For the last race of his career, Cadel Evans lends his name to the first edition of this race around Geelong, incorporating part of the Great Ocean Road, before returning to Geelong for three circuits very similar to the 2010 World Championships course.
The Course
174 kms with 2,200 m of climbing on what won't be the hardest of one-day races but will nonetheless test the legs at this early stage in the season. The riders start out from Geelong, and will roll through Evans' hometown (at least his Australian one) in Barwon Heads, before heading down to Torquay. It is here that they will join the Great Ocean Road, though not for very long, and certainly not for the traditionally scenic parts. Bells Beach is the next stop, and that is were the course switches from flat to rolling terrain. There are number of climbs, the worst of which is a 1.7km effort at 5%, so there isn't anything too hard until the peleton makes it to Geelong.
174 kms with 2,200 m of climbing on what won't be the hardest of one-day races but will nonetheless test the legs at this early stage in the season. The riders start out from Geelong, and will roll through Evans' hometown (at least his Australian one) in Barwon Heads, before heading down to Torquay. It is here that they will join the Great Ocean Road, though not for very long, and certainly not for the traditionally scenic parts. Bells Beach is the next stop, and that is were the course switches from flat to rolling terrain. There are number of climbs, the worst of which is a 1.7km effort at 5%, so there isn't anything too hard until the peleton makes it to Geelong.
Arriving in Geelong, the riders will go through the Hyland Rd climb for the first time, and they'll also get their first look at the run-in to the finish. Their first of three circuits begins then, a flat 7.1 km stretch to the first climb, Challambra Crescent (1.0km at 10%) , followed by a sharp descent and then some rolling terrain before Hyland Street (0.7km at 5.5%) which crests with only 6.1 km to the finish line. The 2010 Worlds circuit was contested 11 times, compared to the current course's 3 so that obviously represents a severe reduction in attrition and climbing for the riders in this race.
The Tactics
I see this as a race primarily between the teams of the sprinters and the teams of the attackers. Of course, a lot of races come down to this, but this being a hilly race, we often see some of the climby sprinters' teams try to toughen the race up to dislodge the pure sprinters. However, there aren't any pure sprinters on the startlist, so it's only really a two-way battle for supremacy in tactical terms.
With the course set up being new, it's obviously harder to gauge the potential winners with the lack of past winners to go on, but it is notable that the 2010 World Champs was contested over much the same terrain for a longer time and still ended up in a sprint. I personally think the favouritism will be with the sprinting teams, and in normal circumstances, they would be called on to chase the breakaway/s, but with the emotion surrounding Evan's last race, I expect BMC to do most of the work to keep the escapees in check.
I can't imagine any of the strong teams really targeting the break as their major chance of winning (maybe Trek), and I doubt we'll see a dangerous break let go. So presuming that they are caught, it will come down to the sprinters hanging on as the teams of the attackers try to thin the field out by setting a high tempo up the climbs and attacking to force the sprinters' teams to chase. The sprinters will have to be wary that a decent sized break of the right composition doesn't get a big advantage in the early laps.
When it comes down to it though, the big moves will be made in the final lap as it is too far to hold off a concerted chase by the main field on previous laps. What will be interesting is to see how the attacks will be launched. The obvious staging point is Challambra, which is the toughest climb, but it is still 12 kms to go from the peak to the finish. What might occur is that one, or maybe a combination of teams opts to sacrifice riders by setting a very high tempo up Challambra and trying to put as many riders as possible into difficulty, before sending an attack away in the rolling section after, or on the Hyland Street climb. Both options have their strengths and weaknesses. By forcing the tempo you aren't making the other teams chase and use their energy, or by attacking earlier, you are asking more of the rider to build up a significant gap.
The main problem for any attackers staying away is the sheer number of teams that want to bring it down to a sprint. In the end I can only see maybe a 4-5 person group (at most) gaining an advantage on the climbs, and they will be chased by about 5-6 teams of sprinters who have a good chance of winning. That is what for me will decide this race, and I think a sprint from a reduced bunch is the most likely scenario.
I see this as a race primarily between the teams of the sprinters and the teams of the attackers. Of course, a lot of races come down to this, but this being a hilly race, we often see some of the climby sprinters' teams try to toughen the race up to dislodge the pure sprinters. However, there aren't any pure sprinters on the startlist, so it's only really a two-way battle for supremacy in tactical terms.
With the course set up being new, it's obviously harder to gauge the potential winners with the lack of past winners to go on, but it is notable that the 2010 World Champs was contested over much the same terrain for a longer time and still ended up in a sprint. I personally think the favouritism will be with the sprinting teams, and in normal circumstances, they would be called on to chase the breakaway/s, but with the emotion surrounding Evan's last race, I expect BMC to do most of the work to keep the escapees in check.
I can't imagine any of the strong teams really targeting the break as their major chance of winning (maybe Trek), and I doubt we'll see a dangerous break let go. So presuming that they are caught, it will come down to the sprinters hanging on as the teams of the attackers try to thin the field out by setting a high tempo up the climbs and attacking to force the sprinters' teams to chase. The sprinters will have to be wary that a decent sized break of the right composition doesn't get a big advantage in the early laps.
When it comes down to it though, the big moves will be made in the final lap as it is too far to hold off a concerted chase by the main field on previous laps. What will be interesting is to see how the attacks will be launched. The obvious staging point is Challambra, which is the toughest climb, but it is still 12 kms to go from the peak to the finish. What might occur is that one, or maybe a combination of teams opts to sacrifice riders by setting a very high tempo up Challambra and trying to put as many riders as possible into difficulty, before sending an attack away in the rolling section after, or on the Hyland Street climb. Both options have their strengths and weaknesses. By forcing the tempo you aren't making the other teams chase and use their energy, or by attacking earlier, you are asking more of the rider to build up a significant gap.
The main problem for any attackers staying away is the sheer number of teams that want to bring it down to a sprint. In the end I can only see maybe a 4-5 person group (at most) gaining an advantage on the climbs, and they will be chased by about 5-6 teams of sprinters who have a good chance of winning. That is what for me will decide this race, and I think a sprint from a reduced bunch is the most likely scenario.
The Contenders
Attackers:
Cadel Evans - Evans has history with this circuit (above). His attack during the 2010 Worlds looked the most likely of any of the moves to stay away, and he wasn't too far away from an unlikely defence of the rainbow jersey. This course is easier with less climbing, and won't particularly suit Cadel, but he is in very good form and no doubt highly motivated.
Richie Porte - Porte showed himself to be the strongest on the climbs at the Tour Down Under, but this is closer to classics-style racing, something that he's never excelled at. Again, he is very strong at the moment, and we'll see an attack from him at some point.
Simon Clarke - An attack from Clarke, or his equivalent at other teams (Elmiger, Pantano, De La Cruz), is about the only way I see the break staying away, as at least that will reduce the firepower of those behind chasing, as riders refuse to chase down their own teammate. Clarke in particular has a decent shot at a win, as he possesses quite a potent sprint.
Climby Sprinters:
Caleb Ewan - It would be fitting if a new generation rider with a very similar name won the innagural Cadel Evans race, and it could well happen with Orica's Ewan. Very nice terrain for him, he handles short climbs like these well, and can produce a powerful sprint even after tough days in the saddle.
Gianni Meersman - Won't be troubled overly by the hills, is very fast and in pretty good form. Struggled with his positioning in some of the TDU sprints, but looks to be quite quick. Should get good support from his strong EQS team.
Steele Von Hoff - Climbs, sprints and in good form. Arguably in better form than Meersman, but doesn't have the same strength for the leadout.
Heinrich Haussler - Not quite the climber that these others are, and is one that could be dislodged by some tough pace-setting. He'll be one of the fastest at the finish if he does make it though.
Other chances include Matthew Goss, Tyler Farrar and Alexiy Tsatevich.
The Verdict:
Gianni Meersman looks to be the one that will be in the best position to win should it come down to a sprint as expected. No one else has the strength of leadout that Meersman has at his disposal and this terrain is his bread and butter.
Attackers:
Cadel Evans - Evans has history with this circuit (above). His attack during the 2010 Worlds looked the most likely of any of the moves to stay away, and he wasn't too far away from an unlikely defence of the rainbow jersey. This course is easier with less climbing, and won't particularly suit Cadel, but he is in very good form and no doubt highly motivated.
Richie Porte - Porte showed himself to be the strongest on the climbs at the Tour Down Under, but this is closer to classics-style racing, something that he's never excelled at. Again, he is very strong at the moment, and we'll see an attack from him at some point.
Simon Clarke - An attack from Clarke, or his equivalent at other teams (Elmiger, Pantano, De La Cruz), is about the only way I see the break staying away, as at least that will reduce the firepower of those behind chasing, as riders refuse to chase down their own teammate. Clarke in particular has a decent shot at a win, as he possesses quite a potent sprint.
Climby Sprinters:
Caleb Ewan - It would be fitting if a new generation rider with a very similar name won the innagural Cadel Evans race, and it could well happen with Orica's Ewan. Very nice terrain for him, he handles short climbs like these well, and can produce a powerful sprint even after tough days in the saddle.
Gianni Meersman - Won't be troubled overly by the hills, is very fast and in pretty good form. Struggled with his positioning in some of the TDU sprints, but looks to be quite quick. Should get good support from his strong EQS team.
Steele Von Hoff - Climbs, sprints and in good form. Arguably in better form than Meersman, but doesn't have the same strength for the leadout.
Heinrich Haussler - Not quite the climber that these others are, and is one that could be dislodged by some tough pace-setting. He'll be one of the fastest at the finish if he does make it though.
Other chances include Matthew Goss, Tyler Farrar and Alexiy Tsatevich.
The Verdict:
Gianni Meersman looks to be the one that will be in the best position to win should it come down to a sprint as expected. No one else has the strength of leadout that Meersman has at his disposal and this terrain is his bread and butter.