The cobbles season is here! Fans worldwide are breaking out their frittes, mayonnaise and craft beer and giving voice to Flemish nationalism sentiments. We'll be seeing all the famed hellingen and pave of the Flanders region over the next month or so, many of the sectors a lot more than once, but the first look will be at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
The Course
All the Flemish races use varying combinations of the roads around the Flanders region which makes the map look more than a little complicated. Omloop is regularly based out of Ghent, and that is the same this year, with the race both starting and finishing in Ghent. The description of the course almost by necessity includes some discussion of tactics, so this part will be a bit longer than normal. The weather is predicted to be a cool 8 degrees Celsius with a strong 35 km/h wind from the SSW, which will definitely play some role. Also a small chance of rain.
The race includes three attempts on the Haaghoek section of pave a 2.0 km long fairly mild cobbles, which will nonetheless, due to its length, split up the field somewhat. The early kilometres are just flat, and will be the opportunity for the break to go. After 59km of racing, the riders begin to tackle the first sections of pave and hellingen. These will mainly act as leg sappers, as it is still far to far out to attack. The race swings up the famed Muur de Geraardsberg here (more on that later), but again it's too far out to launch attacks here. The race could break apart with about 70kms to go, with a crosswind section leading into the Kruisberg having serious potential to cause havoc. After the Kruisberg, it is into the Donderig pave, the Taaienberg (above), the Eikenburg and the Wolvenburg. All these are with a strong tailwind, so will provide a good opportunity to attack. Then there is a series of pave sectors, with the Leberg and the Molenberg the last hellingen before the riders head back towards Ghent. Three cobbled sectors and 35kms remain from there and the predicted tailwind should see a strong group stay away from any chasers til the finish.
All the Flemish races use varying combinations of the roads around the Flanders region which makes the map look more than a little complicated. Omloop is regularly based out of Ghent, and that is the same this year, with the race both starting and finishing in Ghent. The description of the course almost by necessity includes some discussion of tactics, so this part will be a bit longer than normal. The weather is predicted to be a cool 8 degrees Celsius with a strong 35 km/h wind from the SSW, which will definitely play some role. Also a small chance of rain.
The race includes three attempts on the Haaghoek section of pave a 2.0 km long fairly mild cobbles, which will nonetheless, due to its length, split up the field somewhat. The early kilometres are just flat, and will be the opportunity for the break to go. After 59km of racing, the riders begin to tackle the first sections of pave and hellingen. These will mainly act as leg sappers, as it is still far to far out to attack. The race swings up the famed Muur de Geraardsberg here (more on that later), but again it's too far out to launch attacks here. The race could break apart with about 70kms to go, with a crosswind section leading into the Kruisberg having serious potential to cause havoc. After the Kruisberg, it is into the Donderig pave, the Taaienberg (above), the Eikenburg and the Wolvenburg. All these are with a strong tailwind, so will provide a good opportunity to attack. Then there is a series of pave sectors, with the Leberg and the Molenberg the last hellingen before the riders head back towards Ghent. Three cobbled sectors and 35kms remain from there and the predicted tailwind should see a strong group stay away from any chasers til the finish.
History
A bit of history on Geraardsbergen home of the storied Muur de Geraardsbergen, which was (in)famously dumped from the Ronde Van Vlaanderen in 2012, but has found a home in the Omloop. The whole Flanders region was of course decimated by trench warfare in World War I, but the area is perhaps most famous for its joint Canadian-Belgian memorial to the RCAF crew of a Halifax bomber which was shot down into a swamp and the wreck then recovered 53 years later. Its engine now forms the centrepiece of the Geraardsbergen war memorial. Just to show that this history informs my analysis, I'll look at the roles the two Canadians Hugo Houle and Antoine Duchesne will play in the race.
A bit of history on Geraardsbergen home of the storied Muur de Geraardsbergen, which was (in)famously dumped from the Ronde Van Vlaanderen in 2012, but has found a home in the Omloop. The whole Flanders region was of course decimated by trench warfare in World War I, but the area is perhaps most famous for its joint Canadian-Belgian memorial to the RCAF crew of a Halifax bomber which was shot down into a swamp and the wreck then recovered 53 years later. Its engine now forms the centrepiece of the Geraardsbergen war memorial. Just to show that this history informs my analysis, I'll look at the roles the two Canadians Hugo Houle and Antoine Duchesne will play in the race.
The Tactics
The cobbled races often come down to a combination of who has the legs, the luck and the numbers. With the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, you can also ask who has the early form as well, with a lot of the main riders present only having 5-10 race days in their legs and their sights set on objectives in a month's time. A good sprint is also a very useful attribute to possess, with the finish always going down to a small group sprint in recent editions.
Teams with riders that they match that criteria will be riding position for them all day, watch in particular the battle to be in the front going up the Kruisberg and the Taaienberg. Being behind leaves you having to go around suffering riders on the very narrow roads, and also possibly being caught behind crashes. Being in front means that you benefit from others problems and also having the freedom to follow attacks or make your own.
As always, a large part of the tactical discussion will come down to what Etixx-Quickstep are planning to do. The strongest team in the race, I count 6 potential winners, they have the strength to bust the race apart, and when they decide to do that will shape what the rest of the teams do. The general thought in these races is that is better to anticipate the moves if you are weaker, as its very hard to chase down from behind, for the reasons mentioned above. It is also hard to go with the moves, as we are talking about guys like Boonen and Vanmarcke, riders with serious power making these accelerations, too hard for most to follow. So expect to see a number of teams try and attack a bit earlier so they can at least have someone in position if the favourites attack.
As for the favourites' teams they will want a war of attrition to whittle the field down as much as possible, maybe even trying to split the field so they have 5-6 riders in a group of 15-20. That's the ideal scenario as from there they can really use their strength in numbers. The only team that can really force a move like that is EQS, other teams would be very happy to get three riders into an elite group like that. On a normal day, I would say that this means that finding a race winner outside EQS is unlikely.
However, with the weather conditions likely to force the race to be very selective, and the tailwind slightly nullifying the advantage of having weight in numbers, I think that this race will be run less to suit a big team, and will more likely go to the strongest rider on the day.
The cobbled races often come down to a combination of who has the legs, the luck and the numbers. With the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, you can also ask who has the early form as well, with a lot of the main riders present only having 5-10 race days in their legs and their sights set on objectives in a month's time. A good sprint is also a very useful attribute to possess, with the finish always going down to a small group sprint in recent editions.
Teams with riders that they match that criteria will be riding position for them all day, watch in particular the battle to be in the front going up the Kruisberg and the Taaienberg. Being behind leaves you having to go around suffering riders on the very narrow roads, and also possibly being caught behind crashes. Being in front means that you benefit from others problems and also having the freedom to follow attacks or make your own.
As always, a large part of the tactical discussion will come down to what Etixx-Quickstep are planning to do. The strongest team in the race, I count 6 potential winners, they have the strength to bust the race apart, and when they decide to do that will shape what the rest of the teams do. The general thought in these races is that is better to anticipate the moves if you are weaker, as its very hard to chase down from behind, for the reasons mentioned above. It is also hard to go with the moves, as we are talking about guys like Boonen and Vanmarcke, riders with serious power making these accelerations, too hard for most to follow. So expect to see a number of teams try and attack a bit earlier so they can at least have someone in position if the favourites attack.
As for the favourites' teams they will want a war of attrition to whittle the field down as much as possible, maybe even trying to split the field so they have 5-6 riders in a group of 15-20. That's the ideal scenario as from there they can really use their strength in numbers. The only team that can really force a move like that is EQS, other teams would be very happy to get three riders into an elite group like that. On a normal day, I would say that this means that finding a race winner outside EQS is unlikely.
However, with the weather conditions likely to force the race to be very selective, and the tailwind slightly nullifying the advantage of having weight in numbers, I think that this race will be run less to suit a big team, and will more likely go to the strongest rider on the day.
The Contenders
Sep Vanmarcke, being interviewed in the lead-up said that whilst they were probably only 5 or 6 riders that are potential winners of Flanders and Roubaix, Omloop Het Niuewsblad is open to about 20 winners. So rather than single them all out, I'll group most into handy identifying features.
Riders with Good Form and History in Cobbles Races:
Ian Stannard, Phillip Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Boonen, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, Alexander Kristoff, Tom van Asbroeck.
Riders who haven't shown much form yet, but are often players on the cobbles:
Guillame van Keirsbulck, Stijn Vandenbergh, Arnaud Demare, Sep Vanmarcke, Maarten Wynants, Steve Chainel, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Bjorn Leukemans, Sebastian Turgot, Sebastian Minard.
Young riders with the potential to do well:
Nikias Arndt, Sven Erik Bystrom, Alexiy Tsatevich, Tiesj Benoot.
As I said above, I expect legs to be the decisive factor in this race, so I'd pick one of the riders in that first group to win this one, but I won't discount Sep Vanmarcke, who was over in Algarve getting some training in whilst everyone was racing in the Middle East. He has looked the strongest for the past few years on the pave, but hasn't converted it into a monument win just yet. He has won the Omloop though, and despite him claiming he is only "83.57% ready" in a rather fatuous quote, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in good shape here. He'll have a strong team as well, with Wynants and Van Asbroeck both skilful cobblers.
One of the biggest tactical factors in the race will be where Alexander Kristoff is at any given time. The pre-eminent sprinter on hard days, he showed last season that he really get through the cobbles as well, and absolutely no one will want to go to the finish with him. For that reason I don't think he'll win, as he'll likely be isolated, and will get no cooperation in an attack. He does look in great form however, and might even make a solo move stick.
I did say I'd look at the Canadians in the race, to honour the Halifax LW682 crew, and in Hugo Houle of AG2R and Antoine Duchesne of Europcar we have the next generation of Canadian cycling coming through the ranks. Interestingly the two seem to be friends as well, sharing quite a few tweets and photos with both present, despite being on rival teams. Houle did the cobbles schedule last season, without any notable results, but he did at least finish most of the races. You would think he'd be a domestique for the more experienced likes of Turgot, Minard and Gaudin, but he is coming off a very strong 3rd in the Tour of San Luis time trial, so perhaps he will be given some license to do his own thing. Duchesne seems to be more inclined to going up hills than cobbles from his results, but he's only young, and hasn't done much cobbles racing before so perhaps he will surprise with a good ride.
The Verdict
Sylvain Chavanel is my pick for this one, mainly because he looks to be in good form, and fits all of my criteria for a winner, plus one other characteristic that I didn't mention, the killer instinct. Riders with this aren't afraid to leave it all out on the road and risk losing in order to win. Chavanel has this mentality, and I can see him winning out of a small group.
Sep Vanmarcke, being interviewed in the lead-up said that whilst they were probably only 5 or 6 riders that are potential winners of Flanders and Roubaix, Omloop Het Niuewsblad is open to about 20 winners. So rather than single them all out, I'll group most into handy identifying features.
Riders with Good Form and History in Cobbles Races:
Ian Stannard, Phillip Gilbert, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Boonen, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, Alexander Kristoff, Tom van Asbroeck.
Riders who haven't shown much form yet, but are often players on the cobbles:
Guillame van Keirsbulck, Stijn Vandenbergh, Arnaud Demare, Sep Vanmarcke, Maarten Wynants, Steve Chainel, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Bjorn Leukemans, Sebastian Turgot, Sebastian Minard.
Young riders with the potential to do well:
Nikias Arndt, Sven Erik Bystrom, Alexiy Tsatevich, Tiesj Benoot.
As I said above, I expect legs to be the decisive factor in this race, so I'd pick one of the riders in that first group to win this one, but I won't discount Sep Vanmarcke, who was over in Algarve getting some training in whilst everyone was racing in the Middle East. He has looked the strongest for the past few years on the pave, but hasn't converted it into a monument win just yet. He has won the Omloop though, and despite him claiming he is only "83.57% ready" in a rather fatuous quote, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in good shape here. He'll have a strong team as well, with Wynants and Van Asbroeck both skilful cobblers.
One of the biggest tactical factors in the race will be where Alexander Kristoff is at any given time. The pre-eminent sprinter on hard days, he showed last season that he really get through the cobbles as well, and absolutely no one will want to go to the finish with him. For that reason I don't think he'll win, as he'll likely be isolated, and will get no cooperation in an attack. He does look in great form however, and might even make a solo move stick.
I did say I'd look at the Canadians in the race, to honour the Halifax LW682 crew, and in Hugo Houle of AG2R and Antoine Duchesne of Europcar we have the next generation of Canadian cycling coming through the ranks. Interestingly the two seem to be friends as well, sharing quite a few tweets and photos with both present, despite being on rival teams. Houle did the cobbles schedule last season, without any notable results, but he did at least finish most of the races. You would think he'd be a domestique for the more experienced likes of Turgot, Minard and Gaudin, but he is coming off a very strong 3rd in the Tour of San Luis time trial, so perhaps he will be given some license to do his own thing. Duchesne seems to be more inclined to going up hills than cobbles from his results, but he's only young, and hasn't done much cobbles racing before so perhaps he will surprise with a good ride.
The Verdict
Sylvain Chavanel is my pick for this one, mainly because he looks to be in good form, and fits all of my criteria for a winner, plus one other characteristic that I didn't mention, the killer instinct. Riders with this aren't afraid to leave it all out on the road and risk losing in order to win. Chavanel has this mentality, and I can see him winning out of a small group.