A very short stage to kick off the Dauphine this year, with the finishing circuit reminiscent of a slightly more tame Liege-Bastogne-Liege. I think this stage will likely come down to how the teams of the favourites opt to ride it. If they attack, then we could see the peleton split to bits and some big gaps early in the race, or it could be the situation where it ends up in a reduced bunch sprint, with perhaps some of the lesser names trying to attack later on.
The Course
The 131.5 km stage takes the riders from Ugine to Albertville, which isn't that far, and they make up the rest of the length of the race by doing 6 circuits around Albertville. The terrain is largely flat apart for the Cote du Villard (1.2 kms, 8.7%), and the course after continues to ascend for a bit before taking in a rolling technical descent down to the flat. That is a section where any attacks will have to go, and they should be able to build a decent gap, as it is difficult for the peleton to go as fast as a small group in that sort of terrain. Nonetheless, there are 12.5 kms to go from the summit of the final ascent, and 8 kms of entirely flat roads which will be easier for the peleton to reel in the attackers.
The 131.5 km stage takes the riders from Ugine to Albertville, which isn't that far, and they make up the rest of the length of the race by doing 6 circuits around Albertville. The terrain is largely flat apart for the Cote du Villard (1.2 kms, 8.7%), and the course after continues to ascend for a bit before taking in a rolling technical descent down to the flat. That is a section where any attacks will have to go, and they should be able to build a decent gap, as it is difficult for the peleton to go as fast as a small group in that sort of terrain. Nonetheless, there are 12.5 kms to go from the summit of the final ascent, and 8 kms of entirely flat roads which will be easier for the peleton to reel in the attackers.
The Tactics
I think this day will prove too hard for the sprinters like Modolo and Bouhanni, and even if it isn't they aren't going to have many teammates with them to do the chasing required to bring the attackers back, and their presence will stop other teams doing the work required. Whilst it is possible that it comes down to a big bunch sprint, I believe it more likely to be a late attack that takes, or a significantly reduced bunch that sprints for the win.
I think this day will prove too hard for the sprinters like Modolo and Bouhanni, and even if it isn't they aren't going to have many teammates with them to do the chasing required to bring the attackers back, and their presence will stop other teams doing the work required. Whilst it is possible that it comes down to a big bunch sprint, I believe it more likely to be a late attack that takes, or a significantly reduced bunch that sprints for the win.