The parcours for this edition of the Dauphine is varied, with no one stage the same, and plenty of different ways for riders to make time on GC. The sprinters aren't going to have the best of races, which is probably why only a few have turned up, but there should be a number of chances from reduced bunches for hardier riders. The organisers have snuck a team time trial as well, and the major climbing comes toward the end of the race in the Alps.
The Course
Stage 1- This one will come down to how it is raced, it could be a compressed Liege-Bastogne-Liege or just a particularly hilly sprint stage. Expect a lot of action at the start to get into the break, as there isn't a standout favourite for the stage, and no leader's jersey to defend. Favourites: Valverde, Alaphillipe, Felline, Carsuo, Impey, Nibali
Stage 2- Another decent chance for the breakaway, with two decent climbs, the first to allow a strong break to get away, then the second to slow the sprinters and the chase down. Nevertheless, the probabilities are that they will be caught, and it will be a day for the sprinters. Favourites: Bouhanni, Modolo, Mezgec, Boeckmans, Felline, Impey
Stage 3- This is a team time trial for the powerful teams, with long open roads and very few turns. It finishes on a gradual rise, but not to any extant that it would favour climbers. Favourites: Etixx-Quickstep, Cannondale-Garmin, Bora-Argon 18, BMC, Sky
Stage 4- Probably a sprint stage, but there's a nasty sting in the tail, with the Cote de la Marquisse (1.3 kms, 6.7%) summiting with only 13 kms to go. On the face of it, the climb shouldn't be hard enough to drop the sprinters and 13 kms is normally plenty of time to catch any attackers, but the terrain after the climb is rolling and technical, and it will prove pretty hard for the chasing bunch to close a gap down. Favourites: Combination of the favourites from Stages 1 and 2
Stage 5- The first real GC day, but fairly easy, with nothing too tough until the Col d'Allas (14 kms, 5.5%), which contains some really hard pinches despite its overall easy gradient. The finishing climb looks like a Valverde special, too easy and short to shake him and too hard and long for anyone with a faster sprint.
Stage 6- Lots of accumulated climbing over the course of the day, but none of it is particularly hard, which leads me to think that it will be a day for the breakaway, especially with the final climb being quite short, and the penultimate climb located 50 kms from the finish line. Favourites: Break, Valverde, Rodriguez
Stage 7- The queen stage of the Dauphine and it is definitely one for the top climbers, with 6 hard climbs throughout the stage. The Montee du Bettex (7 kms, 7.7%) is the toughest summit finish of the race, and is a lot more difficult than its gradient suggests, with a downhill section included mid climb. Favourites: Froome, Valverde, Nibali
Stage 1- This one will come down to how it is raced, it could be a compressed Liege-Bastogne-Liege or just a particularly hilly sprint stage. Expect a lot of action at the start to get into the break, as there isn't a standout favourite for the stage, and no leader's jersey to defend. Favourites: Valverde, Alaphillipe, Felline, Carsuo, Impey, Nibali
Stage 2- Another decent chance for the breakaway, with two decent climbs, the first to allow a strong break to get away, then the second to slow the sprinters and the chase down. Nevertheless, the probabilities are that they will be caught, and it will be a day for the sprinters. Favourites: Bouhanni, Modolo, Mezgec, Boeckmans, Felline, Impey
Stage 3- This is a team time trial for the powerful teams, with long open roads and very few turns. It finishes on a gradual rise, but not to any extant that it would favour climbers. Favourites: Etixx-Quickstep, Cannondale-Garmin, Bora-Argon 18, BMC, Sky
Stage 4- Probably a sprint stage, but there's a nasty sting in the tail, with the Cote de la Marquisse (1.3 kms, 6.7%) summiting with only 13 kms to go. On the face of it, the climb shouldn't be hard enough to drop the sprinters and 13 kms is normally plenty of time to catch any attackers, but the terrain after the climb is rolling and technical, and it will prove pretty hard for the chasing bunch to close a gap down. Favourites: Combination of the favourites from Stages 1 and 2
Stage 5- The first real GC day, but fairly easy, with nothing too tough until the Col d'Allas (14 kms, 5.5%), which contains some really hard pinches despite its overall easy gradient. The finishing climb looks like a Valverde special, too easy and short to shake him and too hard and long for anyone with a faster sprint.
Stage 6- Lots of accumulated climbing over the course of the day, but none of it is particularly hard, which leads me to think that it will be a day for the breakaway, especially with the final climb being quite short, and the penultimate climb located 50 kms from the finish line. Favourites: Break, Valverde, Rodriguez
Stage 7- The queen stage of the Dauphine and it is definitely one for the top climbers, with 6 hard climbs throughout the stage. The Montee du Bettex (7 kms, 7.7%) is the toughest summit finish of the race, and is a lot more difficult than its gradient suggests, with a downhill section included mid climb. Favourites: Froome, Valverde, Nibali
The Contenders
Chris Froome hasn't had the best season to date, at least by his high standards. He started well, besting Contador (just) in Andalucia, before falling sick and finishing well down the GC in Andalucia, and then still not looking convincing some weeks later in Romandie where he finished 3rd behind the Russian duo Zakarin and Spilak, despite the course looking like it suited him very well. He has been in training since, and will have had plenty of chance to recover his condition. The parcours will be ok for him in this Dauphine, he'd prefer a TT to a TTT, but Sky have a pretty strong squad, and he'll mostly likely gain time on his main rivals, but he'll have to balance that against losing a bit of time on the more explosive stages which don't suit his characteristics. The last day will be where the biggest time gaps are made, and there isn't a better climber than Froome in the high mountains. How his form is going is unknown, but he generally shows up to the Dauphine in almost top form.
Alejandro Valverde was in stellar form in the Ardennes, and was very good in Volta a Catalunya, where he won three stages and was only stopped from winning the overall by an untimely puncture. He has had a break since then, but given that he's almost always in pretty good form, it would be odd to see him far from the top of the GC. Perhaps the only issue surrounding his form is what level he wants to be at for the Tour, where Nairo Quintana is the nominated leader. If he's going full support, he could be well below his best, saving his energies for the Vuelta, but that seems an unlikely option for the ultra-competitive Valverde. A few of the stages suit him down to the ground here, and he will go in as the favourite for stages 1, 5 and 6 and could well have a nice little buffer over his rivals, which he will probably need, as Movistar haven't brought their best TTT squad. Obviously he is one of the best climbers in the world, and he will have a strong climbing squad in support of his GC objectives.
Joaquim Rodriguez surprised a lot of people when he won the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, finishing 2nd on the final day's TT to win the overall. He will be well suited by the course with Stage 6's finish looking right up his alley, and Stage 7's varying gradients on its major climbs will suit the tiny Spaniard nicely. Like the others, he hasn't raced much recently, but unlike the others, he tends to manage his form a bit before Grand Tours, and I wouldn't expect him to be in peak form.
Katusha may instead opt to support Fishy's favourite Giampaolo Caruso, who hasn't really had a chance to lead a team at a stage race before, but when working for others, he has an ability to consistently finish in the teens of the GC. He's a weak time triallist, so he'll be happy that it's just the TTT here, and the reduced Liege-Bastogne-Liege stage 1 looks right up his alley. He is quite a punchy rider, and won't be left behind on those stages, and the real test will be to see how he stacks up against some of the best climbers in the world. As much as I love Caruso, he's not at that level, and you would think that he'd need a significant advantage of some sort to take on the likes of Froome.
Vincenzo Nibali, as reigning Tour de France champion, should be higher on this list, but he is hard to back in his preparation events as he really just aims to peak for his big goal of the season, in this case the TDF. It was around this stage last year that he started showing some form with a 7th in the Dauphine, and he should be around the same level this season, as his form seems to be on a very similar trajectory. In top form, he'd be right up there on this course. His Astana team has brought a strong TTT squad, which could take some time on most of his rivals, and the final stage, with its uneven gradients suits his climbing style quite well.
Wilco Kelderman has been pretty solid this season without setting the world on fire, but he'll be trying to ramp up his form prior to the Tour. He was 4th last year, but that was straight off the Giro, and he is at a completely different stage of his preparation here. He will probably be working at refining his form here, his team will lose time in the TTT, and it is hard to see him out climbing the top guys here. He has a lot of promise however, and if he has taken a step up again, he will be right up there.
Chris Froome hasn't had the best season to date, at least by his high standards. He started well, besting Contador (just) in Andalucia, before falling sick and finishing well down the GC in Andalucia, and then still not looking convincing some weeks later in Romandie where he finished 3rd behind the Russian duo Zakarin and Spilak, despite the course looking like it suited him very well. He has been in training since, and will have had plenty of chance to recover his condition. The parcours will be ok for him in this Dauphine, he'd prefer a TT to a TTT, but Sky have a pretty strong squad, and he'll mostly likely gain time on his main rivals, but he'll have to balance that against losing a bit of time on the more explosive stages which don't suit his characteristics. The last day will be where the biggest time gaps are made, and there isn't a better climber than Froome in the high mountains. How his form is going is unknown, but he generally shows up to the Dauphine in almost top form.
Alejandro Valverde was in stellar form in the Ardennes, and was very good in Volta a Catalunya, where he won three stages and was only stopped from winning the overall by an untimely puncture. He has had a break since then, but given that he's almost always in pretty good form, it would be odd to see him far from the top of the GC. Perhaps the only issue surrounding his form is what level he wants to be at for the Tour, where Nairo Quintana is the nominated leader. If he's going full support, he could be well below his best, saving his energies for the Vuelta, but that seems an unlikely option for the ultra-competitive Valverde. A few of the stages suit him down to the ground here, and he will go in as the favourite for stages 1, 5 and 6 and could well have a nice little buffer over his rivals, which he will probably need, as Movistar haven't brought their best TTT squad. Obviously he is one of the best climbers in the world, and he will have a strong climbing squad in support of his GC objectives.
Joaquim Rodriguez surprised a lot of people when he won the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, finishing 2nd on the final day's TT to win the overall. He will be well suited by the course with Stage 6's finish looking right up his alley, and Stage 7's varying gradients on its major climbs will suit the tiny Spaniard nicely. Like the others, he hasn't raced much recently, but unlike the others, he tends to manage his form a bit before Grand Tours, and I wouldn't expect him to be in peak form.
Katusha may instead opt to support Fishy's favourite Giampaolo Caruso, who hasn't really had a chance to lead a team at a stage race before, but when working for others, he has an ability to consistently finish in the teens of the GC. He's a weak time triallist, so he'll be happy that it's just the TTT here, and the reduced Liege-Bastogne-Liege stage 1 looks right up his alley. He is quite a punchy rider, and won't be left behind on those stages, and the real test will be to see how he stacks up against some of the best climbers in the world. As much as I love Caruso, he's not at that level, and you would think that he'd need a significant advantage of some sort to take on the likes of Froome.
Vincenzo Nibali, as reigning Tour de France champion, should be higher on this list, but he is hard to back in his preparation events as he really just aims to peak for his big goal of the season, in this case the TDF. It was around this stage last year that he started showing some form with a 7th in the Dauphine, and he should be around the same level this season, as his form seems to be on a very similar trajectory. In top form, he'd be right up there on this course. His Astana team has brought a strong TTT squad, which could take some time on most of his rivals, and the final stage, with its uneven gradients suits his climbing style quite well.
Wilco Kelderman has been pretty solid this season without setting the world on fire, but he'll be trying to ramp up his form prior to the Tour. He was 4th last year, but that was straight off the Giro, and he is at a completely different stage of his preparation here. He will probably be working at refining his form here, his team will lose time in the TTT, and it is hard to see him out climbing the top guys here. He has a lot of promise however, and if he has taken a step up again, he will be right up there.