A day of stuff-ups in stage 10 of the Giro, Richie Porte lost 47 seconds with a puncture, then a further 2 minutes when Simon Clarke's assistance in giving Porte a wheel was revealed. The peleton stuffed up by underestimating the breakaway and the tailwind, particularly Trek and Lampre, who I didn't see commit much at all to the front. Niccola Boem certainly didn't stuff up, and once again proved Bardiani's strength compared to their Pro-Continental Italian opposition. Today's stage is really quite tough, and could end up in a number of different outcomes.
The Course
It is a really tough opening half to the stage, and then it becomes a circuit race with some tricky climbing and a race course to finish on. It is only 153 kms long, but it is straight into the action, with only 17 kms of false flat into the first climb, the Passo del Trebbio (6.3 kms, 6.3%). It is then a descent into another climb for the next 60 kms, tackling the Monte Cassale (4.2 kms, 7%), La Valetta (2.7 kms, 9.8%), Monte Albano (4.6 kms, 6.5%) and Valicio del Prugno (5.6 kms, 6.2%). This works out to be a pretty gruelling start to the stage, but thankfully the course is a lot easier from then on, as the Imola racetrack forms the basis for the next part of the course. The circuit is 15.6 kms and includes the climb of the Tre Monti (4.4 kms, 4.1%). It is a two stage climb, with some quite tough sections, and won't be easy for the fast men that have survived to this point.
It is a really tough opening half to the stage, and then it becomes a circuit race with some tricky climbing and a race course to finish on. It is only 153 kms long, but it is straight into the action, with only 17 kms of false flat into the first climb, the Passo del Trebbio (6.3 kms, 6.3%). It is then a descent into another climb for the next 60 kms, tackling the Monte Cassale (4.2 kms, 7%), La Valetta (2.7 kms, 9.8%), Monte Albano (4.6 kms, 6.5%) and Valicio del Prugno (5.6 kms, 6.2%). This works out to be a pretty gruelling start to the stage, but thankfully the course is a lot easier from then on, as the Imola racetrack forms the basis for the next part of the course. The circuit is 15.6 kms and includes the climb of the Tre Monti (4.4 kms, 4.1%). It is a two stage climb, with some quite tough sections, and won't be easy for the fast men that have survived to this point.
The Tactics
It will be a good day to get into the break, as the terrain will be really tricky to control for any one team, and it's pretty unlikely that the GC teams are unlikely to want to bring the break back, and it may even be that Tinkoff are happy to give away the maglia rosa to someone relatively safe. This will mean that the break should be relatively well populated by good climbers. It will be pretty hard to bring the break back for the teams of the likely candidates, BMC, OGE and Trek. The problem for these teams is that Stage 12 is a good stage for these riders as well, so they are unlikely to want to waste all of their energy futilely chasing a strong break on this tough stage. Add to that, Trek are unlikely to be able to do anything, and all have pretty decent chances of winning from the break, and may just opt to go for a win from the eventuating breakaway.
Countering this, Astana have been pretty keen to lay down a lot of energy in making these medium mountain stages really quite difficult, and this could again happen today.
For the break, it will too hard for a solo attack to go from the mountains, and so the winner will be decided on the final circuit, and the most likely outcome is a win from a small group sprint.
It will be a good day to get into the break, as the terrain will be really tricky to control for any one team, and it's pretty unlikely that the GC teams are unlikely to want to bring the break back, and it may even be that Tinkoff are happy to give away the maglia rosa to someone relatively safe. This will mean that the break should be relatively well populated by good climbers. It will be pretty hard to bring the break back for the teams of the likely candidates, BMC, OGE and Trek. The problem for these teams is that Stage 12 is a good stage for these riders as well, so they are unlikely to want to waste all of their energy futilely chasing a strong break on this tough stage. Add to that, Trek are unlikely to be able to do anything, and all have pretty decent chances of winning from the break, and may just opt to go for a win from the eventuating breakaway.
Countering this, Astana have been pretty keen to lay down a lot of energy in making these medium mountain stages really quite difficult, and this could again happen today.
For the break, it will too hard for a solo attack to go from the mountains, and so the winner will be decided on the final circuit, and the most likely outcome is a win from a small group sprint.
The Contenders
Fabio Felline is a very good climber and has a fast sprint. He will be the favourite in pretty much any break attempt he makes, but he has trouble making the breakaway to date in this Giro, and he will be a marked man. He will also be outnumbered, due to the fact his team are made up of pretty awful climbers.
OGE have Simon Gerrans, Michael Matthews and Simon Clarke who all have the right characteristics to win this sort of stage, good climbing ability combined with a fast finish. Gerrans is probably the strongest on the climbs, as he has the ability to cope with a huge amount of climbing and still be pretty fresh for the sprint at the end. In addition he is very tactically astute, is coming into form and probably represents OGE's best chance of victory.
Phillipe Gilbert is the other obvious candidate for the stage, and seems to be in some really good form, but has been somewhat unlucky to date in this Giro. He was part of a break that was caught on Stage 3, before sprinting to 3rd, then dropped his chain on stage 7 just before the final sprint. Again, he's a very good climber and a fast finisher, but he will probably be beaten by Felline, Matthews and Gerrans in this sort of finish.
Diego Ullisi has already won a stage this Giro, somewhat of a surprise with his form coming in, so he has clearly improved a fair bit and he should be really well suited to this stage. He is a really top climber, who has very similar characteristics to Alejandro Valverde, who would be a top candidate for this sort of stage.
Giovanni Visconti may try and take the maglia rosa here, after losing a bit of time in a peleton gap yesterday. Again, he's a rider that is well suited to the terrain, but he may not be allowed to get clear, but if he does, it will be a good chance for him to end up in pink. He's not the absolute fastest in a sprint, but he is climbing superbly at the moment, and he may ride away on the climb.
The Verdict
Fabio Felline looks in really good form, and will be the fastest rider in any breakaway that goes away. He is also a superb climber, and he'll be really motivated to get a win in this Giro.
Fabio Felline is a very good climber and has a fast sprint. He will be the favourite in pretty much any break attempt he makes, but he has trouble making the breakaway to date in this Giro, and he will be a marked man. He will also be outnumbered, due to the fact his team are made up of pretty awful climbers.
OGE have Simon Gerrans, Michael Matthews and Simon Clarke who all have the right characteristics to win this sort of stage, good climbing ability combined with a fast finish. Gerrans is probably the strongest on the climbs, as he has the ability to cope with a huge amount of climbing and still be pretty fresh for the sprint at the end. In addition he is very tactically astute, is coming into form and probably represents OGE's best chance of victory.
Phillipe Gilbert is the other obvious candidate for the stage, and seems to be in some really good form, but has been somewhat unlucky to date in this Giro. He was part of a break that was caught on Stage 3, before sprinting to 3rd, then dropped his chain on stage 7 just before the final sprint. Again, he's a very good climber and a fast finisher, but he will probably be beaten by Felline, Matthews and Gerrans in this sort of finish.
Diego Ullisi has already won a stage this Giro, somewhat of a surprise with his form coming in, so he has clearly improved a fair bit and he should be really well suited to this stage. He is a really top climber, who has very similar characteristics to Alejandro Valverde, who would be a top candidate for this sort of stage.
Giovanni Visconti may try and take the maglia rosa here, after losing a bit of time in a peleton gap yesterday. Again, he's a rider that is well suited to the terrain, but he may not be allowed to get clear, but if he does, it will be a good chance for him to end up in pink. He's not the absolute fastest in a sprint, but he is climbing superbly at the moment, and he may ride away on the climb.
The Verdict
Fabio Felline looks in really good form, and will be the fastest rider in any breakaway that goes away. He is also a superb climber, and he'll be really motivated to get a win in this Giro.