The First real GC test is here, although the TTT and crashes have meant that some are a fair way off the pace already. This stage isn't where the race will be won, but it could give an indication of how each of the main contenders is going.
The Course
It's 161 kms from Digne-les-Bains to Pra Loup, and it is filled with climbing, although it is hardly the most difficult climbs these riders will have faced in their careers. It is however, the hardest climbs in the race so far, so there will definitely be a sorting out process on the GC, with the non-climbers falling out of contention to give a clearer picture of who is still in the race for the overall. The start is relatively flat and easy, until the Col de Leques (6 kms, 5.3%) starts with 34 kms travelled, with the Col de Toutes Aures (6.1 kms, 3.1%) and the Col de la Colle Saint-Michel (11 kms, 5.2%) the prelude to the main climbing of the day. The Col D'Alles (14 kms, 5.5%) is the toughest test of the day, the numbers don't tell the whole story, as it alternates between easy and hard sections and in particular the last 6 kms should be selective. From the summit there are 22 kms to go, and the road leads into a technical descent into the foot of the Pra Loup climb (6.2 kms, 6.5%) which again is inconsistent with its gradient, it generally averages between 7-8%, but has easy kms early in the climb. It probably isn't difficult enough for big gaps to be made, but if the racing has been hard up the previous climb, then some decent gaps can be made.
It's 161 kms from Digne-les-Bains to Pra Loup, and it is filled with climbing, although it is hardly the most difficult climbs these riders will have faced in their careers. It is however, the hardest climbs in the race so far, so there will definitely be a sorting out process on the GC, with the non-climbers falling out of contention to give a clearer picture of who is still in the race for the overall. The start is relatively flat and easy, until the Col de Leques (6 kms, 5.3%) starts with 34 kms travelled, with the Col de Toutes Aures (6.1 kms, 3.1%) and the Col de la Colle Saint-Michel (11 kms, 5.2%) the prelude to the main climbing of the day. The Col D'Alles (14 kms, 5.5%) is the toughest test of the day, the numbers don't tell the whole story, as it alternates between easy and hard sections and in particular the last 6 kms should be selective. From the summit there are 22 kms to go, and the road leads into a technical descent into the foot of the Pra Loup climb (6.2 kms, 6.5%) which again is inconsistent with its gradient, it generally averages between 7-8%, but has easy kms early in the climb. It probably isn't difficult enough for big gaps to be made, but if the racing has been hard up the previous climb, then some decent gaps can be made.
The Tactics
It should be relatively easy to control the break's composition with the flat start to the stage, but teams like MTN, Lotto-Soudal and Tinkoff-Saxo will know that their best chance of a win is from a break, and they'll strive to put one or two riders in an early move. BMC will be tasked with the early work on the flat and the intial climbs, but it would be a surprise to see them doing most of the work up the major climbs, and I would expect teams like Sky, Movistar and perhaps even Astana setting the pace up the Col D'Allos and the Pra Loup.
Some riders who fancied their GC prospects for this race have already lost a fair bit of time, and will need to make some fairly attacking moves if they want to take back time on the main protagonists in the race. Roman Bardet, Joaquim Rodriguez, Wilco Kelderman and Rui Costa are already a fair way back in the GC, due to relatively poor TTT performances, and will be eyeing up chances for them to gain big chunks of time, and it is a good opportunity for those riders today, with the hard climbing coming on the penultimate climb, and a descent immediately following, where a lone rider can gain time on a big croup chasing. Rodriguez in particular is renowned as a very good descender and if he puts an effort in to the top of the Col D'Allos and down the descent he could have a minute in the bank by the foot of the final climb.
If it comes down to a select group vying for the finish, then you would think Alejandro Valverde would take the stage in a sprint, based on all the other times that he has done exactly that in the past. Of course, all of his competitors know that, and will be looking to pre-empt the sprint, but dislodging Valverde is easier said than done.
It should be relatively easy to control the break's composition with the flat start to the stage, but teams like MTN, Lotto-Soudal and Tinkoff-Saxo will know that their best chance of a win is from a break, and they'll strive to put one or two riders in an early move. BMC will be tasked with the early work on the flat and the intial climbs, but it would be a surprise to see them doing most of the work up the major climbs, and I would expect teams like Sky, Movistar and perhaps even Astana setting the pace up the Col D'Allos and the Pra Loup.
Some riders who fancied their GC prospects for this race have already lost a fair bit of time, and will need to make some fairly attacking moves if they want to take back time on the main protagonists in the race. Roman Bardet, Joaquim Rodriguez, Wilco Kelderman and Rui Costa are already a fair way back in the GC, due to relatively poor TTT performances, and will be eyeing up chances for them to gain big chunks of time, and it is a good opportunity for those riders today, with the hard climbing coming on the penultimate climb, and a descent immediately following, where a lone rider can gain time on a big croup chasing. Rodriguez in particular is renowned as a very good descender and if he puts an effort in to the top of the Col D'Allos and down the descent he could have a minute in the bank by the foot of the final climb.
If it comes down to a select group vying for the finish, then you would think Alejandro Valverde would take the stage in a sprint, based on all the other times that he has done exactly that in the past. Of course, all of his competitors know that, and will be looking to pre-empt the sprint, but dislodging Valverde is easier said than done.
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde. As mentioned above, he is the fastest if it comes down to the final few hundred metres, and he is one of the best climbers in the world on top form. The question is whether he is in top form, and it seems unlikely that he will be. He won't be the leader for Movistar in the Tour De France, and as this race is preparation for that, he will be at one of his lower ebbs in form at the moment. Of course, he is rarely far off his best, and he is a strong contender for the win here.
Chris Froome is often very strong at the Dauphine, winning in 2013 and looking good last year, before a crash debilitated him and left him flailing on the final GC-upending stage of the race. He hasn't been in his normal level of form this season, and will want to correct that here with a good performance. This isn't the best stage for him, he will be a marked man, and the best chance for him to escape will be close to the finish where everyone's on their limit, but it might be a little shallow in gradient for him to make a difference.
Joaquim Rodriguez is rarely in the best of form for his lead-up races, and I doubt anything will be different here, but you never know, and he could be keen to bring some good form into the TDF. Again, he would prefer some steeper gradients on the final climb, but he may be given some freedom as he is already a minute down on GC. He is a superb descender, which may allow him to go on a long range move from the top of the Col D'Allos, which has a technical descent.
Tejay Van Garderen came into the race with big hopes of a top finish on GC, and he appears to be on track, with a very good TTT performance and some good legs to date in the race. Of course the big tests only really begin now, and it will be interesting to see how the American is going, he will certainly at least want to keep the leader's jersey in the squad for another day.
Vincenzo Nibali, like Rodriguez, isn't that good in his warm-up races, but he has been relatively active so far, attacking on Stage 4 and being part of a very good Astana TTT on Stage 3. He'll be relatively well-suited to today's stage, he is another top descender, who could potentially make a difference on the Col D'Allos descent, and he is one of the top climbers in the world when on form. I doubt he is on form at the moment, but again, he is far too good to write off.
Simon Yates looks to be the Yates brother of choice in this race, after watching Adam doing domestique duty (very impressively) on Stage 3. He has been in very good form this season, after writing last season off after a nasty fall, taking 5th in Pais Vasco and 6th in Romandie, against many of the riders that he'll be meeting here. He proved in those races that he is equally at home on the long climbs and the short, punchy ones, so he won't be found out of place on the tests in this stage. He does have quite a kick on the shallower gradients, and so could be a viable winning candidate for the stage.
Daniel Martin is another who will like the look of the final climb, he has very good classics pedigree and he'll be very hard to stop if he arrives at the finish with the leading riders. On the other hand, his big objectives are at the Tour de France, and he normally doesn't maintain his form for too long, so I would be surprised to see him at his top level already.
Roman Bardet is a rider who might be looking for an opportunity to make a long-range move, as he is a fair way down on GC, and he knows that he won't be able to make up a minute on Van Garderen and 30 seconds on Chris Froome by playing it safe. He is a skilled descender, and more importantly he really has an attacking mentality which has served him well in the past. He clealy has good legs at this race, going off the front in Stage 4, and looking strong in doing so.
Matthias Frank has opted to skip his home race to go to the Dauphine, so he must have a pretty compelling reason to do so. Whether that is because he is looking to have more time off before the TDF, or whether he is hoping to target a good result here, is to be seen. Whatever his motivation, he is a top climber and if he has decent legs then he will be right up there.
Alejandro Valverde. As mentioned above, he is the fastest if it comes down to the final few hundred metres, and he is one of the best climbers in the world on top form. The question is whether he is in top form, and it seems unlikely that he will be. He won't be the leader for Movistar in the Tour De France, and as this race is preparation for that, he will be at one of his lower ebbs in form at the moment. Of course, he is rarely far off his best, and he is a strong contender for the win here.
Chris Froome is often very strong at the Dauphine, winning in 2013 and looking good last year, before a crash debilitated him and left him flailing on the final GC-upending stage of the race. He hasn't been in his normal level of form this season, and will want to correct that here with a good performance. This isn't the best stage for him, he will be a marked man, and the best chance for him to escape will be close to the finish where everyone's on their limit, but it might be a little shallow in gradient for him to make a difference.
Joaquim Rodriguez is rarely in the best of form for his lead-up races, and I doubt anything will be different here, but you never know, and he could be keen to bring some good form into the TDF. Again, he would prefer some steeper gradients on the final climb, but he may be given some freedom as he is already a minute down on GC. He is a superb descender, which may allow him to go on a long range move from the top of the Col D'Allos, which has a technical descent.
Tejay Van Garderen came into the race with big hopes of a top finish on GC, and he appears to be on track, with a very good TTT performance and some good legs to date in the race. Of course the big tests only really begin now, and it will be interesting to see how the American is going, he will certainly at least want to keep the leader's jersey in the squad for another day.
Vincenzo Nibali, like Rodriguez, isn't that good in his warm-up races, but he has been relatively active so far, attacking on Stage 4 and being part of a very good Astana TTT on Stage 3. He'll be relatively well-suited to today's stage, he is another top descender, who could potentially make a difference on the Col D'Allos descent, and he is one of the top climbers in the world when on form. I doubt he is on form at the moment, but again, he is far too good to write off.
Simon Yates looks to be the Yates brother of choice in this race, after watching Adam doing domestique duty (very impressively) on Stage 3. He has been in very good form this season, after writing last season off after a nasty fall, taking 5th in Pais Vasco and 6th in Romandie, against many of the riders that he'll be meeting here. He proved in those races that he is equally at home on the long climbs and the short, punchy ones, so he won't be found out of place on the tests in this stage. He does have quite a kick on the shallower gradients, and so could be a viable winning candidate for the stage.
Daniel Martin is another who will like the look of the final climb, he has very good classics pedigree and he'll be very hard to stop if he arrives at the finish with the leading riders. On the other hand, his big objectives are at the Tour de France, and he normally doesn't maintain his form for too long, so I would be surprised to see him at his top level already.
Roman Bardet is a rider who might be looking for an opportunity to make a long-range move, as he is a fair way down on GC, and he knows that he won't be able to make up a minute on Van Garderen and 30 seconds on Chris Froome by playing it safe. He is a skilled descender, and more importantly he really has an attacking mentality which has served him well in the past. He clealy has good legs at this race, going off the front in Stage 4, and looking strong in doing so.
Matthias Frank has opted to skip his home race to go to the Dauphine, so he must have a pretty compelling reason to do so. Whether that is because he is looking to have more time off before the TDF, or whether he is hoping to target a good result here, is to be seen. Whatever his motivation, he is a top climber and if he has decent legs then he will be right up there.
The Verdict
Simon Yates looks good for a breakthrough win sometime soon in his career, and today could be the day for the Brit. He has the nous, the form and the ability, now he just needs to put it all together on the day.
Simon Yates looks good for a breakthrough win sometime soon in his career, and today could be the day for the Brit. He has the nous, the form and the ability, now he just needs to put it all together on the day.