An interesting Stage 12 is in prospect, with a mostly flat stage punctuated by some late climbs, and an uphill sprint finish. It's like a slightly easier version of Fleche Wallonne, and there aren't really any standout favourites for this sort of finish, so it will likely be quite a chaotic and exciting finale.
The Course
190 kms from the Stage 11 finish in Imola to the city of Vicenza, where the finish is located on the Monte Berico. With 60 kms remaining the first categorised climb, Castelnuovo (5.4 kms, 5%) of the day kicks off the action. A rolling descent goes from there, then it's flat into the Crosara (3.7 kms, 9.1%), which summits with 27.5 kms to go. There's a short uncategorised climb after, 2kms with slopes of 8%, which ends with 12.3 kms remaining. A sharp descent and some more flat before the final 1.2 kms gives the riders a really tough end to the stage with an average gradient of 7.1% and the final section of 11% on the finish line.
The weather will make this stage even more interesting, with the good weather of the first 10 stages well behind us. It will be 15 degrees Celsius with rain, and a strong north-easterly blowing, which could rip the race to pieces once it turns to a crosswind, which it will once the riders hit the hills. It then becomes a headwind as the riders head into Vicenza.
190 kms from the Stage 11 finish in Imola to the city of Vicenza, where the finish is located on the Monte Berico. With 60 kms remaining the first categorised climb, Castelnuovo (5.4 kms, 5%) of the day kicks off the action. A rolling descent goes from there, then it's flat into the Crosara (3.7 kms, 9.1%), which summits with 27.5 kms to go. There's a short uncategorised climb after, 2kms with slopes of 8%, which ends with 12.3 kms remaining. A sharp descent and some more flat before the final 1.2 kms gives the riders a really tough end to the stage with an average gradient of 7.1% and the final section of 11% on the finish line.
The weather will make this stage even more interesting, with the good weather of the first 10 stages well behind us. It will be 15 degrees Celsius with rain, and a strong north-easterly blowing, which could rip the race to pieces once it turns to a crosswind, which it will once the riders hit the hills. It then becomes a headwind as the riders head into Vicenza.
The Tactics
The break is unlikely to be a target of many teams, but without a standout contender for the stage win, there might be a collective shrugging of the shoulders amongst the main teams in the peleton, and they could get a fairly big gap. Also, the peleton has been known to stuff it up, as they did on Stage 10, so the break are by no means without a chance to take the win. However, I think that enough teams will be happy to contribute to bringing the break back, and then the pace will probably be pushed by Astana on the climbs, so I expect the escapees to be brought back.
Almost everything we have seen from Astana this Giro has indicated that they are really keen to take every single opportunity to put the pressure on, and I think this stage could be one of their best opportunities to make a relatively benign looking stage a decisive one in the GC battle. The Crosara is a really tough climb, where they can drop most of the other teams domestiques, and the crosswinds will only help them shred the peleton to bits, and will make it really tough for the dropped riders to catch back on. Aru has shown that he is the quickest of the GC guys in a sprint, and he will fancy his chances of taking a win in a reduced group. Alternatively, they could send Landa or Cataldo on a longer range attack, and force a decimated Tinkoff-Saxo to chase.
On the final climb to the finish, it will probably be a sit and sprint, with the final section being the hardest, that will probably be the best tactic, but I'm sure we'll see some of the other riders trying to get away on the earlier slopes to anticipate the quicker riders.
The break is unlikely to be a target of many teams, but without a standout contender for the stage win, there might be a collective shrugging of the shoulders amongst the main teams in the peleton, and they could get a fairly big gap. Also, the peleton has been known to stuff it up, as they did on Stage 10, so the break are by no means without a chance to take the win. However, I think that enough teams will be happy to contribute to bringing the break back, and then the pace will probably be pushed by Astana on the climbs, so I expect the escapees to be brought back.
Almost everything we have seen from Astana this Giro has indicated that they are really keen to take every single opportunity to put the pressure on, and I think this stage could be one of their best opportunities to make a relatively benign looking stage a decisive one in the GC battle. The Crosara is a really tough climb, where they can drop most of the other teams domestiques, and the crosswinds will only help them shred the peleton to bits, and will make it really tough for the dropped riders to catch back on. Aru has shown that he is the quickest of the GC guys in a sprint, and he will fancy his chances of taking a win in a reduced group. Alternatively, they could send Landa or Cataldo on a longer range attack, and force a decimated Tinkoff-Saxo to chase.
On the final climb to the finish, it will probably be a sit and sprint, with the final section being the hardest, that will probably be the best tactic, but I'm sure we'll see some of the other riders trying to get away on the earlier slopes to anticipate the quicker riders.
The Contenders
Diego Ulissi won the other uphill sprint of this Giro, and he should actually be much better suited here by the harder gradients, which will take it out of the comfort zone of many of the climby sprinters. That stage wasn't so much about explosiveness as attrition however, with a very high tempo set on the run-in, and very few having much in the way of legs to do a good sprint at the end. Also that win was really a bit of a surprise, as he has looked pretty average after his return from suspension, and it may have been a flash in the pan. However, he has the runs on the board, and if he can pull off a similar performance he will be right up there.
Juan Jose Lobato has established himself as the premier uphill sprinter of the pro peleton, defeating John Degenkolb twice in the Ruta del Sol, and winning the stage into Stirling of the Tour Down Under. I thought he was going to be in line for a great Giro, with a good shot at winning the points jersey, but he crashed hard on the second stage, and that took him off his top form. Yesterday he looked good though, finishing in the main group, and having enough in the way of legs to do a decent sprint. He will be right up there if the run-in isn't too selective, and Movistar will be very keen to give him every chance to win.
Phillipe Gilbert is in some ominous form, and is clearly champing at the bit, in Stage 11 he did a rather pointless late attack with Maciej Paterski. He probably had some really good legs and wanted to use them, but the race was way up the road. He excels on this sort of finish, not because he is the best climber, but because he can release all of his energy onto that last sprint and empty himself out. He will be really keen to make up for his abortive classics season, and will be really hard to beat up this climb.
Another rider that can go into the red and stay there is Michael Matthews, who showed Gilbert in Amstel Gold that he can match him pedal stroke for stroke. This climb is harder, but the principle is the same, and Matthews has been climbing very well in this Giro and he shouldn't find it too hard for him. He will be the fastest with Lobato that reaches the finish, but the question will be whether the likes of Astana decide to make this a really tough day, which probably will rule him out of the stage.
Grega Bole is the last of the sprinter types that could play a part in the finish. He has taken his climbing to another level this Giro, finishing in the main groups on Stage 3 and 11, which by rights should have been too hard for the Slovenian. He will have Maciej Paterski for company, who will be the leadout guy, or will take over the mantle of going for the win if it is too hard for Bole.
Fabio Felline was in the break on Stage 11, but was actually dropped on the descent, and will be kicking himself that he allowed a potential victory to slip away from him (although I doubt anyone would have beaten the super impressive Zakarin). He is again a very impressive climber and quick sprinter, but he hasn't got much history in uphill sprints, other than a few times that he has finished behind Michael Matthews. I don't think he's perfectly suited to this sort of effort, but he's taken a step up in all other aspects of his cycling, and he wouldn't surprise if he won here.
Fabio Aru could decide that this stage is one for him, and could get his Astana team to make this stage devilishly hard if he wants. They will have to drop a hell of a lot of riders in order for Aru to be the fastest finisher present, but he has shown that he is the quickest of the GC contenders, and the stage will likely be made naturally attritional with the weather conditions and the tough climbing on the run-into the finish.
The Verdict
I think it will be a really tough stage, but I find it impossible to go past Phillipe Gilbert in this stage. He had some bad luck dropping his chain in the last uphill sprint, and he has looked very strong on the other stages. He just needs things to click, and to get a good shot at the final climb and he can blast clear of the field to win this one.
Diego Ulissi won the other uphill sprint of this Giro, and he should actually be much better suited here by the harder gradients, which will take it out of the comfort zone of many of the climby sprinters. That stage wasn't so much about explosiveness as attrition however, with a very high tempo set on the run-in, and very few having much in the way of legs to do a good sprint at the end. Also that win was really a bit of a surprise, as he has looked pretty average after his return from suspension, and it may have been a flash in the pan. However, he has the runs on the board, and if he can pull off a similar performance he will be right up there.
Juan Jose Lobato has established himself as the premier uphill sprinter of the pro peleton, defeating John Degenkolb twice in the Ruta del Sol, and winning the stage into Stirling of the Tour Down Under. I thought he was going to be in line for a great Giro, with a good shot at winning the points jersey, but he crashed hard on the second stage, and that took him off his top form. Yesterday he looked good though, finishing in the main group, and having enough in the way of legs to do a decent sprint. He will be right up there if the run-in isn't too selective, and Movistar will be very keen to give him every chance to win.
Phillipe Gilbert is in some ominous form, and is clearly champing at the bit, in Stage 11 he did a rather pointless late attack with Maciej Paterski. He probably had some really good legs and wanted to use them, but the race was way up the road. He excels on this sort of finish, not because he is the best climber, but because he can release all of his energy onto that last sprint and empty himself out. He will be really keen to make up for his abortive classics season, and will be really hard to beat up this climb.
Another rider that can go into the red and stay there is Michael Matthews, who showed Gilbert in Amstel Gold that he can match him pedal stroke for stroke. This climb is harder, but the principle is the same, and Matthews has been climbing very well in this Giro and he shouldn't find it too hard for him. He will be the fastest with Lobato that reaches the finish, but the question will be whether the likes of Astana decide to make this a really tough day, which probably will rule him out of the stage.
Grega Bole is the last of the sprinter types that could play a part in the finish. He has taken his climbing to another level this Giro, finishing in the main groups on Stage 3 and 11, which by rights should have been too hard for the Slovenian. He will have Maciej Paterski for company, who will be the leadout guy, or will take over the mantle of going for the win if it is too hard for Bole.
Fabio Felline was in the break on Stage 11, but was actually dropped on the descent, and will be kicking himself that he allowed a potential victory to slip away from him (although I doubt anyone would have beaten the super impressive Zakarin). He is again a very impressive climber and quick sprinter, but he hasn't got much history in uphill sprints, other than a few times that he has finished behind Michael Matthews. I don't think he's perfectly suited to this sort of effort, but he's taken a step up in all other aspects of his cycling, and he wouldn't surprise if he won here.
Fabio Aru could decide that this stage is one for him, and could get his Astana team to make this stage devilishly hard if he wants. They will have to drop a hell of a lot of riders in order for Aru to be the fastest finisher present, but he has shown that he is the quickest of the GC contenders, and the stage will likely be made naturally attritional with the weather conditions and the tough climbing on the run-into the finish.
The Verdict
I think it will be a really tough stage, but I find it impossible to go past Phillipe Gilbert in this stage. He had some bad luck dropping his chain in the last uphill sprint, and he has looked very strong on the other stages. He just needs things to click, and to get a good shot at the final climb and he can blast clear of the field to win this one.