Spain doesn't have many one-day races, but the Clasica San Sebastian is normally a cracker, and a worthy addition to the classics pantheon. Valverde took the win last year, and will be coming into this edition with even better form, which should make him even harder to beat.
The Course
Held in the Basque region of Spain, the course loops around San Sebastian a number of times, sometimes in the hills, and other times on the flats nearer to the coast. The course has seen quite a few changes in its history, but it remains the same from last season, where it came down to 5 escapees over the final climb.
The start of the race is quite straightforward as the riders depart San Sebastian and take a quick tour of the Atlantic Coast before turning inland to the hills. The Alto Iturburua (7km, 5%) is a bit harder than it sounds, as the riders have already ascended through the foothills leading to the start of the climb. It will mostly act as a leg-sapper, as there is a quick descent into 50 kilometres of rolling terrain.
From there on, the course begins to get really hard, with the climbs coming in quick succession, with the Alto de Jaizkibel (7.8 km, 5.8%) kicking things off. Again it is harder than the stats show, with the climb being split into two parts, with each section averaging between 7 and 8%. The Alto de Arkale (2.7km, 6.3%) is up next and then it is straight up the Alto de Jaizkibel again, followed by the sharp descent and short run into the Alto de Arkale, both for the second time. 31 kilometres remain from the top of the Arkale to the finish, and the descent and flat that follow have been the scenes for attacks in the past. In this edition as in the last however, there is the final really tough climb up to the Hotel San Sebastian (2.5 km, 9%) which is really inconsistent, and has pinches of up to 22%. It has three really tough sections, in between the climbing is significantly easier, and it is a really narrow road, so positioning is very important. The final tough section leads to the summit, and the descent from there is a fast pedalling one, and not overly technical, although it was where Valverde launched his winning attack last year, and also where Adam Yates crashed, so maybe it is trickier than it looks. At the bottom of the descent only 3.2 kilometres remain into the flat sprint finish.
The weather should be fine and mild for the race, rather than the hot conditions usual in this region at this time of the year. If it turns, the race could be effected by wind off the Atlantic, but that will be the early stages of the race, so it is likely to have less impact.
Held in the Basque region of Spain, the course loops around San Sebastian a number of times, sometimes in the hills, and other times on the flats nearer to the coast. The course has seen quite a few changes in its history, but it remains the same from last season, where it came down to 5 escapees over the final climb.
The start of the race is quite straightforward as the riders depart San Sebastian and take a quick tour of the Atlantic Coast before turning inland to the hills. The Alto Iturburua (7km, 5%) is a bit harder than it sounds, as the riders have already ascended through the foothills leading to the start of the climb. It will mostly act as a leg-sapper, as there is a quick descent into 50 kilometres of rolling terrain.
From there on, the course begins to get really hard, with the climbs coming in quick succession, with the Alto de Jaizkibel (7.8 km, 5.8%) kicking things off. Again it is harder than the stats show, with the climb being split into two parts, with each section averaging between 7 and 8%. The Alto de Arkale (2.7km, 6.3%) is up next and then it is straight up the Alto de Jaizkibel again, followed by the sharp descent and short run into the Alto de Arkale, both for the second time. 31 kilometres remain from the top of the Arkale to the finish, and the descent and flat that follow have been the scenes for attacks in the past. In this edition as in the last however, there is the final really tough climb up to the Hotel San Sebastian (2.5 km, 9%) which is really inconsistent, and has pinches of up to 22%. It has three really tough sections, in between the climbing is significantly easier, and it is a really narrow road, so positioning is very important. The final tough section leads to the summit, and the descent from there is a fast pedalling one, and not overly technical, although it was where Valverde launched his winning attack last year, and also where Adam Yates crashed, so maybe it is trickier than it looks. At the bottom of the descent only 3.2 kilometres remain into the flat sprint finish.
The weather should be fine and mild for the race, rather than the hot conditions usual in this region at this time of the year. If it turns, the race could be effected by wind off the Atlantic, but that will be the early stages of the race, so it is likely to have less impact.
The Tactics
I'm not sure the race benefits from having a tough climb at the finish, as it neutralises the rest of the race to an extent, with the favourites not wanting to ruin their chances by attacking and wasting energy too early. On this new course, it is still wide open for a different set of tactics, and it will all likely depend on how hard the climbs up the Jaizkibel and the Arkale are in the middle of the race. Fast ascents up those climbs will thin out the peleton, and most importantly eliminate the domestiques of the contenders. This is important as there are a lot of flat kilometres after the summit of the Arkale which could allow a small group to establish a sizeable gap, if there aren't many teammates behind to do the chasing for the main contenders.
Last year, the race was kept fairly well in hand by Movistar and AG2R throughout, and a largish group made the bottom of the final climb to contest the win. The final climb is a very difficult one, and it will be important to go into it in good position and maintain that throughout as the road is narrow, and it will be hard to move up. It is also important to judge one's effort on the climb, it really is tough, and an early efforts will be paid for in double later.
Movistar and Katusha will probably be saddled with the majority of the pace-making, with the main favourites in their team, and to be honest I see it tough for the other teams to beat the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez over the final climb and subsequent sprint, and they will have to innovate with a long range move to win this one.
I'm not sure the race benefits from having a tough climb at the finish, as it neutralises the rest of the race to an extent, with the favourites not wanting to ruin their chances by attacking and wasting energy too early. On this new course, it is still wide open for a different set of tactics, and it will all likely depend on how hard the climbs up the Jaizkibel and the Arkale are in the middle of the race. Fast ascents up those climbs will thin out the peleton, and most importantly eliminate the domestiques of the contenders. This is important as there are a lot of flat kilometres after the summit of the Arkale which could allow a small group to establish a sizeable gap, if there aren't many teammates behind to do the chasing for the main contenders.
Last year, the race was kept fairly well in hand by Movistar and AG2R throughout, and a largish group made the bottom of the final climb to contest the win. The final climb is a very difficult one, and it will be important to go into it in good position and maintain that throughout as the road is narrow, and it will be hard to move up. It is also important to judge one's effort on the climb, it really is tough, and an early efforts will be paid for in double later.
Movistar and Katusha will probably be saddled with the majority of the pace-making, with the main favourites in their team, and to be honest I see it tough for the other teams to beat the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez over the final climb and subsequent sprint, and they will have to innovate with a long range move to win this one.
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde comes in as the deserved standout favourite for this race. He is just off a superb outing at the Tour, where he was just as strong at the end as any point throughout. He is very well suited to the course, with the overall amount of climbing, the tough finishing climb and the flat finish all playing into the experienced Spaniard's hands. He has a very strong team at his disposal as well, which contains a number of alternative winners like Nairo Quintana, Gorka Izaguirre and Giovanni Visconti. He won last season by following Rodriguez over the final climb, then surprising him with an attack on the descent, and maintaining his advantage into the finish line.
Joaquim Rodriguez is the other big contender here, and he will be very hard to beat here. He absolutely loves the steep climbs, and is arguably the best in the world at the steepest gradients. He flew up the final climb last year, and that was off a lot poorer form than he brings here. His form in the Tour was curious however, on the top of his game at stages, then well off the pace in others. I'll give him the benfit of the doubt here, as he really is a classics rider more than he is a Grand Tour one, and he should be primed for this race. He also packs a decent sprint, not up to Valverde's standard, but he may beat other riders.
Adam Yates was third over the final climb last year, and there's no reason why he can't do better this year, with natural improvement and his first Grand Tour behind him. A lot of riders comment on how much stronger they feel after their first Grand Tour in their legs, and it could be the case for Adam Yates here, who comes off decent form in the Tour, where he had a number of top 10 places on mountains stages, and stuck with Froome on Alpe d'Huez for quite a long time before cracking. At least in his early career I think he and his brother have better talents in the one-day races, they are very good climbers, but on the punchier side of things, and I would have thought that their best results would come in one-day races. Simon Yates is here as well, but I'm discounting his chances, as he has given interviews in recent days saying that he hasn't recovered well, and is sitting at about 75% of his normal condition.
Daniel Martin had an 'almost' sort of Tour, he managed two 2nd placings, and was in a decent placing on GC, despite losing 5 minutes on the cobbled stage. He then lost a lot of time during the middle stages after falling ill, and he managed only 39th on the overall in the end. He was clearly getting better at the end of the Tour, and the extra week's rest will be well received by him. He really is a classics rider, and a lot stronger on the steep, short finishes than the longer climbs. He isn't the best bike handler, and has the nasty habit of crashing in crucial races, but he has a decent sprint, and whilst he won't beat Valverde, he will probably take Rodriguez in a flat sprint. He hasn't raced San Sebastian at full condition before, but there's no reason to expect that he won't go well.
Thibaut Pinot couldn't be coming off better form from the TDF, winning the Alpe d'Huez stage and he'll be looking to convert that into a good result here. He hasn't been a great classics rider in the past, his best result in a classic is 12th in Giro Lombardia. He isn't bad on the steeper climbs, as he proved in the Tour, passing the top of the climb of Mende, which is a bit harder than the finale here, in first, only passed by Steven Cummings on the descent to the finish. I think he will have similar problems here, even if he is first to the top, he will struggle on the descent and he also doesn't have a particularly good sprint.
Romain Bardet finished just behind Pinot on the Mende stage, but I think he is a better candidate for the win here. He has a much better classics pedigree, he finished 6th at Liege this year, and has generally been in the mix in the one day races. He finished the TDF strongly, going in a series of breakaways to improve his GC position, from 36th after the first week to 10th at the finish. I think he is a strong candidate for an aggressive move, perhaps off the descent of the Jaizkibel, and looking to maintain that through to the line. That would have to be set up by a strong move from AG2R, trying to thin out the field, but Ag2R do have the strength in their team to decimate the field, and if they opt to do that then Bardet could be given a good shot at victory. He probably doesn't have the ability to go with the best on the final climb, but he could get a win with different tactics.
Alexis Vuillermoz is another AG2R rider that can possibly win. He is particularly strong on the steeper climbs, and he has achieved good results on the Mur de Huy, and then won the stage on the Mur de Bretagne, after making use of a tactical stalemate amongst the GC riders to escape. I'd keep him in reserve for the final climb, on the steep slopes where he excels, but his form is somewhat in the air, after he failed to feature after his impressive stage win earlier in the Tour. He doesn't really have the versatility or the outright climbing ability of the Spaniards here, but he could make use of his non-favouritism to surprise here.
Julian Alaphillipe is a superb young rider who has burst upon the scene this year, but he has apparently been been suffering in his recovery, and this race will be his first back, so I wouldn't think that he'll be in top form for this race.
Roman Kreuziger is a possible candidate for a win from an attacking move, he isn't in great form this season, but he did put in a good attack during Liege-Bastogne-Liege, where he could have taken the win and then sprinted to 4th any way. He has history at winning from long attacks, taking Amstel Gold from a similar move. He has the leadership of the squad, and whilst I doubt that he can match the favourites, another long range move could be in the offing for the Czech, who has won the race before in 2009.
Bauke Mollema finished 2nd in this race last year, but he was 5th over the climb. He comes off the Tour in better form than he did last year, and he will be well supported by a strong team here. Mollema is a combative rider who gives it a very good go in the classics, but I doubt that me has the punch to win on the final climb. He has aggressive instincts, and he could mount a long range move to challenge the main contenders, but that is more likely an instruction to be issued to secondary riders like Arredondo, Jungels or Zubeldia.
David Tanner will be my joker here, as he is often active in the classics races from a long way out, and if the race plays into his hands, that sort of move could win on the day. He has been in strong form in the recent Tour of Austria, taking a win and two 2nd placings in a very good return for the Australian. IAM don't have a particular standout candidate for the win, and will most likely give freedom for Tanner to have a go.
Alejandro Valverde comes in as the deserved standout favourite for this race. He is just off a superb outing at the Tour, where he was just as strong at the end as any point throughout. He is very well suited to the course, with the overall amount of climbing, the tough finishing climb and the flat finish all playing into the experienced Spaniard's hands. He has a very strong team at his disposal as well, which contains a number of alternative winners like Nairo Quintana, Gorka Izaguirre and Giovanni Visconti. He won last season by following Rodriguez over the final climb, then surprising him with an attack on the descent, and maintaining his advantage into the finish line.
Joaquim Rodriguez is the other big contender here, and he will be very hard to beat here. He absolutely loves the steep climbs, and is arguably the best in the world at the steepest gradients. He flew up the final climb last year, and that was off a lot poorer form than he brings here. His form in the Tour was curious however, on the top of his game at stages, then well off the pace in others. I'll give him the benfit of the doubt here, as he really is a classics rider more than he is a Grand Tour one, and he should be primed for this race. He also packs a decent sprint, not up to Valverde's standard, but he may beat other riders.
Adam Yates was third over the final climb last year, and there's no reason why he can't do better this year, with natural improvement and his first Grand Tour behind him. A lot of riders comment on how much stronger they feel after their first Grand Tour in their legs, and it could be the case for Adam Yates here, who comes off decent form in the Tour, where he had a number of top 10 places on mountains stages, and stuck with Froome on Alpe d'Huez for quite a long time before cracking. At least in his early career I think he and his brother have better talents in the one-day races, they are very good climbers, but on the punchier side of things, and I would have thought that their best results would come in one-day races. Simon Yates is here as well, but I'm discounting his chances, as he has given interviews in recent days saying that he hasn't recovered well, and is sitting at about 75% of his normal condition.
Daniel Martin had an 'almost' sort of Tour, he managed two 2nd placings, and was in a decent placing on GC, despite losing 5 minutes on the cobbled stage. He then lost a lot of time during the middle stages after falling ill, and he managed only 39th on the overall in the end. He was clearly getting better at the end of the Tour, and the extra week's rest will be well received by him. He really is a classics rider, and a lot stronger on the steep, short finishes than the longer climbs. He isn't the best bike handler, and has the nasty habit of crashing in crucial races, but he has a decent sprint, and whilst he won't beat Valverde, he will probably take Rodriguez in a flat sprint. He hasn't raced San Sebastian at full condition before, but there's no reason to expect that he won't go well.
Thibaut Pinot couldn't be coming off better form from the TDF, winning the Alpe d'Huez stage and he'll be looking to convert that into a good result here. He hasn't been a great classics rider in the past, his best result in a classic is 12th in Giro Lombardia. He isn't bad on the steeper climbs, as he proved in the Tour, passing the top of the climb of Mende, which is a bit harder than the finale here, in first, only passed by Steven Cummings on the descent to the finish. I think he will have similar problems here, even if he is first to the top, he will struggle on the descent and he also doesn't have a particularly good sprint.
Romain Bardet finished just behind Pinot on the Mende stage, but I think he is a better candidate for the win here. He has a much better classics pedigree, he finished 6th at Liege this year, and has generally been in the mix in the one day races. He finished the TDF strongly, going in a series of breakaways to improve his GC position, from 36th after the first week to 10th at the finish. I think he is a strong candidate for an aggressive move, perhaps off the descent of the Jaizkibel, and looking to maintain that through to the line. That would have to be set up by a strong move from AG2R, trying to thin out the field, but Ag2R do have the strength in their team to decimate the field, and if they opt to do that then Bardet could be given a good shot at victory. He probably doesn't have the ability to go with the best on the final climb, but he could get a win with different tactics.
Alexis Vuillermoz is another AG2R rider that can possibly win. He is particularly strong on the steeper climbs, and he has achieved good results on the Mur de Huy, and then won the stage on the Mur de Bretagne, after making use of a tactical stalemate amongst the GC riders to escape. I'd keep him in reserve for the final climb, on the steep slopes where he excels, but his form is somewhat in the air, after he failed to feature after his impressive stage win earlier in the Tour. He doesn't really have the versatility or the outright climbing ability of the Spaniards here, but he could make use of his non-favouritism to surprise here.
Julian Alaphillipe is a superb young rider who has burst upon the scene this year, but he has apparently been been suffering in his recovery, and this race will be his first back, so I wouldn't think that he'll be in top form for this race.
Roman Kreuziger is a possible candidate for a win from an attacking move, he isn't in great form this season, but he did put in a good attack during Liege-Bastogne-Liege, where he could have taken the win and then sprinted to 4th any way. He has history at winning from long attacks, taking Amstel Gold from a similar move. He has the leadership of the squad, and whilst I doubt that he can match the favourites, another long range move could be in the offing for the Czech, who has won the race before in 2009.
Bauke Mollema finished 2nd in this race last year, but he was 5th over the climb. He comes off the Tour in better form than he did last year, and he will be well supported by a strong team here. Mollema is a combative rider who gives it a very good go in the classics, but I doubt that me has the punch to win on the final climb. He has aggressive instincts, and he could mount a long range move to challenge the main contenders, but that is more likely an instruction to be issued to secondary riders like Arredondo, Jungels or Zubeldia.
David Tanner will be my joker here, as he is often active in the classics races from a long way out, and if the race plays into his hands, that sort of move could win on the day. He has been in strong form in the recent Tour of Austria, taking a win and two 2nd placings in a very good return for the Australian. IAM don't have a particular standout candidate for the win, and will most likely give freedom for Tanner to have a go.
The Verdict
Bit of an obvious one, but I can't see many scenarios where Movistar don't control the race, and most of those end in Valverde victories. He is such a versatile rider, and he could win easily from a lot of different circumstances.
Bit of an obvious one, but I can't see many scenarios where Movistar don't control the race, and most of those end in Valverde victories. He is such a versatile rider, and he could win easily from a lot of different circumstances.