Johan Le Bon took a surprise win from the early break, which the peleton let get out of control in the finale, with no teams keen to take on pacemaking duties until it was too late. Wilco Kelderman and 4 others made a move off the front near the finish, with the Dutchman moving into the leader's jersey, and Wellens also gaining important time.
Today is the mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege stage, which proved to be the decisive point of the last edition of the Eneco Tour, where Tim Wellens went free in a long range move which resulted in him taking almost a minute on the stage, which set him up nicely in the GC which he went on to win.
Today is the mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege stage, which proved to be the decisive point of the last edition of the Eneco Tour, where Tim Wellens went free in a long range move which resulted in him taking almost a minute on the stage, which set him up nicely in the GC which he went on to win.
The Course
The stage contains quite a few of the climbs that are contained in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (LBL), and the profile is reminiscent of that famous race. It is a bit easier and a bit shorter than LBL, but that doesn't necessarily make the racing much easier, as it is more intense and attacking that the longer races, where endurance is often the deciding factor. The key section will be the finishing circuit which comes with 68 kilometres remaining. The race should have been taking shape for some time before then however, with 10 climbs already being tackled by the peleton. There are a few climbs just before the circuit which will probably see some action, the Hoffhaize (2.3 km, 5%) comes with 80 km remaining, then it is onto the Rau de Cowan (900m, 6%) and then the Cote Saint-Roche (1 km, 11%), just before the circuit starts. The loop is 34.2 km long and starts with the Cote Saint-Roche again, before a 4 km run into the Rue Bois des Moines (1.2 km, 8%) and 8 km later there is the Achouffe (800m, 8%) and Le Vieux Chemin (400m, 5%). There is still quite a ways to go to the finishing line, with 11.9 km still to cover from the top of the climb. The final kilometre is slightly uphill and technical, and it will be important to be the first through the final corner which comes with 300m to go.
The weather was pretty awful on Stage 5 and looks set to be even worse in Stage 6, with more rain predicted, and it expected to be more sustained, rather than sporadic like the storms the riders faced already. It will be mild with a maximum of 21 degrees Celsius.
The stage contains quite a few of the climbs that are contained in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (LBL), and the profile is reminiscent of that famous race. It is a bit easier and a bit shorter than LBL, but that doesn't necessarily make the racing much easier, as it is more intense and attacking that the longer races, where endurance is often the deciding factor. The key section will be the finishing circuit which comes with 68 kilometres remaining. The race should have been taking shape for some time before then however, with 10 climbs already being tackled by the peleton. There are a few climbs just before the circuit which will probably see some action, the Hoffhaize (2.3 km, 5%) comes with 80 km remaining, then it is onto the Rau de Cowan (900m, 6%) and then the Cote Saint-Roche (1 km, 11%), just before the circuit starts. The loop is 34.2 km long and starts with the Cote Saint-Roche again, before a 4 km run into the Rue Bois des Moines (1.2 km, 8%) and 8 km later there is the Achouffe (800m, 8%) and Le Vieux Chemin (400m, 5%). There is still quite a ways to go to the finishing line, with 11.9 km still to cover from the top of the climb. The final kilometre is slightly uphill and technical, and it will be important to be the first through the final corner which comes with 300m to go.
The weather was pretty awful on Stage 5 and looks set to be even worse in Stage 6, with more rain predicted, and it expected to be more sustained, rather than sporadic like the storms the riders faced already. It will be mild with a maximum of 21 degrees Celsius.
The Tactics
None of the main teams took on the responsibility for the chase until it was too late yesterday, but it seems unlikely that the same will occur again today. Lotto NL-Jumbo were quite standoffish, trying to force the other teams into doing work, and the tactic worked for them, as they tired out BMC's domestiques, and then launched a move off the front with Kelderman following a strong Lotto Soudal move, where Greipel did a superb job in driving the escape for his team leader Wellens. There weren't too many pictures of the chase from the main bunch, but I can imagine that BMC weren't given too much help in chasing the attack down, and there was another attack at one stage, though it was hard to make out the composition of the move from the helicopter. In the end, there wasn't a great deal of time lost, and the race is still to be decided in the final two stages.
In the coming stage, certain riders will have to take time on those that will excel on the cobbled stage, and I would expect the pace to be driven by Lotto NL-Jumbo, Lotto Soudal and Tinkoff-Saxo. BMC will be very keen to take back the time they lost on today's stage as well, but I'm sure that they will be more keen to keep their troops in reserve for the critical points in the race, and not over commit like they did today. Other teams, like Astana, FDJ and Cannodale-Garmin, will be on the defensive, and will be happy for the race to stay together, but they don't really have the strength in their teams to achieve this, so it should be a race run hard, where the best riders can make a big difference.
However, the terrain gets easier and easier as the race progresses, and the toughest climbs are a long way from the finish, which should mean that there is a general regrouping after them, with plenty of opportunity for the larger groups to catch back on with the strongest riders on the flat. In that circumstance, it will be very hard for the marked riders like the BMC duo to make a difference, and I think it more likely that some unmarked men are allowed to go free and contest the stage win.
None of the main teams took on the responsibility for the chase until it was too late yesterday, but it seems unlikely that the same will occur again today. Lotto NL-Jumbo were quite standoffish, trying to force the other teams into doing work, and the tactic worked for them, as they tired out BMC's domestiques, and then launched a move off the front with Kelderman following a strong Lotto Soudal move, where Greipel did a superb job in driving the escape for his team leader Wellens. There weren't too many pictures of the chase from the main bunch, but I can imagine that BMC weren't given too much help in chasing the attack down, and there was another attack at one stage, though it was hard to make out the composition of the move from the helicopter. In the end, there wasn't a great deal of time lost, and the race is still to be decided in the final two stages.
In the coming stage, certain riders will have to take time on those that will excel on the cobbled stage, and I would expect the pace to be driven by Lotto NL-Jumbo, Lotto Soudal and Tinkoff-Saxo. BMC will be very keen to take back the time they lost on today's stage as well, but I'm sure that they will be more keen to keep their troops in reserve for the critical points in the race, and not over commit like they did today. Other teams, like Astana, FDJ and Cannodale-Garmin, will be on the defensive, and will be happy for the race to stay together, but they don't really have the strength in their teams to achieve this, so it should be a race run hard, where the best riders can make a big difference.
However, the terrain gets easier and easier as the race progresses, and the toughest climbs are a long way from the finish, which should mean that there is a general regrouping after them, with plenty of opportunity for the larger groups to catch back on with the strongest riders on the flat. In that circumstance, it will be very hard for the marked riders like the BMC duo to make a difference, and I think it more likely that some unmarked men are allowed to go free and contest the stage win.
The Contenders
BMC's GC situation is no clearer than it was before, with Van Avermaet and Gilbert very close on time, and it didn't look like either was working for the other. Both looked strong however, and Gilbert was strong in the sprint to the finish, only beaten by Benoot, who had been sitting on with his leader up the road. They will probably split their efforts here, with one attacking, whilst the other follows wheels and then counters if the opportunity arrives. It is hard to say which is going better at the moment, but I will favour Gilbert on this course, as has won Liege-Bastogne-Liege (LBL) in 2011 and of course he is vastly experienced at this sort of racing. Both will find it very hard to get away unless the race is really hard, as both will be heavily marked by the other contenders.
Tim Wellens made a good move on the back of some very strong work by Greipel to take some valuable seconds in the GC battle. He will have to continue this push, as he isn't as strong on the cobbles, so he should be on the attack again. He isn't a particularly strong sprinter, so he will probably have to win solo or with a last ditch attack in to the finish. He is looking in good form, his best of the season if truth be told, so he will be keen to have a good go here, and if he's at his best, he will be very tough to beat.
Julien Alaphillipe came 2nd in LBL this year, surprising everyone, especially given that it was his first participation. He was only beaten by Valverde, and the Spaniard isn't present here, so he will fancy his chances of going one better. I'm not entirely convinced with his form however, he didn't do as well as I thought he might in the TT, and then he finished behind quite a few in the sprint to the finish from the main group. Of course, it wasn't for the win, so he probably didn't fully extend himself, but he should have been the fastest in the group if in good form. He is still a very good rider however, and it wouldn't be a shock if he won.
Wilco Kelderman moved in the lead with a smart attack, making great use of Lotto-Soudal's work, before doing some pace-making himself and confirming his advantage into the finish. His lead on the GC is tenuous however, he isn't as experienced as many others in classics-style racing, and he will particularly be dreading the final stage over the cobbled hellingen. He has raced LBL before, this year when he finished 37th, but he was with the front group until the final climb, so perhaps it was the distance, rather than the difficulties of the course that found him out. The shorter stage here may suit him better, and he will want to make sure that he does as good as possible here, as he knows that he will likely concede time to the cobbled specialists on the following day. I doubt he'll win this stage, but he surprised today, and could do so again.
Michael Rogers has been riding very well so far this race, and is sitting in a handy position on GC. Like many others he isn't noted for his skills over the cobbles, so he will have to take time here over the hillier terrain that he prefers. He doesn't have a good history in the classics, never achieving a high finish, but that should mean that he won't be as keenly watched. He looks in good form, and could make a long-range move stick if he can find another willing rider or two, and he has experience in finishing off races in that scenario. Michael Valgren and Christopher Juul-Jensen are slightly further back on GC, but won't be marked and could make a similar move to that outlined above.
Fabio Felline has all the tools to do well in classics style racing, but he hasn't put it all together yet. He finished in the front group on the last stage, but he didn't sprint up to his full potential, finishing behind riders he would normally be expected to have the beating of. He is in decent enough form, doing well in the TT, but he doesn't appear to be as comfortable on the shorter climbs, and he probably won't be helped by the steeper challenges here. He is a good chance to win if a larger group makes the finish however, which despite being unlikely, could still happen.
Alexey Lutsenko lost time today after an unlucky mechanical left him scrambling to get back on. He is still very young, 22, and improving as a rider, but he looks to have the right sort of ability and temperament to be a quality classics racer. He won a stage of the Tour de Suisse on a hilly course, and he has done well before in stage races where the GC was contested on the lumpy terrain. He hasn't got a great history in LBL, racing it twice for two DNFs, but given that he was 20 and 21 at the time, he can be excused. I can't see him matching it with the best here, but he has lost a bit of time, and he may be allowed some freedom to attack from afar. He may have to work for his team leaders Boom and Grivko, both of whom are sitting nicely in the GC, but if not he could surprise here.
Marco Marcato lost a lot of time in the TT as predicted, but he rebounded today to produce a good ride where he finished in the main group, and he was racing handily throughout the stage, looking to join the right move. He unfortunately missed the decisive move, but this stage will give him another chance to go for a win, and perhaps move himself up on GC. He is one of the more consistent riders at the Pro Continental level, and he is rarely far from the pointy end of any race, though he rarely wins. He won't be closely marked, as he doesn't have a big reputation and he is a way down on the GC, and he can use that to his advantage to do a good ride here.
Diego Ulissi got dropped on Stage 5, and is now out of the GC battle, but he showed at the Tour of Poland that he is coming into form, and he will be more suited to the harder climbs here, rather than the constant up and down of the previous stage, He won't be marked at all, as he is over 7 minutes down, and he can use that to make a longer range attack stick, possibly in concert with the riders mentioned above. He does possess a good sprint, which will allow him to finish off a move from a small group.
Tiesj Benoot has been riding very strongly this season, and particularly well recently. If he could do a good TT he would have been one of the main contenders for the GC, but he has lost a bit too much time. He is an incredibly versatile rider, excelling over the hills and cobbles and also possessing a very good sprint. He showcased that sprint on Stage 5, overtaking Gilbert into the finish, and he can hang on to the front group then he will be very hard to beat on the flat finish. He hasn't proven his ability to go with the best on the steep climbs, but he was good in Clasica San Sebastian taking 19th, only 24 seconds down from the winner. He also lacks experience, and will probably be required to work for Wellens, so I'm discounting his chances here.
BMC's GC situation is no clearer than it was before, with Van Avermaet and Gilbert very close on time, and it didn't look like either was working for the other. Both looked strong however, and Gilbert was strong in the sprint to the finish, only beaten by Benoot, who had been sitting on with his leader up the road. They will probably split their efforts here, with one attacking, whilst the other follows wheels and then counters if the opportunity arrives. It is hard to say which is going better at the moment, but I will favour Gilbert on this course, as has won Liege-Bastogne-Liege (LBL) in 2011 and of course he is vastly experienced at this sort of racing. Both will find it very hard to get away unless the race is really hard, as both will be heavily marked by the other contenders.
Tim Wellens made a good move on the back of some very strong work by Greipel to take some valuable seconds in the GC battle. He will have to continue this push, as he isn't as strong on the cobbles, so he should be on the attack again. He isn't a particularly strong sprinter, so he will probably have to win solo or with a last ditch attack in to the finish. He is looking in good form, his best of the season if truth be told, so he will be keen to have a good go here, and if he's at his best, he will be very tough to beat.
Julien Alaphillipe came 2nd in LBL this year, surprising everyone, especially given that it was his first participation. He was only beaten by Valverde, and the Spaniard isn't present here, so he will fancy his chances of going one better. I'm not entirely convinced with his form however, he didn't do as well as I thought he might in the TT, and then he finished behind quite a few in the sprint to the finish from the main group. Of course, it wasn't for the win, so he probably didn't fully extend himself, but he should have been the fastest in the group if in good form. He is still a very good rider however, and it wouldn't be a shock if he won.
Wilco Kelderman moved in the lead with a smart attack, making great use of Lotto-Soudal's work, before doing some pace-making himself and confirming his advantage into the finish. His lead on the GC is tenuous however, he isn't as experienced as many others in classics-style racing, and he will particularly be dreading the final stage over the cobbled hellingen. He has raced LBL before, this year when he finished 37th, but he was with the front group until the final climb, so perhaps it was the distance, rather than the difficulties of the course that found him out. The shorter stage here may suit him better, and he will want to make sure that he does as good as possible here, as he knows that he will likely concede time to the cobbled specialists on the following day. I doubt he'll win this stage, but he surprised today, and could do so again.
Michael Rogers has been riding very well so far this race, and is sitting in a handy position on GC. Like many others he isn't noted for his skills over the cobbles, so he will have to take time here over the hillier terrain that he prefers. He doesn't have a good history in the classics, never achieving a high finish, but that should mean that he won't be as keenly watched. He looks in good form, and could make a long-range move stick if he can find another willing rider or two, and he has experience in finishing off races in that scenario. Michael Valgren and Christopher Juul-Jensen are slightly further back on GC, but won't be marked and could make a similar move to that outlined above.
Fabio Felline has all the tools to do well in classics style racing, but he hasn't put it all together yet. He finished in the front group on the last stage, but he didn't sprint up to his full potential, finishing behind riders he would normally be expected to have the beating of. He is in decent enough form, doing well in the TT, but he doesn't appear to be as comfortable on the shorter climbs, and he probably won't be helped by the steeper challenges here. He is a good chance to win if a larger group makes the finish however, which despite being unlikely, could still happen.
Alexey Lutsenko lost time today after an unlucky mechanical left him scrambling to get back on. He is still very young, 22, and improving as a rider, but he looks to have the right sort of ability and temperament to be a quality classics racer. He won a stage of the Tour de Suisse on a hilly course, and he has done well before in stage races where the GC was contested on the lumpy terrain. He hasn't got a great history in LBL, racing it twice for two DNFs, but given that he was 20 and 21 at the time, he can be excused. I can't see him matching it with the best here, but he has lost a bit of time, and he may be allowed some freedom to attack from afar. He may have to work for his team leaders Boom and Grivko, both of whom are sitting nicely in the GC, but if not he could surprise here.
Marco Marcato lost a lot of time in the TT as predicted, but he rebounded today to produce a good ride where he finished in the main group, and he was racing handily throughout the stage, looking to join the right move. He unfortunately missed the decisive move, but this stage will give him another chance to go for a win, and perhaps move himself up on GC. He is one of the more consistent riders at the Pro Continental level, and he is rarely far from the pointy end of any race, though he rarely wins. He won't be closely marked, as he doesn't have a big reputation and he is a way down on the GC, and he can use that to his advantage to do a good ride here.
Diego Ulissi got dropped on Stage 5, and is now out of the GC battle, but he showed at the Tour of Poland that he is coming into form, and he will be more suited to the harder climbs here, rather than the constant up and down of the previous stage, He won't be marked at all, as he is over 7 minutes down, and he can use that to make a longer range attack stick, possibly in concert with the riders mentioned above. He does possess a good sprint, which will allow him to finish off a move from a small group.
Tiesj Benoot has been riding very strongly this season, and particularly well recently. If he could do a good TT he would have been one of the main contenders for the GC, but he has lost a bit too much time. He is an incredibly versatile rider, excelling over the hills and cobbles and also possessing a very good sprint. He showcased that sprint on Stage 5, overtaking Gilbert into the finish, and he can hang on to the front group then he will be very hard to beat on the flat finish. He hasn't proven his ability to go with the best on the steep climbs, but he was good in Clasica San Sebastian taking 19th, only 24 seconds down from the winner. He also lacks experience, and will probably be required to work for Wellens, so I'm discounting his chances here.
The Verdict
It will be a tough thing to for the top teams to keep it all together, and I think that the racing will lend itself towards an attack from an unmarked rider going for the win. I'll back in Marco Marcato for the win here, but obviously there are plenty of riders that could also do well.
It will be a tough thing to for the top teams to keep it all together, and I think that the racing will lend itself towards an attack from an unmarked rider going for the win. I'll back in Marco Marcato for the win here, but obviously there are plenty of riders that could also do well.