The short time trial will kick off the battle for the GC, and whilst it will hardly be the final word, it will definitely shape the race to come. Plenty of guys will effectively drop out of the fight for the top step of the podium with bad results here. There's also going to be an interesting fight for the stage win, with a number of very good time triallists here.
The Course
A flat, semi-technical route for the riders here, with a slight rise into the finish, which won't make it so much for climbers, as it will make it important to judge effort correctly. The length of the course will mean that the specialists will find it harder to create big gaps, and the corners at a fairly regular intervals will interrupt the momentum of the purists, who ideally want to just want to sit at one level of intensity throughout.
It will be pretty warm weather, but highs of 29 Celsius won't advantage any particular riders I would have thought.
A flat, semi-technical route for the riders here, with a slight rise into the finish, which won't make it so much for climbers, as it will make it important to judge effort correctly. The length of the course will mean that the specialists will find it harder to create big gaps, and the corners at a fairly regular intervals will interrupt the momentum of the purists, who ideally want to just want to sit at one level of intensity throughout.
It will be pretty warm weather, but highs of 29 Celsius won't advantage any particular riders I would have thought.
The Contenders
Adriano Malori has had a pretty poor season for a time triallist of his ability. He did win the Tirreno prologue and was then only a second behind Cancellara in the TT in the same race. His other wins came in San Luis, Sarthe and the Italian nationals, and the quality of the opponents was lacking. In the past, he has proved that he is almost the equal of the top time triallists in the world. He does lose a bit over the longer distances, but in this sort of shorter distance, he is perfectly suited. Which was why his 8th in the short TT on the first stage of the Tour de France was so disappointing, when he should have been challenging for the win he was 29 seconds back. His form has been a bit off for a while now actually, and he hasn't had any racing since the Tour, and has been hanging around the back of the peleton so far in this Eneco Tour.
Matthias Brandle doesn't quite have the pedigree of Malori, but he has been in better form recently, beating the Italian by six seconds in the Tour de France, and finishing ahead of him in the Tour de Suisse prologue. He also had a good win over Rohan Dennis in the Baloise Belgium Tour, which looks even better after Dennis' win in the Tour. Again, he's a lot better over the shorter TTs and he will be well suited here. His form is a bit up in the air, as he hasn't raced since the Tour, but he's been keeping himself safe at the front of the peleton as he's hoping to do a decent GC.
Simon Spilak came into this race with ambitions for GC and he will have do a very good TT to get a decent buffer on the classics specialists. He has built his career on winning week long stage races with TTs in them, so there's very little reason to suspect that the Russian won't be able to do a good job here. He hasn't actually won any TTs this year, but his 2nd in Romandie was behind Tony Martin and his 2nd in Suisse was behind Dumoulin, both of which are elite riders against the clock. He hasn't raced since Tour de Suisse, but if he's coming here with good enough form to be looking for the win he should be in pretty good form. It is worth noting that Spilak has the odd habit of going missing in the second half of the season, so if that mystery strikes again, he won't do too well, but he appears to have taken a big step up this year, so he should do well.
Jos Van Emden did a top time trial in the Tour de France over a very similar course, where he was fifth, and finished ahead of Brandle and Malori. He has a few other decent performances in TTs this season, finishing behind Sagan for 2nd in California. That Tour de France performance was a big surprise however, so he'll have to back that up here, which may be hard if it was just a flash in the pan.
Niki Terpstra isn't renowned as a time triallist, but he has very good performances over shorter courses when he is in good form. In particular he does very well in the Qatar TT annually, where he has started his GC victories with top performances in the TTs, this year he beat Cancellara, Brandle and Wiggins to win the stage and the GC. He also did a decent prologue in Tirreno, finishing 8 seconds back, but in 13th position. He's not really in the class of the time triallists here, but if they're not in top form a red-hot Terpstra will nab it from them.
For an outsider, look at Michael Hepburn who occasionally pulls out a top-tier performance in certain TTs. He is pretty inconsistent, but he does better in the shorter distance tests, and if he's on form, he could surprise here.
Adriano Malori has had a pretty poor season for a time triallist of his ability. He did win the Tirreno prologue and was then only a second behind Cancellara in the TT in the same race. His other wins came in San Luis, Sarthe and the Italian nationals, and the quality of the opponents was lacking. In the past, he has proved that he is almost the equal of the top time triallists in the world. He does lose a bit over the longer distances, but in this sort of shorter distance, he is perfectly suited. Which was why his 8th in the short TT on the first stage of the Tour de France was so disappointing, when he should have been challenging for the win he was 29 seconds back. His form has been a bit off for a while now actually, and he hasn't had any racing since the Tour, and has been hanging around the back of the peleton so far in this Eneco Tour.
Matthias Brandle doesn't quite have the pedigree of Malori, but he has been in better form recently, beating the Italian by six seconds in the Tour de France, and finishing ahead of him in the Tour de Suisse prologue. He also had a good win over Rohan Dennis in the Baloise Belgium Tour, which looks even better after Dennis' win in the Tour. Again, he's a lot better over the shorter TTs and he will be well suited here. His form is a bit up in the air, as he hasn't raced since the Tour, but he's been keeping himself safe at the front of the peleton as he's hoping to do a decent GC.
Simon Spilak came into this race with ambitions for GC and he will have do a very good TT to get a decent buffer on the classics specialists. He has built his career on winning week long stage races with TTs in them, so there's very little reason to suspect that the Russian won't be able to do a good job here. He hasn't actually won any TTs this year, but his 2nd in Romandie was behind Tony Martin and his 2nd in Suisse was behind Dumoulin, both of which are elite riders against the clock. He hasn't raced since Tour de Suisse, but if he's coming here with good enough form to be looking for the win he should be in pretty good form. It is worth noting that Spilak has the odd habit of going missing in the second half of the season, so if that mystery strikes again, he won't do too well, but he appears to have taken a big step up this year, so he should do well.
Jos Van Emden did a top time trial in the Tour de France over a very similar course, where he was fifth, and finished ahead of Brandle and Malori. He has a few other decent performances in TTs this season, finishing behind Sagan for 2nd in California. That Tour de France performance was a big surprise however, so he'll have to back that up here, which may be hard if it was just a flash in the pan.
Niki Terpstra isn't renowned as a time triallist, but he has very good performances over shorter courses when he is in good form. In particular he does very well in the Qatar TT annually, where he has started his GC victories with top performances in the TTs, this year he beat Cancellara, Brandle and Wiggins to win the stage and the GC. He also did a decent prologue in Tirreno, finishing 8 seconds back, but in 13th position. He's not really in the class of the time triallists here, but if they're not in top form a red-hot Terpstra will nab it from them.
For an outsider, look at Michael Hepburn who occasionally pulls out a top-tier performance in certain TTs. He is pretty inconsistent, but he does better in the shorter distance tests, and if he's on form, he could surprise here.
The Verdict
I fancy Matthias Brandle to win this one. With the form being a bit up in the air for most of the riders, Brandle must be feeling pretty good to be coming in and targeting the GC. He is a really classy rider, and looks like he'll be a star in the future, so hopefully he can take his first World Tour win here.
I fancy Matthias Brandle to win this one. With the form being a bit up in the air for most of the riders, Brandle must be feeling pretty good to be coming in and targeting the GC. He is a really classy rider, and looks like he'll be a star in the future, so hopefully he can take his first World Tour win here.