to take the win here.
Most of the other sprinters of note have crashed out or withdrawn with illness, so we should get to see some leadout men like Roger Kluge, Heinrich Haussler and Eduard Grosu having a go in the finish. A man for the breakaway today might be FishysCP favourite Hugo Houle, who is a lot more at home on the flat than the mountains.
The Verdict
I'm going for a Niccola Ruffoni breakout win here, he's a younger sprinter with a big future, and he doesn't have to beat too many top sprinters to take what will be the biggest win of his career to date.
Well the sprinters buggered things up properly last time, letting a relatively underpowered breakaway survive to the finish of an easily controlled stage, with Trek and Lampre particularly to blame. They won't want to repeat their mistake, and it would be a surprise to see the break being given a long leash today.
Andre Greipel is the fastest rider here, but he isn't the best suited to the more technical finishes. and will probably be some way down when he starts his sprint. In the past, he has overcome this problem by having a super strong leadout, but he hasn't brought his strongest team here, and can't rely entirely on them. He certainly can win this stage, but it is going to be the hardest of the sprint stages for him.
Sacha Modolo is a better bike handler, but for some reason he isn't as keen to protect his position against other sprinters. We saw that in Stage 2, where he was shoved off his own leadout by Nizzolo. He is clearly one of the fastest in this race, and he has one of the best leadouts, but he may not quite have the mongrel to win this one.
Giacomo Nizzolo is a curious sprinter in that he peaks for quite a short time each season. His early season returns were pretty awful, but he generally comes good for the Giro, and he's been good so far, sprinting well from tricky positions. His leadout won't be what he would have hoped for, and it hasn't been a factor in the finishes to date. On the other hand Nizzolo is better than most at overcoming that difficulty and he can position himself quite well and do even better in the sprint.
Elia Viviani is having to do his own thing in the sprints, and that is not helping his results. He got lucky on Stage 2, when he was 8 or 9th, but the front guys lead off far too early and faded on the uphill, and Hofland led him out perfectly. He won't do as well here, having to battle it out with the trains of the opposition from further back.
Nicola Ruffoni has a decent leadout at his disposal, but he may be better off doing his own thing in the finale, as he is renowned as a fairly reckless bike handler, who doesn't mind taking a risk or three. He should be well suited to this finish, and the flat, short stage will also suit him better than any of the other stages to date. He has been knocking on the door for a while now, very close to taking wins over big sprinters, and it shouldn't be too long before he takes his first big win.
Luka Mezgec is probably the only other big sprinter of note, and he has been well supported in this race, particularly with Giant-Shimano having very few other options, and he has been pretty good, taking a few 4ths, without challenging for the win. He will have to take a step up, or be on the end of a particularly good leadout to take the win here.
Most of the other sprinters of note have crashed out or withdrawn with illness, so we should get to see some leadout men like Roger Kluge, Heinrich Haussler and Eduard Grosu having a go in the finish. A man for the breakaway today might be FishysCP favourite Hugo Houle, who is a lot more at home on the flat than the mountains.
The Verdict
I'm going for a Niccola Ruffoni breakout win here, he's a younger sprinter with a big future, and he doesn't have to beat too many top sprinters to take what will be the biggest win of his career to date.