In case you are wondering what all these races with 'Fleche' are about, 'Fleche' means arrow in French, and generally refers to the straight nature of the course. Like a lot of races, the Fleche Wallone is a 'Fleche' in name only and now comprises of a few circuits of varying length. There's still the opportunity for a rider to hit a bullseye here, and even a longshot could get up.
The Course
Fleche Wallone has nowhere near the amount of climbing that the Amstel Gold or Liege-Bastogne-Liege has, but it will always be won by one of the major climbers that wins this race due to the famous finish on the Mur De Huy (1.3 kms, 9.6%). The course up until then is easy enough for the teams of the favourites to control, and the race almost always comes down to a battle up the famous Mur. The climb is tackled three times by the riders, with 88 kms to go and 29 kms to go, before the final ascent. The rest of the climbs are more classic Ardennes fare, 4-6% climbs for 1.0-2.5 kms, and none will likely be too decisive in the race outcome.
This year, the organisers have decided to shake up the format a bit, by adding in the brand-new Cote de Cherave (1.3 kms, 8.1%), which summits a bare 5.5 kms from the finish. A sharp descent leads to a flat 3 km run-in to the Mur de Huy, which is famous for its inconsistent gradients. It starts out slowly, and often there are leadouts for the favourites in the early parts. With 600 m to go the climb starts to really ramp up and the racing becomes a test of strength, with the gradients touching 25% at points in what is generally recognised as one of the most explosive climbs on the cycling calendar. This is reflected in the gaps as the riders dribble in ones and twos over the final part of the climb, and for the last 75 m have a false flat to the finish, but there is rarely much of a sprint, as the riders generally have used up all their energy before this.
The length of the course is a measly 205.5 kms, short for a classic, and the weather will be a pleasant 15 degrees Celsius, with a moderate wind from the northeast. The wind will be a cross tailwind turning into a crosswind for the first part of the race, and after the riders reach the circuits, they will obviously face the wind from all different directions. It will be a tailwind for most of the Cote de Cherave, turning to a cross headwind for the descent and run-in to the Mur de Huy. The climb itself shifts direction numerous times and is mostly sheltered by masses of fans, but for what it is worth it will mostly be a combination of headwind and cross headwind for the race finale.
Fleche Wallone has nowhere near the amount of climbing that the Amstel Gold or Liege-Bastogne-Liege has, but it will always be won by one of the major climbers that wins this race due to the famous finish on the Mur De Huy (1.3 kms, 9.6%). The course up until then is easy enough for the teams of the favourites to control, and the race almost always comes down to a battle up the famous Mur. The climb is tackled three times by the riders, with 88 kms to go and 29 kms to go, before the final ascent. The rest of the climbs are more classic Ardennes fare, 4-6% climbs for 1.0-2.5 kms, and none will likely be too decisive in the race outcome.
This year, the organisers have decided to shake up the format a bit, by adding in the brand-new Cote de Cherave (1.3 kms, 8.1%), which summits a bare 5.5 kms from the finish. A sharp descent leads to a flat 3 km run-in to the Mur de Huy, which is famous for its inconsistent gradients. It starts out slowly, and often there are leadouts for the favourites in the early parts. With 600 m to go the climb starts to really ramp up and the racing becomes a test of strength, with the gradients touching 25% at points in what is generally recognised as one of the most explosive climbs on the cycling calendar. This is reflected in the gaps as the riders dribble in ones and twos over the final part of the climb, and for the last 75 m have a false flat to the finish, but there is rarely much of a sprint, as the riders generally have used up all their energy before this.
The length of the course is a measly 205.5 kms, short for a classic, and the weather will be a pleasant 15 degrees Celsius, with a moderate wind from the northeast. The wind will be a cross tailwind turning into a crosswind for the first part of the race, and after the riders reach the circuits, they will obviously face the wind from all different directions. It will be a tailwind for most of the Cote de Cherave, turning to a cross headwind for the descent and run-in to the Mur de Huy. The climb itself shifts direction numerous times and is mostly sheltered by masses of fans, but for what it is worth it will mostly be a combination of headwind and cross headwind for the race finale.
The Tactics
Fleche Wallone has often been criticised as being all about the Mur de Huy, with next to no meaningful action beforehand. Of course the drawcard of the race is the storied climb, so the organisers don't want to stray too far from this winning formula, but this year the addition of the Cote de Cherave looks to have the potential to really blow the race apart before the main contenders reach the Mur de Huy. It will be tackled with a moderate tailwind, aiding attackers at least initially to get a gap, though they will have to battle a headwind of some sort from the descent onwards. For a lot of riders this will be their only chance of winning, as realistically there are only a few riders that can win up the Mur de Huy if they all start together. Teams with multiple cards to play, or little other chance of winning will look to be part of the escape here, and they will definitely be let go, as the big favourites will want to save all their energy for the final climb.
Depending on the size and composition of the group, they could prosper or flounder, but they won't need too much cooperation, as it is only 3 kms of flat roads leading into the Mur de Huy, and I would expect a group of escapees to make it onto the climb before the peleton does, especially with the thinning out of the pack that the Cote de Cherave will cause, likely dropping a lot of domestiques. They will need a pretty big gap however, and I wouldn't hold much hope for a winner from that group unless their advantage is above 30 seconds. Rather than chasing hard to control the group on the Cote de Cherave, I would expect the likes of Movistar and Katusha to police the breakaway, especially if particularly dangerous riders try to join the move. This will probably disrupt the cohesion of the group and make it easier to bring back, or if it stays away, they have a relatively good chance of winning with their rider getting an armchair ride to the finish.
Fleche Wallone has often been criticised as being all about the Mur de Huy, with next to no meaningful action beforehand. Of course the drawcard of the race is the storied climb, so the organisers don't want to stray too far from this winning formula, but this year the addition of the Cote de Cherave looks to have the potential to really blow the race apart before the main contenders reach the Mur de Huy. It will be tackled with a moderate tailwind, aiding attackers at least initially to get a gap, though they will have to battle a headwind of some sort from the descent onwards. For a lot of riders this will be their only chance of winning, as realistically there are only a few riders that can win up the Mur de Huy if they all start together. Teams with multiple cards to play, or little other chance of winning will look to be part of the escape here, and they will definitely be let go, as the big favourites will want to save all their energy for the final climb.
Depending on the size and composition of the group, they could prosper or flounder, but they won't need too much cooperation, as it is only 3 kms of flat roads leading into the Mur de Huy, and I would expect a group of escapees to make it onto the climb before the peleton does, especially with the thinning out of the pack that the Cote de Cherave will cause, likely dropping a lot of domestiques. They will need a pretty big gap however, and I wouldn't hold much hope for a winner from that group unless their advantage is above 30 seconds. Rather than chasing hard to control the group on the Cote de Cherave, I would expect the likes of Movistar and Katusha to police the breakaway, especially if particularly dangerous riders try to join the move. This will probably disrupt the cohesion of the group and make it easier to bring back, or if it stays away, they have a relatively good chance of winning with their rider getting an armchair ride to the finish.
The Contenders
It's going to be one of the best climbers that takes the win atop the Mur de Huy, but the Mur is more than just brute strength, especially on a windy day like the riders will face, Timing the crucial attack is going to be very important, as is using the roads to your advantage. I think this race will favour the old heads, who know this climb very well, and they will bide their time and wait to the final moment to launch the decisive attack.
Joaquim Rodriguez is the perennial contender in this race, but unfortunately crashed out last year, after also being involved in a crash in Amstel Gold. He'll be hoping for better luck this year, and that he's in better form than he appeared to be in Amstel. His season wasn't really one to write home about until the recent Vuelta a Pais Vasco, where he was very impressive, taking two stages and riding the best time trial of his life to take the overall victory. He won here in 2012, and he's canny enough to be able to use the conditions to his advantage here. He also has a strong team, with former Fleche-winner Daniel Moreno and future classics-winner Giampaolo Caruso.
His biggest rival will be Alejandro Valverde, the two-time winner and defending champion. Fresh off a very good 2nd in the Amstel Gold, where he was 3rd best up the Cauberg, after being boxed in early, and then looked very nippy in the sprint, he will be confident of adding to his wins here. His early season form disappointed many, as it wasn't as good as his remarkable 2014, where he swept all before him, but he may be staggering his preparation a bit more effectively this season, as he showed in the Volta a Catalunya, where only a crash prevented him winning the overall, despite him taking 3 stage wins. One of the most experienced riders on the start line, the only disadvantage I can see for him is that he may be put onto the back foot chasing moves in the later stages, which may swing the advantage to his rivals.
Daniel Martin has had a quiet season to date, but now is where he really starts to shine, he has gone well up the Mur de Huy a number of times in the past, he normally leaves his surge until very late, and I think that strategy may pay off this year even more than previous editions. With the wind battering the riders for most of the way up the climb, Martin will be protected for most of the climb before surging free in the finale, and limiting his exposure for the shortest time possible whilst also giving himself a chance at the win. There isn't too much form to analyse for Martin, he was solid in Vuelta a Pais Vasco, but his real target is this week in the Ardennes, and he always gets himself in top form, so it would be silly not to expect him to be a key protagonist here.
Sergio Henao actually already has a 2nd place in this race, despite his young age, and looks capable of going one better here. He looked very strong recently on the steep climbs in Vuelta a Pais Vasco, the strongest on the climbs in fact, holding off Rodriguez on the steep gradients of Alto del Aia, which some described as being worse than the Mur de Huy. As I said above, it will be a day for old heads, and I think Henao may have to use this race as a learning experience.
Of course one rider did finish in front of both Rodriguez and Henao, after escaping solo on the penultimate climb of the day, which like in the Fleche Wallone, immediately preceded the final ascent. That was Simon Yates, who looks like he will be a major contender in these sort of races in the future, and maybe even in the present. Certainly the Fleche Wallone is one of the easier classics, with its short distance and relatively straight-forward tactics, but the Mur de Huy often finds out inexperienced riders, and even experienced ones as many underestimate how hard it is. In windy conditions with a headwind, I expect that it will be a bit to hard for Yates.
Bauke Mollema is a rider that has gone well in the last few years here, finishing 4th, 9th and 7th, proving that he can go with the favourites on this finish. That experience will stand him in good stead here, and he is in pretty good form as well, finishing 2nd overall in Tirreno and then finishing 2nd on the queen stage in Pais Vasco before withdrawing from the race with illness. How well he has recovered from that will be important, and he didn't look great at Amstel, coming in 55th, but he has the tools to do well here if he feels good enough.
Michael Albasini is somewhat of a specialist in this race, his name isn't one that immediately springs to mind when you are thinking about really steep finishes, but if you look at his results in this race, he is rarely far from the win, finishing 7th, 21st, 2nd, 11th, 10th, 9th and 7th in the last seven years. That sort of record has to be respected, even though Albasini hasn't shown any sort of form so far this season. He normally comes into form around now and in the Tour of Romandie in his native Switzerland, so he shouldn't be far off again.
Yes, shock horror I know, this far into the list of contenders and I still haven't found space for Michal Kwiatkowski. The world champion played a very smart race in Amstel Gold to take the win, saving his energy on the Cauberg, when he was unable to make the split, and then perfecting the launch of his sprint and taking memorable win. He won't have the benefit of being able to save energy here however, and I think that he'll be a step or two off the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez. He also won't be given any freedom, as should be expected with the rainbow jersey on his back, and I wouldn't expect any favours done for him like Giampaolo Caruso did by towing him up to the lead group in Amstel.
Speaking of, I firmly believe that we will see the Italian from Katusha take a classics win this year, and whilst I wouldn't have thought that the Fleche Wallonne suits him the best, neither would I have picked him to be the 5th best up the Cauberg in Amstel, and the steeper gradients will suit him better. He may have team orders to attack on the penultimate climb, which will probably hurt his chances for the victory, but then again it could be a blessing if he finds a few willing participants in the break. I will unabashedly say that I hope he wins, he's spent a long time as a domestique and now that he's at the peak of his career he has the ability to take a big win and he should get the opportunity.
Roman Kreuziger is another who could try a move from afar, and try and recreate the magic that saw him take a solo win in the 2013 Amstel. He normally goes fairly well on the Mur de Huy when he goes with the favourites, finishing 8th last year and 17th the year before, but his best chance at actually taking the win will be from range, as he doesn't really have the punch to go with the best here.
A number of Tour de France contenders are here at the start line in race they normally wouldn't contest, and that is because the Mur de Huy will feature in the opening week on the TDF and the big names will want to see firsthand how the racing on it goes. Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Tejay Van Garderen and Vincenzo Nibali are all here to take a look at it up close, and to test their legs. Nibali is the closest to a classics contender, but he's not in top form yet, and would struggle to take on the best riders here, even if he was at his best. As for the others, they are really not one-day racers, but the Fleche Wallonne is one of the easier classics, and, presuming that they can keep themselves relatively fresh, they could be in contention for the final climb up the Mur de Huy. Froome would be the best suited by this climb you would think, he isn't as explosive as some, but we've seen him show some frantic accelerations on the steeper mountains in the Grand Tours.
It's going to be one of the best climbers that takes the win atop the Mur de Huy, but the Mur is more than just brute strength, especially on a windy day like the riders will face, Timing the crucial attack is going to be very important, as is using the roads to your advantage. I think this race will favour the old heads, who know this climb very well, and they will bide their time and wait to the final moment to launch the decisive attack.
Joaquim Rodriguez is the perennial contender in this race, but unfortunately crashed out last year, after also being involved in a crash in Amstel Gold. He'll be hoping for better luck this year, and that he's in better form than he appeared to be in Amstel. His season wasn't really one to write home about until the recent Vuelta a Pais Vasco, where he was very impressive, taking two stages and riding the best time trial of his life to take the overall victory. He won here in 2012, and he's canny enough to be able to use the conditions to his advantage here. He also has a strong team, with former Fleche-winner Daniel Moreno and future classics-winner Giampaolo Caruso.
His biggest rival will be Alejandro Valverde, the two-time winner and defending champion. Fresh off a very good 2nd in the Amstel Gold, where he was 3rd best up the Cauberg, after being boxed in early, and then looked very nippy in the sprint, he will be confident of adding to his wins here. His early season form disappointed many, as it wasn't as good as his remarkable 2014, where he swept all before him, but he may be staggering his preparation a bit more effectively this season, as he showed in the Volta a Catalunya, where only a crash prevented him winning the overall, despite him taking 3 stage wins. One of the most experienced riders on the start line, the only disadvantage I can see for him is that he may be put onto the back foot chasing moves in the later stages, which may swing the advantage to his rivals.
Daniel Martin has had a quiet season to date, but now is where he really starts to shine, he has gone well up the Mur de Huy a number of times in the past, he normally leaves his surge until very late, and I think that strategy may pay off this year even more than previous editions. With the wind battering the riders for most of the way up the climb, Martin will be protected for most of the climb before surging free in the finale, and limiting his exposure for the shortest time possible whilst also giving himself a chance at the win. There isn't too much form to analyse for Martin, he was solid in Vuelta a Pais Vasco, but his real target is this week in the Ardennes, and he always gets himself in top form, so it would be silly not to expect him to be a key protagonist here.
Sergio Henao actually already has a 2nd place in this race, despite his young age, and looks capable of going one better here. He looked very strong recently on the steep climbs in Vuelta a Pais Vasco, the strongest on the climbs in fact, holding off Rodriguez on the steep gradients of Alto del Aia, which some described as being worse than the Mur de Huy. As I said above, it will be a day for old heads, and I think Henao may have to use this race as a learning experience.
Of course one rider did finish in front of both Rodriguez and Henao, after escaping solo on the penultimate climb of the day, which like in the Fleche Wallone, immediately preceded the final ascent. That was Simon Yates, who looks like he will be a major contender in these sort of races in the future, and maybe even in the present. Certainly the Fleche Wallone is one of the easier classics, with its short distance and relatively straight-forward tactics, but the Mur de Huy often finds out inexperienced riders, and even experienced ones as many underestimate how hard it is. In windy conditions with a headwind, I expect that it will be a bit to hard for Yates.
Bauke Mollema is a rider that has gone well in the last few years here, finishing 4th, 9th and 7th, proving that he can go with the favourites on this finish. That experience will stand him in good stead here, and he is in pretty good form as well, finishing 2nd overall in Tirreno and then finishing 2nd on the queen stage in Pais Vasco before withdrawing from the race with illness. How well he has recovered from that will be important, and he didn't look great at Amstel, coming in 55th, but he has the tools to do well here if he feels good enough.
Michael Albasini is somewhat of a specialist in this race, his name isn't one that immediately springs to mind when you are thinking about really steep finishes, but if you look at his results in this race, he is rarely far from the win, finishing 7th, 21st, 2nd, 11th, 10th, 9th and 7th in the last seven years. That sort of record has to be respected, even though Albasini hasn't shown any sort of form so far this season. He normally comes into form around now and in the Tour of Romandie in his native Switzerland, so he shouldn't be far off again.
Yes, shock horror I know, this far into the list of contenders and I still haven't found space for Michal Kwiatkowski. The world champion played a very smart race in Amstel Gold to take the win, saving his energy on the Cauberg, when he was unable to make the split, and then perfecting the launch of his sprint and taking memorable win. He won't have the benefit of being able to save energy here however, and I think that he'll be a step or two off the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez. He also won't be given any freedom, as should be expected with the rainbow jersey on his back, and I wouldn't expect any favours done for him like Giampaolo Caruso did by towing him up to the lead group in Amstel.
Speaking of, I firmly believe that we will see the Italian from Katusha take a classics win this year, and whilst I wouldn't have thought that the Fleche Wallonne suits him the best, neither would I have picked him to be the 5th best up the Cauberg in Amstel, and the steeper gradients will suit him better. He may have team orders to attack on the penultimate climb, which will probably hurt his chances for the victory, but then again it could be a blessing if he finds a few willing participants in the break. I will unabashedly say that I hope he wins, he's spent a long time as a domestique and now that he's at the peak of his career he has the ability to take a big win and he should get the opportunity.
Roman Kreuziger is another who could try a move from afar, and try and recreate the magic that saw him take a solo win in the 2013 Amstel. He normally goes fairly well on the Mur de Huy when he goes with the favourites, finishing 8th last year and 17th the year before, but his best chance at actually taking the win will be from range, as he doesn't really have the punch to go with the best here.
A number of Tour de France contenders are here at the start line in race they normally wouldn't contest, and that is because the Mur de Huy will feature in the opening week on the TDF and the big names will want to see firsthand how the racing on it goes. Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Tejay Van Garderen and Vincenzo Nibali are all here to take a look at it up close, and to test their legs. Nibali is the closest to a classics contender, but he's not in top form yet, and would struggle to take on the best riders here, even if he was at his best. As for the others, they are really not one-day racers, but the Fleche Wallonne is one of the easier classics, and, presuming that they can keep themselves relatively fresh, they could be in contention for the final climb up the Mur de Huy. Froome would be the best suited by this climb you would think, he isn't as explosive as some, but we've seen him show some frantic accelerations on the steeper mountains in the Grand Tours.