The start of what many have unimaginatively dubbed "The Middle-Eastern season", the Dubai Tour will give the sprinters a chance to... sprint. Good for them. Last year's TT has been scrapped so this edition is all about whether a sprinter can gain enough bonus seconds and then hang on in the one uphill finish.
The Course:
Flat, Flat, Hills, Flat. The third stage has been ambitiously titled a medium mountains stage. Given that Marcel Kittel won that same stage last season, albeit with a different finish, I've renamed it hills. I doubt it will inconvenience anyone overly before they get to the last 3kms which slopes up steadily at 4% approx, before the last 200m which slopes up rudely for the first 100m at 8%, and the second 100m at 14%. That should be enough to shake all but puncheurs and climbers for the stage win, though a particularly determined strong man could conceivably stay in touch with the front group.
There wasn't much in the way of wind last year, and most of the race will be run in the shadows of Dubai's famously large buildings, which will also provide a fair bit of wind shelter. That changes once the peleton gets out to the desert, as they will in stages 2 and 3. As this is a relatively new race, it is hard to say if will develop into Tour of Qatar-like wind-assisted splits or be more benign with its windiness.
The Tactics:
Chase down the breaks, set your sprinter up for the win. I can't imagine a situation where the sprinters' teams give enough leeway to any break, or any late attack having the strength to beat the 8 or so teams that are going to be focusing on the sprint.
Of course, I'll put the wind caveat on that, a few teams like Astana and Trek are better geared than most others to exploit windy conditions, so they could throw the other teams into disarray with a bold move or two.
Movistar will also likely commit a rider or two a day to keeping the break under check, with the explosive Valverde no doubt licking his lips at the prospect of Stage 3's final ramp. Winning there will likely be decisive to winning the race overall, so he won't want to miss out on winning the GC because a break has escaped being captured.
The Contenders:
As mentioned above, I think the Stage 3 finish will be the decider for the GC, and so we'll see puncheurs and climbers high up the standings. A really tough sprinter might hang on, John Degenkolb, Ben Swift and Juan Jose Lobato fit this bill. Swift I don't see gaining any bonus seconds on the sprints, as he'll be working for Elia Viviani. Lobato proved himself in good form during the Tour Down Under, taking a win there, but I doubt he has the speed on a flat finish to beat the others here. Degenkolb on the other hand has great speed on the flat and a dogged style of climbing that allows him to hang in for longer than expected on a lot of climbs. He has a good leadout here, so should be able to get himself a few time bonuses. He will have to get more than 10 seconds to beat the winner of Stage 3, and then hope that there aren't any gaps opened up between him and that rider. I think that whilst this is unlikely, with gaps on this sort of gradient opened up very easily, it is nonetheless a possibility.
That leaves us with the ones who will be contending for the victory on Stage 3. Alejandro Valverde is the favourite of most bike races that he turns up to, and it is no different here. Maybe the final climb isn't long enough for it to be really a perfect stage for him, he is nonetheless the rider with the best finish that also climbs with the best. As always, his early-season form is excellent, as he proved last weekend, blowing away his competition in style in the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana. If he's feeling particularly belligerent, he could even attempt to take some bonus seconds on late sprint points in Stages 2 and 4, as most of the pure sprinters will be focused on the finish and wouldn't be particularly keen on fatiguing their legs.
Phillipe Gilbert always comes into calculations on a finish like this, a short uphill sprint is very much his bread and butter. He would ideally prefer it less steep, but there's little doubt that on form he would be favourite for this stage. Whether he is on form is the question however. He is traditionally not good this early, with his main objectives in the Ardennes still a way off, and rarely wins this early in the season.
Joaquin Rodriguez gets a mention here as well as a guy who has a good sprint in tough terrain, and indeed later in the season, he'd probably be the favourite over Valverde in this sort of finish, as he is known to relish the hellish gradients, and possesses a strong finishing burst. A bit early in the season for him however, he's not bad early normally, but victories don't come often, and whilst you'd expect a showing from him, a victory may be a bit much to expect this early.
Instead, it may be a chance for his teammate Sergei Chernetckii to shine. A young climber with a pretty good kick, who has good form early season (albeit in a limited career) and looks like he is developing into a good rider.
As a final joker, Lars Boom could be a winning candidate if the race gets split by crosswinds. He's one of the best in those situations and he is in pretty good form at the moment, as he showed in Tour Down Under, making strong showings in breakaways. He wouldn't be expected to win up a steep ramp in normal circumstances, but if the race breaks up in the wind, then he has the strength to grind his way up the finishing slope.
The Verdict:
The right form and right parcours seems to make it Alejandro Valverde's race to lose here. Whilst I've outlined the various other possibilities above, the probability is that Valverde simply wins. Sorry for being boring.
Flat, Flat, Hills, Flat. The third stage has been ambitiously titled a medium mountains stage. Given that Marcel Kittel won that same stage last season, albeit with a different finish, I've renamed it hills. I doubt it will inconvenience anyone overly before they get to the last 3kms which slopes up steadily at 4% approx, before the last 200m which slopes up rudely for the first 100m at 8%, and the second 100m at 14%. That should be enough to shake all but puncheurs and climbers for the stage win, though a particularly determined strong man could conceivably stay in touch with the front group.
There wasn't much in the way of wind last year, and most of the race will be run in the shadows of Dubai's famously large buildings, which will also provide a fair bit of wind shelter. That changes once the peleton gets out to the desert, as they will in stages 2 and 3. As this is a relatively new race, it is hard to say if will develop into Tour of Qatar-like wind-assisted splits or be more benign with its windiness.
The Tactics:
Chase down the breaks, set your sprinter up for the win. I can't imagine a situation where the sprinters' teams give enough leeway to any break, or any late attack having the strength to beat the 8 or so teams that are going to be focusing on the sprint.
Of course, I'll put the wind caveat on that, a few teams like Astana and Trek are better geared than most others to exploit windy conditions, so they could throw the other teams into disarray with a bold move or two.
Movistar will also likely commit a rider or two a day to keeping the break under check, with the explosive Valverde no doubt licking his lips at the prospect of Stage 3's final ramp. Winning there will likely be decisive to winning the race overall, so he won't want to miss out on winning the GC because a break has escaped being captured.
The Contenders:
As mentioned above, I think the Stage 3 finish will be the decider for the GC, and so we'll see puncheurs and climbers high up the standings. A really tough sprinter might hang on, John Degenkolb, Ben Swift and Juan Jose Lobato fit this bill. Swift I don't see gaining any bonus seconds on the sprints, as he'll be working for Elia Viviani. Lobato proved himself in good form during the Tour Down Under, taking a win there, but I doubt he has the speed on a flat finish to beat the others here. Degenkolb on the other hand has great speed on the flat and a dogged style of climbing that allows him to hang in for longer than expected on a lot of climbs. He has a good leadout here, so should be able to get himself a few time bonuses. He will have to get more than 10 seconds to beat the winner of Stage 3, and then hope that there aren't any gaps opened up between him and that rider. I think that whilst this is unlikely, with gaps on this sort of gradient opened up very easily, it is nonetheless a possibility.
That leaves us with the ones who will be contending for the victory on Stage 3. Alejandro Valverde is the favourite of most bike races that he turns up to, and it is no different here. Maybe the final climb isn't long enough for it to be really a perfect stage for him, he is nonetheless the rider with the best finish that also climbs with the best. As always, his early-season form is excellent, as he proved last weekend, blowing away his competition in style in the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana. If he's feeling particularly belligerent, he could even attempt to take some bonus seconds on late sprint points in Stages 2 and 4, as most of the pure sprinters will be focused on the finish and wouldn't be particularly keen on fatiguing their legs.
Phillipe Gilbert always comes into calculations on a finish like this, a short uphill sprint is very much his bread and butter. He would ideally prefer it less steep, but there's little doubt that on form he would be favourite for this stage. Whether he is on form is the question however. He is traditionally not good this early, with his main objectives in the Ardennes still a way off, and rarely wins this early in the season.
Joaquin Rodriguez gets a mention here as well as a guy who has a good sprint in tough terrain, and indeed later in the season, he'd probably be the favourite over Valverde in this sort of finish, as he is known to relish the hellish gradients, and possesses a strong finishing burst. A bit early in the season for him however, he's not bad early normally, but victories don't come often, and whilst you'd expect a showing from him, a victory may be a bit much to expect this early.
Instead, it may be a chance for his teammate Sergei Chernetckii to shine. A young climber with a pretty good kick, who has good form early season (albeit in a limited career) and looks like he is developing into a good rider.
As a final joker, Lars Boom could be a winning candidate if the race gets split by crosswinds. He's one of the best in those situations and he is in pretty good form at the moment, as he showed in Tour Down Under, making strong showings in breakaways. He wouldn't be expected to win up a steep ramp in normal circumstances, but if the race breaks up in the wind, then he has the strength to grind his way up the finishing slope.
The Verdict:
The right form and right parcours seems to make it Alejandro Valverde's race to lose here. Whilst I've outlined the various other possibilities above, the probability is that Valverde simply wins. Sorry for being boring.