Surely there are other races named after a beer, but I can't think of any at the moment. Simon Gerrans surprised many with his tee-totalling sip on the podium last year, but his commitment to post-race nutrition paid off with a later victory in LBL. Phillipe Gilbert is no stranger to the winner's pint, and he will be trying for his 4th celebratory podium skull.
The Course
The Netherlands is one of the flattest countries in the world, which is perhaps why they don't have a great deal of big races in their country. Southern Limburg, which borders the Flanders region, is the exception to the rule, and makes up for the dull terrain elsewhere, by being a confusing thatchwork or mazy, thin roads that wind up short, steep hills. There is little respite on the whole course, and also absent is the normal 100 kms of flat roads to start the race, which most classics have.
It would take too long to list them here, plus there aren't one or two climbs which are particularly decisive because of their toughness, the only reason the Cauberg is of importance is because of its proximity to the finish line. In the past, the finish has been at the top of the Cauberg, but in recent seasons they've pushed it back from the top, and on Sunday there will still be 1.8 kms to go from the top. This has meant that a wider range of contenders come into the picture, as a good sprint is essential if coming to the line with company, and the 1.8 kms gives the riders some time to catch any escapees. The Cauberg (1.2 kms, 5.8%) is the toughest test in cycling, but the way that the riders attack it makes it an extremely stern test, and the gaps are often very big by the time they reach the top. It is hardest on the early slopes, with the first few hundred metres hitting 12% in parts, before it grows shallower towards the peak.
The weather should be mild, at about 13C, with very little wind, which will mean the race should be a little easier than normal.
The Netherlands is one of the flattest countries in the world, which is perhaps why they don't have a great deal of big races in their country. Southern Limburg, which borders the Flanders region, is the exception to the rule, and makes up for the dull terrain elsewhere, by being a confusing thatchwork or mazy, thin roads that wind up short, steep hills. There is little respite on the whole course, and also absent is the normal 100 kms of flat roads to start the race, which most classics have.
It would take too long to list them here, plus there aren't one or two climbs which are particularly decisive because of their toughness, the only reason the Cauberg is of importance is because of its proximity to the finish line. In the past, the finish has been at the top of the Cauberg, but in recent seasons they've pushed it back from the top, and on Sunday there will still be 1.8 kms to go from the top. This has meant that a wider range of contenders come into the picture, as a good sprint is essential if coming to the line with company, and the 1.8 kms gives the riders some time to catch any escapees. The Cauberg (1.2 kms, 5.8%) is the toughest test in cycling, but the way that the riders attack it makes it an extremely stern test, and the gaps are often very big by the time they reach the top. It is hardest on the early slopes, with the first few hundred metres hitting 12% in parts, before it grows shallower towards the peak.
The weather should be mild, at about 13C, with very little wind, which will mean the race should be a little easier than normal.
The Tactics
The difficulty of the course is in the constant concentration that needs to be maintained throughout the day by the favourites. The road is generally very narrow, giving riders little opportunity to pass, and any crashes often block the entire road. In addition, the front riders are able to negotiate the corners quicker, whilst the back of the peleton often sluggishly squeezes through the tighter bends and then has to sprint to catch up. It is thus very important to ride good position for the whole day, mostly to save energy and not be caught out when a dangerous move goes away.
Realistically, there aren't many contenders on a day like this, if the race comes to the bottom of the Cauberg all together, probably BMC, Greenedge, Etixx-Quickstep and Movistar will be the main teams trying to make sure this happens, whilst other squads will be attacking and trying to ensure the it isn't just a battle the final time up the Cauberg. The terrain does make it quite hard to maintain a chase, and a cooperating move can go well here, and as recently as 2013, Roman Kreuziger won from such a move, although maybe that wouldn't have been the case it the teams behind were willing to help a Sagan-led Cannondale with the chase. So there is quite a lot of incentive for teams to be active in the moves that go, if only so that their team doesn't have the burden of chasing, and can save the rest of their riders for later.
Regardless of where the breakaway is, the peleton will drive it very hard on the descent which leads into the Cauberg, and from there, the race explodes, with tiring riders blowing and dropping out the back, whilst the Gilberts and Valverdes power away. Once at the top there is little time for reassessing, if there's a lone rider away, he has to go full gas into the finish, but there are often the politics of who has the responsibility to do the chasing behind. Normally the better sprinter has to do the majority of the work, which will probably disadvantage a rider like Michael Matthews, whom no one will want to take to the line with them, and probably won't have any teammates to help at this point.
The difficulty of the course is in the constant concentration that needs to be maintained throughout the day by the favourites. The road is generally very narrow, giving riders little opportunity to pass, and any crashes often block the entire road. In addition, the front riders are able to negotiate the corners quicker, whilst the back of the peleton often sluggishly squeezes through the tighter bends and then has to sprint to catch up. It is thus very important to ride good position for the whole day, mostly to save energy and not be caught out when a dangerous move goes away.
Realistically, there aren't many contenders on a day like this, if the race comes to the bottom of the Cauberg all together, probably BMC, Greenedge, Etixx-Quickstep and Movistar will be the main teams trying to make sure this happens, whilst other squads will be attacking and trying to ensure the it isn't just a battle the final time up the Cauberg. The terrain does make it quite hard to maintain a chase, and a cooperating move can go well here, and as recently as 2013, Roman Kreuziger won from such a move, although maybe that wouldn't have been the case it the teams behind were willing to help a Sagan-led Cannondale with the chase. So there is quite a lot of incentive for teams to be active in the moves that go, if only so that their team doesn't have the burden of chasing, and can save the rest of their riders for later.
Regardless of where the breakaway is, the peleton will drive it very hard on the descent which leads into the Cauberg, and from there, the race explodes, with tiring riders blowing and dropping out the back, whilst the Gilberts and Valverdes power away. Once at the top there is little time for reassessing, if there's a lone rider away, he has to go full gas into the finish, but there are often the politics of who has the responsibility to do the chasing behind. Normally the better sprinter has to do the majority of the work, which will probably disadvantage a rider like Michael Matthews, whom no one will want to take to the line with them, and probably won't have any teammates to help at this point.
The Contenders
As I said above, if it comes down to the Cauberg, there are only a handful of contenders to win it, probably a few more from an attacking move. Explosive power on the uphills is a prerequisite here, good endurance another must, positioning abilities get you bonus points and a decent sprint is always handy.
Phillipe Gilbert is a three-time winner of this race, and also won the World Championships when they were held here. Noone is better at climbing the Cauberg than this man, and he is regularly the first up, either alone, or with a small group. His form this year is nothing amazing, but he looked very good at Brabantse Pijl, only having Ben Hermans already up the road prevented him from pressing his attack when he established a gap on Matthews and Gallopin.
Speaking of, Michael Matthews is in career-best form and looks on the up-and-up. Having taken stages at Grand Tours and podiumed at a Monument, the next step for him is to take a win in a big classic, and Amstel Gold is probably the one most suited to his abilities. He has proven this season that he get over the shorter climbs with the best, and at Pijl, he had to do everything for himself with only a weakened OGE team, closing down gaps, climbing with the best, and then smashing everyone in the sprint (bar Hermans who was up the road already). He will suffer from being the one man that no one will want to work with, and he probably isn't quite on the level of some of the others in climbing ability. He will have a better team than at Pijl however, so it is possible that he has Albasini, Weening or Gerrans available to help chase at the top of the climb.
Alejandro Valverde is the perennial contender at every classic he attends, and Sunday will be no different for the Spaniard. He has all the right attributes to win the race, that's for sure, but he has been unlucky in the past, finishing 4th and 2nd in the last two editions. This year he has been in very good form, but not the scintillating early season returns of last year. Maybe this is a good thing, as he will be able to hit a higher peak here, or maybe he is simply a little down on last year. Regardless he is a formidable cyclist who should always be respected on this sort of finish. He could well also be the fastest sprinter to make it to the top in contention with the exception of Matthews, and he will be happy for it to go to a sprint.
Michal Kwiatkowski will also be happy enough to see it end in a sprint, and may even fancy himself to be quicker than the ageing Spaniard. The world champion is perfectly built for the hilly classics, combining great endurance, explosiveness on the climbs and a fast sprint into what might be one of the best classics riders of his generation. He is getting better as well, his results show a step up on last year, despite a conscious scaling back of his program to make him more fresh for his Ardennes targets. He should come in with top form here, and could well be one of the first over the Cauberg.
Tom Dumoulin is a more intriguing rider, as he is clearly a time-trial specialist, but he is also capable of short, sharp power which is required in the classics. He's mainly showed this in races like the Eneco Tour and the Canadian classics, but there is no reason he couldn't show up and mix it up with the best on the Cauberg. He is also pretty quick in a sprint, not to match Valverde or Kwiatkowski, but he may be able to beat Gilbert.
Jelle Vanendert took a surprising second last year, after he caught back on to an arguing second group on the road before simply riding past them and onto the second step of the podium. Vanendert has a pretty interesting record, he does next to nothing in terms of results the rest of the year, but during the classics he is consistently right up there with the favourites. With that sort of record, it would be silly to expect him to be far off the pace here, and he is one of the few that I think could summit the Cauberg by himself. He suffers from poor positioning however, and may not even be the leader of his team in the race, but he clearly has a special affinity for the Ardennes classics so it would be a surprise to not see him involved in the action.
Finally Dan Martin is the last of the riders that I can see winning in an all-together situation. Martin is all class, at least whilst he is on his bike, he can handle the pace on the short climbs, the endurance on the long and has a good deal of race savvy to know when to make the move. He has picked up the nasty habit of crashing in his target races however, last year he crashed out of Amstel Gold, before doing the same in LBL with the finish line in sight and in the Giro TTT. He also rides very poor position in the pack, and that matters in a race like Amstel Gold, where he will waste a lot of energy if he has to make up ground from behind, Presuming he can get over these issues, Martin is one of the best riders in the world over this sort of terrain, and he'll be a protagonist in the finish.
Now for a few riders that could well go from distance, and perhaps more importantly will be allowed to go in a move. Pieter Weening seems to make an attack in this race every year, perhaps because it is the only race held in his local area, and he doesn't really have a chance on the final time up the Cauberg. He was part of the group Kreuziger's winning move was launched from in 2013 and then was part of the main move in 2014 as well. Indeed it would be a surprise if Weening didn't make an appearance at the head of affairs at some stage. To boot he is normally very strong during this part of the season, and was a major factor in Gerrans LBL win last year. Giampaolo Caruso is also a perennial attacker in Amstel, and was unlucky not to win LBL last year after just being swept up in the final 100 m. He doesn't have the explosive power that others boast, but he is very strong, aggressive and is a very good climber. Greg Van Avermaet may also be given some space to make a bid for glory, and as anyone who watched the cobbled classics knows, he is in formidable form at the moment. He will obviously be tired from the cobbles, but he has proved in the past that he can back up, with a 7th in LBL and a 16th in Amstel. If he's given too much space in a breakaway, it could be gameover for the peleton. Tim Wellens is probably the third weapon in Lotto-Soudal's arsenal and he'll have the freedom to try his luck from range by joining any likely moves, as he did last year. He is a bright young talent in the classics rank, as he proved last year by taking out the Eneco Tour with a bold attack from a long way out. His form at the moment is good as well, taking 2nd in the hardest stage of the Pais Vasco out of a 30 strong breakaway. Julian Alaphillipe is another young rider who might benefit from his relative anonymity in an attack here. He was the only one able to follow Gilbert's attack in Brabantse Pijl, and he has been riding well in the climby sprint races so far this season.
The Verdict
I'm getting a bit tired of constantly picking Michal Kwiatkowski for everything, but he again possesses all the qualities to do well here. I think he'll likely be in the box seat in a sprint situation, as he doesn't have the tag of being the fastest guy, but is still nonetheless very quick. He has good legs at the moment and all his good form has been building towards this week in the Ardennes.
As I said above, if it comes down to the Cauberg, there are only a handful of contenders to win it, probably a few more from an attacking move. Explosive power on the uphills is a prerequisite here, good endurance another must, positioning abilities get you bonus points and a decent sprint is always handy.
Phillipe Gilbert is a three-time winner of this race, and also won the World Championships when they were held here. Noone is better at climbing the Cauberg than this man, and he is regularly the first up, either alone, or with a small group. His form this year is nothing amazing, but he looked very good at Brabantse Pijl, only having Ben Hermans already up the road prevented him from pressing his attack when he established a gap on Matthews and Gallopin.
Speaking of, Michael Matthews is in career-best form and looks on the up-and-up. Having taken stages at Grand Tours and podiumed at a Monument, the next step for him is to take a win in a big classic, and Amstel Gold is probably the one most suited to his abilities. He has proven this season that he get over the shorter climbs with the best, and at Pijl, he had to do everything for himself with only a weakened OGE team, closing down gaps, climbing with the best, and then smashing everyone in the sprint (bar Hermans who was up the road already). He will suffer from being the one man that no one will want to work with, and he probably isn't quite on the level of some of the others in climbing ability. He will have a better team than at Pijl however, so it is possible that he has Albasini, Weening or Gerrans available to help chase at the top of the climb.
Alejandro Valverde is the perennial contender at every classic he attends, and Sunday will be no different for the Spaniard. He has all the right attributes to win the race, that's for sure, but he has been unlucky in the past, finishing 4th and 2nd in the last two editions. This year he has been in very good form, but not the scintillating early season returns of last year. Maybe this is a good thing, as he will be able to hit a higher peak here, or maybe he is simply a little down on last year. Regardless he is a formidable cyclist who should always be respected on this sort of finish. He could well also be the fastest sprinter to make it to the top in contention with the exception of Matthews, and he will be happy for it to go to a sprint.
Michal Kwiatkowski will also be happy enough to see it end in a sprint, and may even fancy himself to be quicker than the ageing Spaniard. The world champion is perfectly built for the hilly classics, combining great endurance, explosiveness on the climbs and a fast sprint into what might be one of the best classics riders of his generation. He is getting better as well, his results show a step up on last year, despite a conscious scaling back of his program to make him more fresh for his Ardennes targets. He should come in with top form here, and could well be one of the first over the Cauberg.
Tom Dumoulin is a more intriguing rider, as he is clearly a time-trial specialist, but he is also capable of short, sharp power which is required in the classics. He's mainly showed this in races like the Eneco Tour and the Canadian classics, but there is no reason he couldn't show up and mix it up with the best on the Cauberg. He is also pretty quick in a sprint, not to match Valverde or Kwiatkowski, but he may be able to beat Gilbert.
Jelle Vanendert took a surprising second last year, after he caught back on to an arguing second group on the road before simply riding past them and onto the second step of the podium. Vanendert has a pretty interesting record, he does next to nothing in terms of results the rest of the year, but during the classics he is consistently right up there with the favourites. With that sort of record, it would be silly to expect him to be far off the pace here, and he is one of the few that I think could summit the Cauberg by himself. He suffers from poor positioning however, and may not even be the leader of his team in the race, but he clearly has a special affinity for the Ardennes classics so it would be a surprise to not see him involved in the action.
Finally Dan Martin is the last of the riders that I can see winning in an all-together situation. Martin is all class, at least whilst he is on his bike, he can handle the pace on the short climbs, the endurance on the long and has a good deal of race savvy to know when to make the move. He has picked up the nasty habit of crashing in his target races however, last year he crashed out of Amstel Gold, before doing the same in LBL with the finish line in sight and in the Giro TTT. He also rides very poor position in the pack, and that matters in a race like Amstel Gold, where he will waste a lot of energy if he has to make up ground from behind, Presuming he can get over these issues, Martin is one of the best riders in the world over this sort of terrain, and he'll be a protagonist in the finish.
Now for a few riders that could well go from distance, and perhaps more importantly will be allowed to go in a move. Pieter Weening seems to make an attack in this race every year, perhaps because it is the only race held in his local area, and he doesn't really have a chance on the final time up the Cauberg. He was part of the group Kreuziger's winning move was launched from in 2013 and then was part of the main move in 2014 as well. Indeed it would be a surprise if Weening didn't make an appearance at the head of affairs at some stage. To boot he is normally very strong during this part of the season, and was a major factor in Gerrans LBL win last year. Giampaolo Caruso is also a perennial attacker in Amstel, and was unlucky not to win LBL last year after just being swept up in the final 100 m. He doesn't have the explosive power that others boast, but he is very strong, aggressive and is a very good climber. Greg Van Avermaet may also be given some space to make a bid for glory, and as anyone who watched the cobbled classics knows, he is in formidable form at the moment. He will obviously be tired from the cobbles, but he has proved in the past that he can back up, with a 7th in LBL and a 16th in Amstel. If he's given too much space in a breakaway, it could be gameover for the peleton. Tim Wellens is probably the third weapon in Lotto-Soudal's arsenal and he'll have the freedom to try his luck from range by joining any likely moves, as he did last year. He is a bright young talent in the classics rank, as he proved last year by taking out the Eneco Tour with a bold attack from a long way out. His form at the moment is good as well, taking 2nd in the hardest stage of the Pais Vasco out of a 30 strong breakaway. Julian Alaphillipe is another young rider who might benefit from his relative anonymity in an attack here. He was the only one able to follow Gilbert's attack in Brabantse Pijl, and he has been riding well in the climby sprint races so far this season.
The Verdict
I'm getting a bit tired of constantly picking Michal Kwiatkowski for everything, but he again possesses all the qualities to do well here. I think he'll likely be in the box seat in a sprint situation, as he doesn't have the tag of being the fastest guy, but is still nonetheless very quick. He has good legs at the moment and all his good form has been building towards this week in the Ardennes.