A fairly straightforward sprint stage here, but the breakaway might think that they have a chance here, with a nice climb early to prevent the teams of the sprinters controlling the move, and a category 1 climb before the mid-point of the stage. A flat finish will encourage Cofidis and Lampre to chase for their fast men however.
The Course
The Col du Chat (2.8 kms, 6.8%) greets the riders at the start to this stage, and from there rolling terrain takes the peleton into the foot of the Col de Cuvery (8.7 kms, 6.7%). It is over 100 kms from there to the flat, non-technical finish. The weather has been benign so far for the riders, and so it will continue, mild temperatures and next to no wind.
The Col du Chat (2.8 kms, 6.8%) greets the riders at the start to this stage, and from there rolling terrain takes the peleton into the foot of the Col de Cuvery (8.7 kms, 6.7%). It is over 100 kms from there to the flat, non-technical finish. The weather has been benign so far for the riders, and so it will continue, mild temperatures and next to no wind.
The Tactics
Expect Lampre and Cofidis to take up most of the responsibility for the chase, although Sky will also lend a hand to defend their leader's jersey. Once it gets to the finish, of course, every team with half a sprinter on its roster is going to throw its hat in the ring for the stage win, but Lampre and Cofidis are the main players in this stage.
Expect Lampre and Cofidis to take up most of the responsibility for the chase, although Sky will also lend a hand to defend their leader's jersey. Once it gets to the finish, of course, every team with half a sprinter on its roster is going to throw its hat in the ring for the stage win, but Lampre and Cofidis are the main players in this stage.
The Contenders
Simply put, Modolo and Bouhanni are the two fastest guys here, and both have teams that are committed to getting stage wins for their sprinters, though they also have other objectives. They are going to be the main protagonists in the sprint, and I doubt any of the others have the speed to beat the pair.
Modolo was the strongest of the two in the reduced bunch sprint, coming off a nice trail to take a convincing 2nd, behind the solo winner. He has clearly kept most of his Giro form and is looking sharp. He will be missing his leadout that stood him in such great stead during the Giro, but he should have the legs to finish it off if he gets into the right position.
Bouhanni on the other hand, had a tougher time of it, after having his entire leadout dropped on the climbs, and struggling up the last one himself. He also had to come from a long way back in the sprint and whilst he was going quite fast, he never seriously challenged for the win. This stage should be much more to his liking however, most of the stage's climbing is done with by the halfway point, and he will have his leadout of Christophe Laporte, Julien Simon and most importantly, Gregory Soupe, to set him up. Unlike Modolo, his form will be increasing rather than going the other way, and he probably has a speed advantage on the Italian.
Luka Mezgec looked impressive in the hilly sprint stages last year, but he appears to have dropped off a yard of pace or two in the last season, as well as losing his climbing legs. He was generally up there in the Giro sprints, without looking like winning at any stage, and I would expect a similar performance from him here.
Jonas Vangenechten was pretty prolific down the grades in the sprints last season, but since taking the step up he hasn't had many opportunities to sprint for himself. In this race, IAM have said that he'll get his chance, and we should see how well Vangenechten can mix it up with the World Tour riders. He is almost exclusively a rider for the flats, and he will be hurt by the climb, but he shoud have ample time to recover, and he is one of the few that has the raw speed to beat the top two here.
Orica-Greenedge are an interesting team here, they have Daryl Impey, Magnus Cort, Simon Gerrans and even Jens Keukeliere, but I suspect that they'll opt to support their neo pro, the Danish speedster Magnus Cort. He is probably better on a harder parcours and maybe even a uphill finish, but he is probably the outright fastest of the OGE riders here. He will have a good leadout at his disposal and could be in a very good position to launch his sprint.
Alexeii Tsatevich is a hardy sprinter, very much in the mold of a young Alexander Kristoff, and he's already taking similar sort of results in tough races as his much more famous teammate was doing at his age. He lacks the top end speed of most of the others on this list in a flat sprint, but he won't lose any speed if it proves to be a hard day on the bike.
There are others who can mix it up in this company, Rasmanus Navardauskas, Samuel Dumoulin, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Julian Alaphillipe, Yannick Martinez, Kevin Reza and Paul Voss all have decent history in sprints, and will be the sort of names to fill out the top 10.
Simply put, Modolo and Bouhanni are the two fastest guys here, and both have teams that are committed to getting stage wins for their sprinters, though they also have other objectives. They are going to be the main protagonists in the sprint, and I doubt any of the others have the speed to beat the pair.
Modolo was the strongest of the two in the reduced bunch sprint, coming off a nice trail to take a convincing 2nd, behind the solo winner. He has clearly kept most of his Giro form and is looking sharp. He will be missing his leadout that stood him in such great stead during the Giro, but he should have the legs to finish it off if he gets into the right position.
Bouhanni on the other hand, had a tougher time of it, after having his entire leadout dropped on the climbs, and struggling up the last one himself. He also had to come from a long way back in the sprint and whilst he was going quite fast, he never seriously challenged for the win. This stage should be much more to his liking however, most of the stage's climbing is done with by the halfway point, and he will have his leadout of Christophe Laporte, Julien Simon and most importantly, Gregory Soupe, to set him up. Unlike Modolo, his form will be increasing rather than going the other way, and he probably has a speed advantage on the Italian.
Luka Mezgec looked impressive in the hilly sprint stages last year, but he appears to have dropped off a yard of pace or two in the last season, as well as losing his climbing legs. He was generally up there in the Giro sprints, without looking like winning at any stage, and I would expect a similar performance from him here.
Jonas Vangenechten was pretty prolific down the grades in the sprints last season, but since taking the step up he hasn't had many opportunities to sprint for himself. In this race, IAM have said that he'll get his chance, and we should see how well Vangenechten can mix it up with the World Tour riders. He is almost exclusively a rider for the flats, and he will be hurt by the climb, but he shoud have ample time to recover, and he is one of the few that has the raw speed to beat the top two here.
Orica-Greenedge are an interesting team here, they have Daryl Impey, Magnus Cort, Simon Gerrans and even Jens Keukeliere, but I suspect that they'll opt to support their neo pro, the Danish speedster Magnus Cort. He is probably better on a harder parcours and maybe even a uphill finish, but he is probably the outright fastest of the OGE riders here. He will have a good leadout at his disposal and could be in a very good position to launch his sprint.
Alexeii Tsatevich is a hardy sprinter, very much in the mold of a young Alexander Kristoff, and he's already taking similar sort of results in tough races as his much more famous teammate was doing at his age. He lacks the top end speed of most of the others on this list in a flat sprint, but he won't lose any speed if it proves to be a hard day on the bike.
There are others who can mix it up in this company, Rasmanus Navardauskas, Samuel Dumoulin, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Julian Alaphillipe, Yannick Martinez, Kevin Reza and Paul Voss all have decent history in sprints, and will be the sort of names to fill out the top 10.
The Verdict
No need to overthink things here, Cofidis will have the strongest leadout here, maybe except for OGE, and they will leave Bouhanni off at a nice spot to sprint, and he is the fastest man at this race, so should win easily.
No need to overthink things here, Cofidis will have the strongest leadout here, maybe except for OGE, and they will leave Bouhanni off at a nice spot to sprint, and he is the fastest man at this race, so should win easily.