Tim Wellens again took charge of the race with a win in the last stage, putting about a minute into most of his rivals, almost an exact replica of his performance last year. He now has a handy buffer on GC and looks almost certain to win the race overall. However, Greg Van Avermaet isn't in the habit of giving up easily, and if there is a stage where Wellens will be most in difficulty, it is over the cobbles here.
The Course
The first half of the course is rolling terrain, but the climbs over the cobbles begin in earnest after 75.3 kilometres in this 188.6 kilometre course of the hellingen of Flanders. The Mont (2 km, 4%) is first, and is soon followed by the the Kanarieberg (1 km, 8%) and from there it is rolling terrain for 10 km and a short descent into the Edelareberg (1.6 km, 4%). The Leberg (1 km, 4%) and Berendries (1 km, 8%) are regular features in Ronde Van Vlaanderen (RVV) and they can be difficult, even this early in the race. They mark the start of an intensive series of climbs into the finishing circuit, and are followed by the Valkenberg (800m, 6%) and the Tenbosse (500m, 7%).
Then there is a circuit which is 25.6 km long and begins with the Denderoorberg (700m, 8%), followed by the Muur van Geraardsbergen (1.1 km, 8.7%), the Bosberg, and the Onkerzelestraat (1.5 km, 3%). The circuit ends most of the way up the Muur van Geraardsberg, with a turn taking the riders on the loop. The hellingen are fairly evenly spaced throughout, and the circuit is run twice with a 6 km addition on the end which includes a summit of the Muur van Geraardsbergen, which takes the riders into the finish, but the full length of the climb isn't raced, only 600m at 7.6%.
Overall, it is a very hard course comparable with the RVV, what it lacks in endurance of the very long classic, it makes up with the packing of the climbs into a more dense course over the second half. The weather will be a lot kinder today for the riders without the rain that has plagued the peleton in recent stages. It will be a mild 20 degrees Celsius, with only light winds throughout.
The first half of the course is rolling terrain, but the climbs over the cobbles begin in earnest after 75.3 kilometres in this 188.6 kilometre course of the hellingen of Flanders. The Mont (2 km, 4%) is first, and is soon followed by the the Kanarieberg (1 km, 8%) and from there it is rolling terrain for 10 km and a short descent into the Edelareberg (1.6 km, 4%). The Leberg (1 km, 4%) and Berendries (1 km, 8%) are regular features in Ronde Van Vlaanderen (RVV) and they can be difficult, even this early in the race. They mark the start of an intensive series of climbs into the finishing circuit, and are followed by the Valkenberg (800m, 6%) and the Tenbosse (500m, 7%).
Then there is a circuit which is 25.6 km long and begins with the Denderoorberg (700m, 8%), followed by the Muur van Geraardsbergen (1.1 km, 8.7%), the Bosberg, and the Onkerzelestraat (1.5 km, 3%). The circuit ends most of the way up the Muur van Geraardsberg, with a turn taking the riders on the loop. The hellingen are fairly evenly spaced throughout, and the circuit is run twice with a 6 km addition on the end which includes a summit of the Muur van Geraardsbergen, which takes the riders into the finish, but the full length of the climb isn't raced, only 600m at 7.6%.
Overall, it is a very hard course comparable with the RVV, what it lacks in endurance of the very long classic, it makes up with the packing of the climbs into a more dense course over the second half. The weather will be a lot kinder today for the riders without the rain that has plagued the peleton in recent stages. It will be a mild 20 degrees Celsius, with only light winds throughout.
The Tactics
The General Classification may look out of the reach at the start of this stage, but it is very hard, and Tim Wellens isn't the strongest over the cobbles, and he could be vulnerable here. Greg Van Avermaet certainly won't give up, and I would expect the race to really be driven hard by BMC over the initial climbs, and Van Avermaet will be looking for moments of weakness throughout, for his opportunity to attack. He has to make up over a minute, so he will either want to drop Wellens with his team driving the pace, or attack from afar if Wellens looks to be coping well. Lotto Soudal do have a strong squad to support their leader here however, in RVV top 10 finishers Jurgen Roelandts and Tiesj Benoot, who has looked in very good form in this race.
What this all amounts to is that there will likely be a very hard pace set once the race reaches the climbs, and it will be likely very hard for riders to escape until the favourites attack. There may be still be some chance to escape on the flat, but with the pace to be set high on the cobbles, it will be very hard for the lesser riders to maintain any advantage. Thus, it should be for the best riders to win, unless the early breakaway is given a big advantage, which may actually happen, especially if it is made up of riders that are unthreatening on GC, which is quite likely, given that a lot of riders are well down the standings.
The General Classification may look out of the reach at the start of this stage, but it is very hard, and Tim Wellens isn't the strongest over the cobbles, and he could be vulnerable here. Greg Van Avermaet certainly won't give up, and I would expect the race to really be driven hard by BMC over the initial climbs, and Van Avermaet will be looking for moments of weakness throughout, for his opportunity to attack. He has to make up over a minute, so he will either want to drop Wellens with his team driving the pace, or attack from afar if Wellens looks to be coping well. Lotto Soudal do have a strong squad to support their leader here however, in RVV top 10 finishers Jurgen Roelandts and Tiesj Benoot, who has looked in very good form in this race.
What this all amounts to is that there will likely be a very hard pace set once the race reaches the climbs, and it will be likely very hard for riders to escape until the favourites attack. There may be still be some chance to escape on the flat, but with the pace to be set high on the cobbles, it will be very hard for the lesser riders to maintain any advantage. Thus, it should be for the best riders to win, unless the early breakaway is given a big advantage, which may actually happen, especially if it is made up of riders that are unthreatening on GC, which is quite likely, given that a lot of riders are well down the standings.
The Contenders
Greg Van Avermaet looks very strong this race, and only missed Wellens attack by not being on the alert. He has a strong history over the cobbles and he is one of the strongest on the startlist over the hellingen. He won't neccesarily be going all out for the stage win however, and he may be happy enough to drag a passenger or two along if they help him a little bit with gaining time on GC. He has a strong team at his disposal, more on this terrain than the previous stage, with Quinziato more suited to the cobbles than the asphalted climbs. Gilbert is a way back on GC as well, and he will be more disposed to working for his teammate's victory than previous stages, where he looked to be more of a rival than anything else. Despite his strength over this terrain, I find it hard to believe that he will be able to reconcile the objectives of trying to win on GC and win the stage. Despite his strength, I think a few will be able to follow him when he attacks, and then he will find it hard to shake any passengers and maintain his drive for time over Wellens.
Tiesj Benoot would be another contender here, but today he will ride in service of Wellens, and I can't really see a scenario where he has a chance of going for the win. He will be a key worker for Wellens, and will be the main guy over the final climbs for the race leader.
Niki Terpstra has had a disappointing race so far, unlucky in the TT when he needed a bike change, and then dropping off the pace on the last stage over the hard climbs. He is out of the race for the GC, but he will fancy his chances on this stage, which suits him very well as a Flanders specialist. Sure, his big win was in Paris-Roubaix, but he won by virtue of team tactics there, and he looks more comfortable on the hellingen than the pave. He will be tough to beat here, he doesn't have the best sprint, but the race finishes on an uphill, and he will have plenty of chances to make a difference on the climbs leading in. Etixx-Quickstep have also brought Tom Boonen, who also excels on this terrain, and is coming into some decent form, but I think he'll be working for Terpstra here. Yves Laempaert is also a good cobbler, who will provide good support well into the stage for his leader.
Alexey Lutsenko and Lars Boom would have been decent chances for the stage win here Astana here, but they'll be put in the service of Andriy Grivko here, who has both a decent shot at the stage win and also at getting a decent GC position. He isn't the most explosive of riders, which is why I think it unlikely that he will actually win, but he is a very strong rider who will be very hard to drop in this sort of terrain.
Christopher Juul-Jensen is having a strong Tour, he was very active on the last stage, and is sitting in 7th at the moment, just behind his teammate Michael Rogers. He will stronger than his Australian colleague over the cobbles however, and he may try to finish off an impressive race for him with a win here. I'm not entirely sure that the race will be run to suit, with it likely to be hard throughout, and Juul-Jensen not quite having the strength to go with the best. He will try and take advantage of lulls in the race, most likely on the flats and descents to attack and hold the advantage for as long as possible.
Heinrich Haussler is another who will most likely try and anticipate the best riders here, but he has been riding with strength so far, in particular doing well over the Amstel stage, where he held onto the front group into the finish. He specialises in the cobbled races, and although he hasn't taken any good results recently, he is experienced over the hellingen, and IAM have stated that he'll be looking for a good result here.
Greg Van Avermaet looks very strong this race, and only missed Wellens attack by not being on the alert. He has a strong history over the cobbles and he is one of the strongest on the startlist over the hellingen. He won't neccesarily be going all out for the stage win however, and he may be happy enough to drag a passenger or two along if they help him a little bit with gaining time on GC. He has a strong team at his disposal, more on this terrain than the previous stage, with Quinziato more suited to the cobbles than the asphalted climbs. Gilbert is a way back on GC as well, and he will be more disposed to working for his teammate's victory than previous stages, where he looked to be more of a rival than anything else. Despite his strength over this terrain, I find it hard to believe that he will be able to reconcile the objectives of trying to win on GC and win the stage. Despite his strength, I think a few will be able to follow him when he attacks, and then he will find it hard to shake any passengers and maintain his drive for time over Wellens.
Tiesj Benoot would be another contender here, but today he will ride in service of Wellens, and I can't really see a scenario where he has a chance of going for the win. He will be a key worker for Wellens, and will be the main guy over the final climbs for the race leader.
Niki Terpstra has had a disappointing race so far, unlucky in the TT when he needed a bike change, and then dropping off the pace on the last stage over the hard climbs. He is out of the race for the GC, but he will fancy his chances on this stage, which suits him very well as a Flanders specialist. Sure, his big win was in Paris-Roubaix, but he won by virtue of team tactics there, and he looks more comfortable on the hellingen than the pave. He will be tough to beat here, he doesn't have the best sprint, but the race finishes on an uphill, and he will have plenty of chances to make a difference on the climbs leading in. Etixx-Quickstep have also brought Tom Boonen, who also excels on this terrain, and is coming into some decent form, but I think he'll be working for Terpstra here. Yves Laempaert is also a good cobbler, who will provide good support well into the stage for his leader.
Alexey Lutsenko and Lars Boom would have been decent chances for the stage win here Astana here, but they'll be put in the service of Andriy Grivko here, who has both a decent shot at the stage win and also at getting a decent GC position. He isn't the most explosive of riders, which is why I think it unlikely that he will actually win, but he is a very strong rider who will be very hard to drop in this sort of terrain.
Christopher Juul-Jensen is having a strong Tour, he was very active on the last stage, and is sitting in 7th at the moment, just behind his teammate Michael Rogers. He will stronger than his Australian colleague over the cobbles however, and he may try to finish off an impressive race for him with a win here. I'm not entirely sure that the race will be run to suit, with it likely to be hard throughout, and Juul-Jensen not quite having the strength to go with the best. He will try and take advantage of lulls in the race, most likely on the flats and descents to attack and hold the advantage for as long as possible.
Heinrich Haussler is another who will most likely try and anticipate the best riders here, but he has been riding with strength so far, in particular doing well over the Amstel stage, where he held onto the front group into the finish. He specialises in the cobbled races, and although he hasn't taken any good results recently, he is experienced over the hellingen, and IAM have stated that he'll be looking for a good result here.
The Verdict
I think that Niki Terpstra will be one to beat here. He will be able to take advantage on the battle for GC, to use the riders of BMC and Lotto-Soudal to simply sit on wheels until he is ready to attack and take the stage win.
I think that Niki Terpstra will be one to beat here. He will be able to take advantage on the battle for GC, to use the riders of BMC and Lotto-Soudal to simply sit on wheels until he is ready to attack and take the stage win.