One of my favourite stage races of the year, the Eneco Tour is open to anyone to ride for the win, but particularly those that are strong all-around, and aren't afraid to go on the attack. Tim Wellens showed that last year, as he set off on a bold attack to take a stage win and the leader's jersey, and was able to hold onto it with a strong performance from his team in the final stages. He will be back to defend his title, but he won't be the favourite, as a host of strong riders have come ready to take what is gradually becoming an increasingly more prestigious event. It is some of the most exciting racing on the cycling calendar, with a variety of stage types meaning there isn't the same sort of status quo being established, that is common in other stage races.
The Course
The first three stages are flat, like most of Holland is, and the main danger for the GC contenders will be the wind, with the most likely outcome of each day to be a bunch sprint. Stages 2 and 3 look to be the windiest, whilst Stage 1 has only light-moderate winds forecast at the moment, but weather forecasts are obviously subject to change. Stage 4 is a 14 kilometre time trial, which will likely set the GC pecking order, but is short enough that riders will be able to recover even if they aren't the strongest against the clock. Stage 5, 6 and 7 are shorter versions of the spring classics, with Stage 5 going over much of Amstel Gold's route, including famous climbs like the Eyserbosweg and the Gulperberg. Stage 6 is the mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege, with the Cote Saint-Roche, which only comes at the end of the normal Liege course, featuring three times in the back of the race here. Stage 7 is the final stage and has the appellation of being the mini-Flanders, though it probably bears more resemblance to other Flandrian classics these days. It includes the much loved Muur van Geraardsbergen, which was cut from Flanders some years ago, so the organisers decided to capitalise on that by including it three times on the finishing circuit to conclude the Eneco Tour in style.
The first three stages are flat, like most of Holland is, and the main danger for the GC contenders will be the wind, with the most likely outcome of each day to be a bunch sprint. Stages 2 and 3 look to be the windiest, whilst Stage 1 has only light-moderate winds forecast at the moment, but weather forecasts are obviously subject to change. Stage 4 is a 14 kilometre time trial, which will likely set the GC pecking order, but is short enough that riders will be able to recover even if they aren't the strongest against the clock. Stage 5, 6 and 7 are shorter versions of the spring classics, with Stage 5 going over much of Amstel Gold's route, including famous climbs like the Eyserbosweg and the Gulperberg. Stage 6 is the mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege, with the Cote Saint-Roche, which only comes at the end of the normal Liege course, featuring three times in the back of the race here. Stage 7 is the final stage and has the appellation of being the mini-Flanders, though it probably bears more resemblance to other Flandrian classics these days. It includes the much loved Muur van Geraardsbergen, which was cut from Flanders some years ago, so the organisers decided to capitalise on that by including it three times on the finishing circuit to conclude the Eneco Tour in style.
The Tactics
With the race most likely to come down to the series of classics stages, that leaves the race wide open for attackers, and teams that have strength in numbers. With the attritional nature of the courses, riders will gradually be shelled off the back, leaving their team leaders more and more isolated, meaning that they will have to take matters into their own hands if another team makes an attack. We have seen in the past that bold attacks where the rider in question has good back up supporting him have paid big dividends, with Wellens win last year exploiting the isolation of the main GC contenders in Boom, Dumoulin and Van Avermaet to attack from quite a ways out. Boom and Gilbert weren't willing to do all the work by themselves, as a number of other strong riders, including Lotto's man Jelle Vanendert would have benefited.
I would expect a similar scenario here, as there isn't really one team strong enough to dominate the stages' varied challenges, and keep the riders all together, so it should be a tense tactical battle that sees move and countermove from the main contenders and their teams.
With the race most likely to come down to the series of classics stages, that leaves the race wide open for attackers, and teams that have strength in numbers. With the attritional nature of the courses, riders will gradually be shelled off the back, leaving their team leaders more and more isolated, meaning that they will have to take matters into their own hands if another team makes an attack. We have seen in the past that bold attacks where the rider in question has good back up supporting him have paid big dividends, with Wellens win last year exploiting the isolation of the main GC contenders in Boom, Dumoulin and Van Avermaet to attack from quite a ways out. Boom and Gilbert weren't willing to do all the work by themselves, as a number of other strong riders, including Lotto's man Jelle Vanendert would have benefited.
I would expect a similar scenario here, as there isn't really one team strong enough to dominate the stages' varied challenges, and keep the riders all together, so it should be a tense tactical battle that sees move and countermove from the main contenders and their teams.
The Contenders
The winner of the race here will be a strong all-rounder, who can cope with both the cobbled and Ardennes classics and do a decent time trial. The TT is too short for the real specialists to make a huge difference, but it will be important to keep within touch. It is difficult to say which of the other stages will be the most decisive, it will most likely come down to a combination of weather and how each stage is raced. As the team support will be crucial, I'll examine the contenders team by team.
Lotto-Soudal bring back defending champion Tim Wellens with a decent team support including fellow GC contenders Jurgen Roelandts and Tiesj Benoot. Wellens is their best card to play here, he is a superb prospect who took the other contenders by surprise with a long range attack last year, but he won't get the same amount of freedom this time around. He is a strong Ardennes classics rider, and does a decent TT, and he held on well enough in the cobbled stage last year to win the race. He has been in pretty bad form this year, and was 2 minutes off the pace in Clasica San Sebastian (CSS). Tiesj Benoot is another young rider, who has been a great revelation this season, taking 4th in Ronde Van Vlaanderen (RVV), and looking good in other races over hilly terrain. He hasn't got as much experience in the Ardennes classics, but he looks the goods, and he wasn't far off the pace in CSS. The main problem for Benoot will be the time trial, as he hasn't shown that he can perform against the clock yet in his short career. Jurgen Roelandts is another strong all-rounder that has the tools to do well here, he is a consistent top 10 presence in all types of classics, and he should be able to limit the damage in the TT. He was playing his chances down in a pre race interview, but at very least he will be a very good domestique for his other leaders.
Niki Terpstra and Julien Alaphillipe lead the line for Etixx-Quickstep, and they should form a formidable duo on this course. Terpstra in particular looks strong, in-form and well-suited to this course. He is coming off a win in the Tour of Wallonie, over similar terrain to the Ardennes classics stages and he will be one of the strongest on the cobbled stage and the TT. Despite his win in Wallonie, he remains most vulnerable on the Ardennes style stages, and he will have to battle to avoid losing too much time. If he can though, he will be the big favourite for the win. Julien Alaphillipe is a talent who has broken through this season, having taken 2nd at both Liege and Fleche Wallonne. He also took 2nd overall at the Tour of California, and looks like he'll be a big name for years to come. He can do a very good TT, and he should be one of the strongest on the Ardennes style classics, but the big unknown for him will be the cobbled stage, as he hasn't done much racing over the hellingen. The two of them should be a potent duo and it wouldn't surprise if one of them won.
BMC also bring a strong team to this race, with multiple threats in Phillipe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet, and even decent outsiders like Manuel Quinziato and Jean-Pierre Drucker. Van Avermaet in particular looks to be well suited here, as he is an incredibly versatile rider, who can be reliably expected to contend in a wide variety of races. He used to be a pretty average time triallist, but he has improved that this season, and he won't lose much time there. He is in very good form at the moment, racing very well in CSS, before being taken out dramatically by a race motorcycle, and presuming that he wasn't badly injured there he should be in very good condition here. He stands out as the only rider who could realistically win all of the three classics style stages, and with his improved time trialling he will be very hard to beat. Phillipe Gilbert may be on domestique duty in that case, but he is a perennial contender in this sort of race. He, like his teammate is a very versatile rider, who can contend in all the classics style stages, and whilst time-trialling isn't a strength of his, he's not awful, and he won't lose a huge amount of time. He crashed in the Tour de Suisse, breaking a bone in his wrist, but he made a decent comeback in the Tour of Wallonie, and then looked very good in CSS, where he took 2nd. He might not quite have the ability over the cobbles that he does in the Ardennes style classics, but he has won cobbled races before, so I doubt that he'll be far off the pace here. It's very hard to split he and Van Avermaet, and it will probably come down to race tactics to who does better. They have a very strong team at their disposal as well, so will be very hard to beat.
Lars Boom is always up there in the Eneco Tour, and it seems to be a race that he really enjoys. He is a versatile classics rider, but he is probably best suited to the cobbled stage here. He is also used to be a top time triallist over the shorter distances, but he hasn't done as well this year against the clock. He went out of the Tour de France with illness, but he made a good return with a stage win in Denmark, and he is always in good form for this race, so he should be expected to be in good form. He probably isn't the strongest over the hilly stages, and with his drop off in TT skills he doesn't look like the top rider here. Andriy Grivko is here as well, and has a good history in the Eneco Tour, taking 4th and 3rd in the last two editions of the race. He is a very good time triallist, and whilst he doesn't normally excel in the classics, he is a very strong rider, and he is probably better suited to the shorter nature of the stages in the race, as opposed to the longer distance of the classics races. He's not a very big name in the sport, and could be given some freedom as a result, particularly if the other favourites get stuck in a tactical stalemate. Astana have a decent team to support their two leaders, but I think that there are better opportunities for others to win overall here.
Wanty-Groupe Gobert have brought an interesting team, with Bjorn Leukemans, Marco Marcato and Enrico Gasparotto all potential contenders. To be honest, I think Leukemans is a bit past it at this stage of his career, but Marco Marcato is a super consistent rider, who whilst he doesn't often win, is often in the top 10 or so on a wide variety of stages. Unfortunately he is a poor time triallist, and that alone will probably push him out of contention for the win, but he could still manage a good result. Enrico Gasparotto is an Ardennes classics specialist, but he only managed a best of 8th in Amstel this year and hasn't been in great form recently.
Simon Geschke is a coming off a good Tour de France, where he won a stage, and he was active in other breakaways as well. He is a consistent rider in the classics, but unfortunately he crashed early in the season and missed most of the Ardennes races, so instead he did both the Giro and the Tour. He may be a bit burnt out as a result, but if he's in good form, then there's no reason that he shouldn't do well here.
Matthias Brandle is a very good time triallist, and he'll be a decent chance to win that stage, and maybe even have a decent cushion on the nearest contender. He isn't bad on the hillier races either, he won a stage like that in the Tour of Oman, but he will be hanging on rather than making the race. He probably doesn't have the team to protect him in the manner necessary to convert a TT advantage into a GC victory, especially with the quality of the other contenders. This probably goes for Wilco Kelderman and Simon Spilak as well, who will all do strong TTs and then be trying to hang on in the remaining stages. Their presence is a bit perplexing, as I would have thought that they would have been better suited to the Tour of Poland, as they aren't noted classics specialists, and the time trialling was more important in the Polish race.
Diego Ulissi was a rider who rode the Tour of Poland, finishing 6th overall and taking two 2nds on stages as well. It was his first race back after a fair rest, so he performed pretty well in that case, so he may bring better form here. At his best, he is a very strong time triallist and a top Ardennes rider, so shouldn't be far off here. He isn't experienced over the cobbles which may hold him back, as will his team, which isn't the strongest.
Fabio Felline has taken a step up this season, sprinting to a few wins, and showcasing his all-round abilities. He's a strong time triallist, and with his skills in climbing and sprinting, he should be a good classics rider in the Ardennes. He hasn't quite put it all together yet, and it may be that he lacks the endurance to really contend in the longer classics races. He should be better suited in the shorter stage race format, and he may pull off a surprise if he can get a bit of a cushion in the TT.
The winner of the race here will be a strong all-rounder, who can cope with both the cobbled and Ardennes classics and do a decent time trial. The TT is too short for the real specialists to make a huge difference, but it will be important to keep within touch. It is difficult to say which of the other stages will be the most decisive, it will most likely come down to a combination of weather and how each stage is raced. As the team support will be crucial, I'll examine the contenders team by team.
Lotto-Soudal bring back defending champion Tim Wellens with a decent team support including fellow GC contenders Jurgen Roelandts and Tiesj Benoot. Wellens is their best card to play here, he is a superb prospect who took the other contenders by surprise with a long range attack last year, but he won't get the same amount of freedom this time around. He is a strong Ardennes classics rider, and does a decent TT, and he held on well enough in the cobbled stage last year to win the race. He has been in pretty bad form this year, and was 2 minutes off the pace in Clasica San Sebastian (CSS). Tiesj Benoot is another young rider, who has been a great revelation this season, taking 4th in Ronde Van Vlaanderen (RVV), and looking good in other races over hilly terrain. He hasn't got as much experience in the Ardennes classics, but he looks the goods, and he wasn't far off the pace in CSS. The main problem for Benoot will be the time trial, as he hasn't shown that he can perform against the clock yet in his short career. Jurgen Roelandts is another strong all-rounder that has the tools to do well here, he is a consistent top 10 presence in all types of classics, and he should be able to limit the damage in the TT. He was playing his chances down in a pre race interview, but at very least he will be a very good domestique for his other leaders.
Niki Terpstra and Julien Alaphillipe lead the line for Etixx-Quickstep, and they should form a formidable duo on this course. Terpstra in particular looks strong, in-form and well-suited to this course. He is coming off a win in the Tour of Wallonie, over similar terrain to the Ardennes classics stages and he will be one of the strongest on the cobbled stage and the TT. Despite his win in Wallonie, he remains most vulnerable on the Ardennes style stages, and he will have to battle to avoid losing too much time. If he can though, he will be the big favourite for the win. Julien Alaphillipe is a talent who has broken through this season, having taken 2nd at both Liege and Fleche Wallonne. He also took 2nd overall at the Tour of California, and looks like he'll be a big name for years to come. He can do a very good TT, and he should be one of the strongest on the Ardennes style classics, but the big unknown for him will be the cobbled stage, as he hasn't done much racing over the hellingen. The two of them should be a potent duo and it wouldn't surprise if one of them won.
BMC also bring a strong team to this race, with multiple threats in Phillipe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet, and even decent outsiders like Manuel Quinziato and Jean-Pierre Drucker. Van Avermaet in particular looks to be well suited here, as he is an incredibly versatile rider, who can be reliably expected to contend in a wide variety of races. He used to be a pretty average time triallist, but he has improved that this season, and he won't lose much time there. He is in very good form at the moment, racing very well in CSS, before being taken out dramatically by a race motorcycle, and presuming that he wasn't badly injured there he should be in very good condition here. He stands out as the only rider who could realistically win all of the three classics style stages, and with his improved time trialling he will be very hard to beat. Phillipe Gilbert may be on domestique duty in that case, but he is a perennial contender in this sort of race. He, like his teammate is a very versatile rider, who can contend in all the classics style stages, and whilst time-trialling isn't a strength of his, he's not awful, and he won't lose a huge amount of time. He crashed in the Tour de Suisse, breaking a bone in his wrist, but he made a decent comeback in the Tour of Wallonie, and then looked very good in CSS, where he took 2nd. He might not quite have the ability over the cobbles that he does in the Ardennes style classics, but he has won cobbled races before, so I doubt that he'll be far off the pace here. It's very hard to split he and Van Avermaet, and it will probably come down to race tactics to who does better. They have a very strong team at their disposal as well, so will be very hard to beat.
Lars Boom is always up there in the Eneco Tour, and it seems to be a race that he really enjoys. He is a versatile classics rider, but he is probably best suited to the cobbled stage here. He is also used to be a top time triallist over the shorter distances, but he hasn't done as well this year against the clock. He went out of the Tour de France with illness, but he made a good return with a stage win in Denmark, and he is always in good form for this race, so he should be expected to be in good form. He probably isn't the strongest over the hilly stages, and with his drop off in TT skills he doesn't look like the top rider here. Andriy Grivko is here as well, and has a good history in the Eneco Tour, taking 4th and 3rd in the last two editions of the race. He is a very good time triallist, and whilst he doesn't normally excel in the classics, he is a very strong rider, and he is probably better suited to the shorter nature of the stages in the race, as opposed to the longer distance of the classics races. He's not a very big name in the sport, and could be given some freedom as a result, particularly if the other favourites get stuck in a tactical stalemate. Astana have a decent team to support their two leaders, but I think that there are better opportunities for others to win overall here.
Wanty-Groupe Gobert have brought an interesting team, with Bjorn Leukemans, Marco Marcato and Enrico Gasparotto all potential contenders. To be honest, I think Leukemans is a bit past it at this stage of his career, but Marco Marcato is a super consistent rider, who whilst he doesn't often win, is often in the top 10 or so on a wide variety of stages. Unfortunately he is a poor time triallist, and that alone will probably push him out of contention for the win, but he could still manage a good result. Enrico Gasparotto is an Ardennes classics specialist, but he only managed a best of 8th in Amstel this year and hasn't been in great form recently.
Simon Geschke is a coming off a good Tour de France, where he won a stage, and he was active in other breakaways as well. He is a consistent rider in the classics, but unfortunately he crashed early in the season and missed most of the Ardennes races, so instead he did both the Giro and the Tour. He may be a bit burnt out as a result, but if he's in good form, then there's no reason that he shouldn't do well here.
Matthias Brandle is a very good time triallist, and he'll be a decent chance to win that stage, and maybe even have a decent cushion on the nearest contender. He isn't bad on the hillier races either, he won a stage like that in the Tour of Oman, but he will be hanging on rather than making the race. He probably doesn't have the team to protect him in the manner necessary to convert a TT advantage into a GC victory, especially with the quality of the other contenders. This probably goes for Wilco Kelderman and Simon Spilak as well, who will all do strong TTs and then be trying to hang on in the remaining stages. Their presence is a bit perplexing, as I would have thought that they would have been better suited to the Tour of Poland, as they aren't noted classics specialists, and the time trialling was more important in the Polish race.
Diego Ulissi was a rider who rode the Tour of Poland, finishing 6th overall and taking two 2nds on stages as well. It was his first race back after a fair rest, so he performed pretty well in that case, so he may bring better form here. At his best, he is a very strong time triallist and a top Ardennes rider, so shouldn't be far off here. He isn't experienced over the cobbles which may hold him back, as will his team, which isn't the strongest.
Fabio Felline has taken a step up this season, sprinting to a few wins, and showcasing his all-round abilities. He's a strong time triallist, and with his skills in climbing and sprinting, he should be a good classics rider in the Ardennes. He hasn't quite put it all together yet, and it may be that he lacks the endurance to really contend in the longer classics races. He should be better suited in the shorter stage race format, and he may pull off a surprise if he can get a bit of a cushion in the TT.
The Verdict
I'll go with BMC to win this one, and my random number generator has led me to pick Phillipe Gilbert to win. He'll probably be the second rider for BMC, but he may be given a more attacking and risk-taking role as well, which could be the better way to win. He is also vastly experienced and has the hunger to win after not going to the Tour.
I'll go with BMC to win this one, and my random number generator has led me to pick Phillipe Gilbert to win. He'll probably be the second rider for BMC, but he may be given a more attacking and risk-taking role as well, which could be the better way to win. He is also vastly experienced and has the hunger to win after not going to the Tour.