It's the mini-Amstel Gold stage here, with many of the climbs featuring in the Limburg classic race. The finish is changed from the famous Cauberg, which will shake up the racing formula. It could be a reduced bunch sprint or an attack from distance, but it will almost certainly be interesting.
The Course
This stage has... wait for it, 27 climbs in total. Most are short and not overly hard, but it does create a very tough race, where positioning is of crucial importance as the peleton heads up and down the winding roads of the Limburg region of the Netherlands. The finishing circuit will be where the main action for the race should kick off, with the circuit including, in order; the Windraak (700m, 4.5%), the Kollenberg (400m, 5%), the Watersley (300m, 6.5%), the Sittarderweg (800m, 4%) and the Stammen (350m, 8%). That circuit is done twice and the Windraak gets another go before the finish in Sittard, which summits 4.5 km from the finish.
The weather looks like it might turn nasty tomorrow, with the possibility of thunderstorms facing the riders in the Limburg region. Not sure who that favours, one of the general theories on why Spilak doesn't do so well in the summer is that he doesn't deal with the heat so well, so maybe that will suit him.
This stage has... wait for it, 27 climbs in total. Most are short and not overly hard, but it does create a very tough race, where positioning is of crucial importance as the peleton heads up and down the winding roads of the Limburg region of the Netherlands. The finishing circuit will be where the main action for the race should kick off, with the circuit including, in order; the Windraak (700m, 4.5%), the Kollenberg (400m, 5%), the Watersley (300m, 6.5%), the Sittarderweg (800m, 4%) and the Stammen (350m, 8%). That circuit is done twice and the Windraak gets another go before the finish in Sittard, which summits 4.5 km from the finish.
The weather looks like it might turn nasty tomorrow, with the possibility of thunderstorms facing the riders in the Limburg region. Not sure who that favours, one of the general theories on why Spilak doesn't do so well in the summer is that he doesn't deal with the heat so well, so maybe that will suit him.
The Tactics
The climbs aren't really hard enough to create a big difference between the favourites, and it will have to be a really poor weather day for it to be a very selective day for GC. BMC seem to have the strongest team here, and also have the biggest numbers of contenders after a great set of results after the TT. Greg Van Avermaet, Manuel Quinziato and Phillipe Gilbert did a very good job in the TT, and they will be looking to consolidate their advantage here.
BMC will be wary of the sprinting types still presence in the GC fight, and if Fabio Felline and Julien Alaphillipe in the final bunch then they may look to attack to try and isolate the faster men.
The climbs on this stage aren't superbly hard, and it may be that quite a key of the domestiques survive the climbs into the finale. If that is the case the race should be kept together for a sprint, albeit a reduced one.
If the race is hard however, it will dispatch most of the domestiques, and the race will be in the hands of the favourites, which will allow the most attacking riders a chance to get clear, without the threat of getting chased down by opposing teams.
It seems unlikely that this will come down to anything other than a small group sprint, and there are quite a few contenders who that suits, so the main teams should have enough interest to keep it all together for that to happen.
The climbs aren't really hard enough to create a big difference between the favourites, and it will have to be a really poor weather day for it to be a very selective day for GC. BMC seem to have the strongest team here, and also have the biggest numbers of contenders after a great set of results after the TT. Greg Van Avermaet, Manuel Quinziato and Phillipe Gilbert did a very good job in the TT, and they will be looking to consolidate their advantage here.
BMC will be wary of the sprinting types still presence in the GC fight, and if Fabio Felline and Julien Alaphillipe in the final bunch then they may look to attack to try and isolate the faster men.
The climbs on this stage aren't superbly hard, and it may be that quite a key of the domestiques survive the climbs into the finale. If that is the case the race should be kept together for a sprint, albeit a reduced one.
If the race is hard however, it will dispatch most of the domestiques, and the race will be in the hands of the favourites, which will allow the most attacking riders a chance to get clear, without the threat of getting chased down by opposing teams.
It seems unlikely that this will come down to anything other than a small group sprint, and there are quite a few contenders who that suits, so the main teams should have enough interest to keep it all together for that to happen.
The Contenders
Julien Alaphillipe was the runner-up in both the Fleche Wallonne (Fleche) and Liege-Bastogne Liege (LBL), finishing second on both occasions to Valverde, who happily for the Frenchman, isn't here. Alaphillipe has very similar characteristics to his Spanish rival, combining very good punchy climbing skills with a good sprint. He didn't get a chance to race for the win at Amstel Gold, as he was working for eventual winner Kwiatkowski, but he did finish 7th after doing the leadout for the world champion. He looks to be faster than any of his major rivals here, but he doesn't have the experience of some of his competitors here, so he may be beaten in a battle of tactics.
Phillipe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet have very similar characteristics over this type of terrain, and possess a similar sprint finish. I think that conventional wisdom is that Van Avermaet is faster, as we saw Gilbert leading him out in the World Champs last season. It is worth noting that Gilbert did win the bunch sprint for 2nd at Clasica San Sebastian (CSS) just a few weeks ago, beating Valverde, so maybe he will get the nod if he is feeling good. Both are strong candidates for the win here, and they have a strong team at their disposal to keep the race together for them. Then again, one may go on the attack, whilst the other sits and waits for the sprint, so it will be interesting to see how the team works together here. Quinziato is also right up there on GC, and he could be used as a foil to advance the prospects of his two leaders by going on the attack.
Niki Terpstra is significantly slower in a sprint than his French teammate Alaphillipe, but that could work in his favour if he makes a late attack, as other teams won't be too keen to drag the fast Frenchman to the line. If Terpstra can take advantage of that, he won't need much of a gap to make his opposition pay, as he is a very strong rider in that circumstance, notably winning Paris-Roubaix in a very similar move. He suffered a puncture in the TT, and he is over a minute down already on GC, so he may be allowed quite a bit of licence in making an attack, and could bounce back with a win.
Tom Boonen is probably the most likely of the proper sprinters to survive to the finish, and if he can do so, he will be the clear favourite for the win. I'm not sure he quite has the form yet, giving that he is building for the World Champs, but he already has a stage win, and if the race is raced conservatively, then he could well be in the frame for a second podium appearance.
Fabio Felline is a fine climber/sprinter, who has surprisingly never been able to make much of an impact on the classics in the past. Maybe that is due to the long distance, or perhaps just bad luck, but he should be a lot more suited to the shorter course here. The flatter finish also plays into his hands, as he can't quite climb with the best at this point of career, and will want to save his legs for the sprint. He will suffer from a lack of team support however, and it is possible that if he is present, other teams will prefer to win it from a late move, rather than backing their fast men in against the Italian allrounder. He did a decent TT by his standards yesterday, but I suspect that he is a bit under his peak form, as on top form he would have finished a lot higher, and beaten the likes of Van Avermaet and Gilbert.
A couple of sprinters who may also make it to the finish are Jean-Pierre Drucker and Magnus Cort Nielsen who have proven in the past that they can handle the hilly terrain. Drucker is more at home in the cobbled races, whilst Cort prefers his hilly days to be 3-4 climbs rather than 27, but they could hold onto the bunch if the stage isn't too selective, and then have a shot at a stage win.
Julien Alaphillipe was the runner-up in both the Fleche Wallonne (Fleche) and Liege-Bastogne Liege (LBL), finishing second on both occasions to Valverde, who happily for the Frenchman, isn't here. Alaphillipe has very similar characteristics to his Spanish rival, combining very good punchy climbing skills with a good sprint. He didn't get a chance to race for the win at Amstel Gold, as he was working for eventual winner Kwiatkowski, but he did finish 7th after doing the leadout for the world champion. He looks to be faster than any of his major rivals here, but he doesn't have the experience of some of his competitors here, so he may be beaten in a battle of tactics.
Phillipe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet have very similar characteristics over this type of terrain, and possess a similar sprint finish. I think that conventional wisdom is that Van Avermaet is faster, as we saw Gilbert leading him out in the World Champs last season. It is worth noting that Gilbert did win the bunch sprint for 2nd at Clasica San Sebastian (CSS) just a few weeks ago, beating Valverde, so maybe he will get the nod if he is feeling good. Both are strong candidates for the win here, and they have a strong team at their disposal to keep the race together for them. Then again, one may go on the attack, whilst the other sits and waits for the sprint, so it will be interesting to see how the team works together here. Quinziato is also right up there on GC, and he could be used as a foil to advance the prospects of his two leaders by going on the attack.
Niki Terpstra is significantly slower in a sprint than his French teammate Alaphillipe, but that could work in his favour if he makes a late attack, as other teams won't be too keen to drag the fast Frenchman to the line. If Terpstra can take advantage of that, he won't need much of a gap to make his opposition pay, as he is a very strong rider in that circumstance, notably winning Paris-Roubaix in a very similar move. He suffered a puncture in the TT, and he is over a minute down already on GC, so he may be allowed quite a bit of licence in making an attack, and could bounce back with a win.
Tom Boonen is probably the most likely of the proper sprinters to survive to the finish, and if he can do so, he will be the clear favourite for the win. I'm not sure he quite has the form yet, giving that he is building for the World Champs, but he already has a stage win, and if the race is raced conservatively, then he could well be in the frame for a second podium appearance.
Fabio Felline is a fine climber/sprinter, who has surprisingly never been able to make much of an impact on the classics in the past. Maybe that is due to the long distance, or perhaps just bad luck, but he should be a lot more suited to the shorter course here. The flatter finish also plays into his hands, as he can't quite climb with the best at this point of career, and will want to save his legs for the sprint. He will suffer from a lack of team support however, and it is possible that if he is present, other teams will prefer to win it from a late move, rather than backing their fast men in against the Italian allrounder. He did a decent TT by his standards yesterday, but I suspect that he is a bit under his peak form, as on top form he would have finished a lot higher, and beaten the likes of Van Avermaet and Gilbert.
A couple of sprinters who may also make it to the finish are Jean-Pierre Drucker and Magnus Cort Nielsen who have proven in the past that they can handle the hilly terrain. Drucker is more at home in the cobbled races, whilst Cort prefers his hilly days to be 3-4 climbs rather than 27, but they could hold onto the bunch if the stage isn't too selective, and then have a shot at a stage win.
The Verdict
I think that Niki Terpstra is more likely to be tasked towards supporting Alaphillipe than previous, which will mean that he and BMC will be pretty keen to see the race end in a sprint. It will be an interesting sprint from there, but Alaphillipe has proven that he is only able to be beaten by the best after a hard stage, and he should be able to win here.
I think that Niki Terpstra is more likely to be tasked towards supporting Alaphillipe than previous, which will mean that he and BMC will be pretty keen to see the race end in a sprint. It will be an interesting sprint from there, but Alaphillipe has proven that he is only able to be beaten by the best after a hard stage, and he should be able to win here.