Romain Bardet and Tejay Van Garderen were the stars of Stage 5, the former for his daredevil descent, and the latter for besting Tour de France favourite Chris Froome 1 v 1. Today's stage is quite different, the actual climbing isn't too hard, but there isn't much flat terrain at all during the day, with constantly rolling terrain between the categorised challenges. The race should be decided on the final uphill sprint to the finish, but it could well be a day for the breakaway, without any outstanding favourites present for the stage.
The Course
As stated above, it's not all about the categorised climbs, but they will form the basis for the main moves on the day. 20 kms in there is the Rampe du Motty (2.3 kms, 8.3%) and the Cote du Barrage du Sautet (2.2 kms, 4.4%) immediately after. A long run of rolling hills takes the riders into the foot of the next climb, the Col de la Croix-Haute (5.6 kms, 5.9%), the descent from which leads straight into the Col de Grimone (4.1 kms, 6.1%). There's a long, gradual descent into the Col du Rousset (13.8 kms, 5.4%), which is the only category 1 climb, and whilst long, it isn't overly hard at any point, and won't shed any of the favourites unless they are on a very bad day. The stage still has 50 kms to run from the summit of this climb, so it is unlikely to be the scene of any attacks, and the main riders will want to wait until the Villard de lans Cote 2000 (2.2 kms, 6.2%). The climb is quite irregular and the hardest section comes from 1 km to go and 500m which averages 8.6% and will probably be where the winner launches his move.
The weather will be warm during the day, but it is very likely that it will be a wet finish to the stage, which could make things dangerous as the riders charge into the base of the final climb.
As stated above, it's not all about the categorised climbs, but they will form the basis for the main moves on the day. 20 kms in there is the Rampe du Motty (2.3 kms, 8.3%) and the Cote du Barrage du Sautet (2.2 kms, 4.4%) immediately after. A long run of rolling hills takes the riders into the foot of the next climb, the Col de la Croix-Haute (5.6 kms, 5.9%), the descent from which leads straight into the Col de Grimone (4.1 kms, 6.1%). There's a long, gradual descent into the Col du Rousset (13.8 kms, 5.4%), which is the only category 1 climb, and whilst long, it isn't overly hard at any point, and won't shed any of the favourites unless they are on a very bad day. The stage still has 50 kms to run from the summit of this climb, so it is unlikely to be the scene of any attacks, and the main riders will want to wait until the Villard de lans Cote 2000 (2.2 kms, 6.2%). The climb is quite irregular and the hardest section comes from 1 km to go and 500m which averages 8.6% and will probably be where the winner launches his move.
The weather will be warm during the day, but it is very likely that it will be a wet finish to the stage, which could make things dangerous as the riders charge into the base of the final climb.
The Tactics
This could well be a day for the breakaway, there are plenty of good riders that are down a lot of time on the general classification and there will plenty of battling to get into the breakaway as there isn't really a strong stage winning favourite for this one. Valverde and Rodriguez would be natural favourites for this sort of finish, but both are down on form, so their teams probably won't chase too much. BMC can also afford to take this stage off after a few tough days for them, as long as they control who gets in the break.
There shouldn't be too much incentive for any team to set a high tempo the Col du Rousset, which is pretty easy and won't drop the main riders.
This could well be a day for the breakaway, there are plenty of good riders that are down a lot of time on the general classification and there will plenty of battling to get into the breakaway as there isn't really a strong stage winning favourite for this one. Valverde and Rodriguez would be natural favourites for this sort of finish, but both are down on form, so their teams probably won't chase too much. BMC can also afford to take this stage off after a few tough days for them, as long as they control who gets in the break.
There shouldn't be too much incentive for any team to set a high tempo the Col du Rousset, which is pretty easy and won't drop the main riders.
The Contenders
Joaquim Rodriquez has long been the master of winning when he gets into the final kilometre, and this stage would be right up his alley on top form. He doesn't appear to be a mile off that at present, only finishing 35 secs down on Van Garderen on today's finish, but in an interview after the race, the Director said that the acceleration is what Rodriguez is looking to build up in the training after the Dauphine, suggesting that he's not going to be at his explosive best here.
Alejandro Valverde cracked pretty early on the climb into Pra Loup, but he probably knew where his legs were at from quite early on, and didn't want to push himself into the red at this point of his preparation for the Tour de France and beyond. He may have been saving something in reserve for this stage, which suits him nicely, and is a lot easier in its climbing load. I don't really think he has his top form here, especially after watching his early capitulation yesterday, and though he will probably be up there, he might lack that final punch to go for the win.
Chris Froome and Tejay Van Garderen look to be on highs after their good outings on the previous stage, but their abilities really don't suit the finale here. Neither are particularly punchy, and whilst I wouldn't expect either to lose anything more than a few seconds, they will be hard pressed to win this stage.
Dan Martin came into this race with the hope of refining his form for the Tour, but he looks pretty sharp already, and he has the sort of explosive power to win this stage. Andrew Talansky, his teammate, lacks the speed to really be effective on this short of final climb, and he is the leader of the team, so Cannondale-Garmin might not be too keen to bring the race back together, for fear that Talansky will lose time.
Simon Yates is probably the only other rider that I could see winning if the peleton arrives all together at the foot of the climb, he was the best of the main contenders in Pais Vasco, up a steep finish, and he looked very good in stage 5, finishing 5th. He has the sort of punchy, attacking abilities that a lot of other climbers lack, and if he is in with a shout on the final climb I would be surprised if he doesn't challenge for the win.
The rest of the 'contenders' are breakaway specialists, and, as always, it is a bit of a lottery to see who will get in the break, especially on the flat start to the stage, where there will be most likely be 4-5 moves go away before the final break is established.
Giampaolo Caruso is of course a Fishy's Previews favourite, and if on top form he would be one of the main contenders for the stage. He has some serious classics pedigree and he will be stronger than most on the short, punchy climb at the end. It is worth noting that he was 4th up the Cauberg in Amstel Gold, which would have been considered too shallow a climb for Caruso to be considered a contender in the past. The final climb here is very similar and Caruso will certainly be the favourite if he is a break that comes to the foot of this climb.
Tony Gallopin survived for a surprisingly long time on Stage 5, and whilst he doesn't really have the power to go with the favourites on this finale, he should have enough power to win from a break. His form is clearly quite good, and all he needs is the right opportunity. He already has a win this season, on a torrid stage in Paris-Nice where he survived the stage as much as winning it.
Joaquim Rodriquez has long been the master of winning when he gets into the final kilometre, and this stage would be right up his alley on top form. He doesn't appear to be a mile off that at present, only finishing 35 secs down on Van Garderen on today's finish, but in an interview after the race, the Director said that the acceleration is what Rodriguez is looking to build up in the training after the Dauphine, suggesting that he's not going to be at his explosive best here.
Alejandro Valverde cracked pretty early on the climb into Pra Loup, but he probably knew where his legs were at from quite early on, and didn't want to push himself into the red at this point of his preparation for the Tour de France and beyond. He may have been saving something in reserve for this stage, which suits him nicely, and is a lot easier in its climbing load. I don't really think he has his top form here, especially after watching his early capitulation yesterday, and though he will probably be up there, he might lack that final punch to go for the win.
Chris Froome and Tejay Van Garderen look to be on highs after their good outings on the previous stage, but their abilities really don't suit the finale here. Neither are particularly punchy, and whilst I wouldn't expect either to lose anything more than a few seconds, they will be hard pressed to win this stage.
Dan Martin came into this race with the hope of refining his form for the Tour, but he looks pretty sharp already, and he has the sort of explosive power to win this stage. Andrew Talansky, his teammate, lacks the speed to really be effective on this short of final climb, and he is the leader of the team, so Cannondale-Garmin might not be too keen to bring the race back together, for fear that Talansky will lose time.
Simon Yates is probably the only other rider that I could see winning if the peleton arrives all together at the foot of the climb, he was the best of the main contenders in Pais Vasco, up a steep finish, and he looked very good in stage 5, finishing 5th. He has the sort of punchy, attacking abilities that a lot of other climbers lack, and if he is in with a shout on the final climb I would be surprised if he doesn't challenge for the win.
The rest of the 'contenders' are breakaway specialists, and, as always, it is a bit of a lottery to see who will get in the break, especially on the flat start to the stage, where there will be most likely be 4-5 moves go away before the final break is established.
Giampaolo Caruso is of course a Fishy's Previews favourite, and if on top form he would be one of the main contenders for the stage. He has some serious classics pedigree and he will be stronger than most on the short, punchy climb at the end. It is worth noting that he was 4th up the Cauberg in Amstel Gold, which would have been considered too shallow a climb for Caruso to be considered a contender in the past. The final climb here is very similar and Caruso will certainly be the favourite if he is a break that comes to the foot of this climb.
Tony Gallopin survived for a surprisingly long time on Stage 5, and whilst he doesn't really have the power to go with the favourites on this finale, he should have enough power to win from a break. His form is clearly quite good, and all he needs is the right opportunity. He already has a win this season, on a torrid stage in Paris-Nice where he survived the stage as much as winning it.