It's the last big hurdle for Tom Dumoulin, he has overcome everything that has been thrown at him so far, but on the last stage where his competitors can make up time, they will throw everything they have at the big Dutchman in a last ditch attempt to snatch the red jersey from his shoulders. It will certainly be compelling viewing and isn't a good night to go to bed early.
The Course
The stage takes the peleton over 175.8km from San Lorenzo de El Escorial to Cercedilla. The start and finish are located quite close together, and this is an out and back course, which means that a few of the climbs will be tackled from both sides during the race. The Puerto de Navarcerrano (9.4 km, 6.6%) is first up. After a relatively easy start, the gradient stays around 8-9% for most of the time before it briefly reaches a maximum of 11.25% just before the top. Then there is a short flat section before the riders descend to the foot of the Puerto de la Morcuera (11.5km, 5.4%). It’s quite a steady climb with gradients of 6-8% until a short descent near the summit leads to the final 1.5km that have gradients of 4-6%.
The next climb is the Puerto de la Morcuera again, but this time from the opposite side. It is now a 10.4km ascent with an average gradient of 6.6%. It is very regular with a gradient of 6-7% for most of the time, with a peak of 9.5% in the second half. It's one of the harder climbs of the day, and could be the spot for a long-range attack to be launched. The peak comes with 48.8km to go and a descent immediately follows to a flat section before the peleton will ride back up the Puerto de Navacerrada, albeit from the other direction. From this side, it is known as the Puerto de Cotos (11 km, 5.4%). The first 4km are relatively easy and from there it is very regular at 6-7%, with a peak of 8.5% at the top.
The summit is located 17.8km from the finish and is followed by a non-technical descent to the finish line. The exception is the final kilometre, which is uphill at about 3% with some sharp turns in the finale.
The stage takes the peleton over 175.8km from San Lorenzo de El Escorial to Cercedilla. The start and finish are located quite close together, and this is an out and back course, which means that a few of the climbs will be tackled from both sides during the race. The Puerto de Navarcerrano (9.4 km, 6.6%) is first up. After a relatively easy start, the gradient stays around 8-9% for most of the time before it briefly reaches a maximum of 11.25% just before the top. Then there is a short flat section before the riders descend to the foot of the Puerto de la Morcuera (11.5km, 5.4%). It’s quite a steady climb with gradients of 6-8% until a short descent near the summit leads to the final 1.5km that have gradients of 4-6%.
The next climb is the Puerto de la Morcuera again, but this time from the opposite side. It is now a 10.4km ascent with an average gradient of 6.6%. It is very regular with a gradient of 6-7% for most of the time, with a peak of 9.5% in the second half. It's one of the harder climbs of the day, and could be the spot for a long-range attack to be launched. The peak comes with 48.8km to go and a descent immediately follows to a flat section before the peleton will ride back up the Puerto de Navacerrada, albeit from the other direction. From this side, it is known as the Puerto de Cotos (11 km, 5.4%). The first 4km are relatively easy and from there it is very regular at 6-7%, with a peak of 8.5% at the top.
The summit is located 17.8km from the finish and is followed by a non-technical descent to the finish line. The exception is the final kilometre, which is uphill at about 3% with some sharp turns in the finale.
The Tactics
In terms of the battle for red, Tom Dumoulin is just going to sit on Fabio Aru's wheel all day, and Astana are going to eliminate all of Giant-Alpecin's domestiques, and then try and let Aru escape. I imagine that they will try and put a strong rider in the breakaway to assist Aru if he does manage to get free, but they may just decide to keep all their firepower together to set as high a pace as possible. It will come down to a slog out between the two, probably on the final two climbs, with attacks and counterattacks from a desperate Aru, but the Dutchman has shown that he has the strength to counter the Italian's moves at this stage of the race.
What may complicate things will be the riding of the other GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez and his team director have been making comments to the effect that 'Purito' could well try an attack from afar, and if that move gains time and starts to threaten Dumoulin's jersey, the Dutchman may have to start taking on the pace-making duties, which may allow Aru to take advantage. On the other hand, Dumoulin could well find allies amongst his erstwhile foes, as they will all be looking to defend their individual GC positions, and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably be motivated to chase down Rodriguez or a Movistar attack. Likewise, Movistar will chase Majka, Chaves and Nieve, and Meintjes and Pozzovivo will lend assistance in nullifying each other's moves, as they are close on GC. All these little battles could help out Dumoulin significantly, as it will take the burden off his shoulders if an attack goes. On the other hand, if an attack goes with the right composition, say Rodriguez, Majka and Quintana, then Dumoulin won't have any help, and will have to look to Astana for assistance.
Of course there are a thousand and one scenarios, but that's one which would be great to see play out, and would give a real chance of a rider to come from nowhere to win the race. In terms of the stage battle, that will be of secondary concern for most of the GC riders, but for the climbers slightly lower down, they will be able to follow wheels, as the onus will be on the higher placed riders to drive the move, and they can save up energy and use it to take the stage win. Riders like Pozzovivo, Chaves and Nieve will be in a good tactical spot if they can latch onto a successful move.
In terms of the battle for red, Tom Dumoulin is just going to sit on Fabio Aru's wheel all day, and Astana are going to eliminate all of Giant-Alpecin's domestiques, and then try and let Aru escape. I imagine that they will try and put a strong rider in the breakaway to assist Aru if he does manage to get free, but they may just decide to keep all their firepower together to set as high a pace as possible. It will come down to a slog out between the two, probably on the final two climbs, with attacks and counterattacks from a desperate Aru, but the Dutchman has shown that he has the strength to counter the Italian's moves at this stage of the race.
What may complicate things will be the riding of the other GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez and his team director have been making comments to the effect that 'Purito' could well try an attack from afar, and if that move gains time and starts to threaten Dumoulin's jersey, the Dutchman may have to start taking on the pace-making duties, which may allow Aru to take advantage. On the other hand, Dumoulin could well find allies amongst his erstwhile foes, as they will all be looking to defend their individual GC positions, and Tinkoff-Saxo will probably be motivated to chase down Rodriguez or a Movistar attack. Likewise, Movistar will chase Majka, Chaves and Nieve, and Meintjes and Pozzovivo will lend assistance in nullifying each other's moves, as they are close on GC. All these little battles could help out Dumoulin significantly, as it will take the burden off his shoulders if an attack goes. On the other hand, if an attack goes with the right composition, say Rodriguez, Majka and Quintana, then Dumoulin won't have any help, and will have to look to Astana for assistance.
Of course there are a thousand and one scenarios, but that's one which would be great to see play out, and would give a real chance of a rider to come from nowhere to win the race. In terms of the stage battle, that will be of secondary concern for most of the GC riders, but for the climbers slightly lower down, they will be able to follow wheels, as the onus will be on the higher placed riders to drive the move, and they can save up energy and use it to take the stage win. Riders like Pozzovivo, Chaves and Nieve will be in a good tactical spot if they can latch onto a successful move.
The Contenders
What has been remarkable about this Vuelta is how even the race has been over the three weeks, and even now there is only 4.19 between 1st and 9th on GC. It appears to be coming down to how each rider feels on the day, and how the tactics play out on the crucial points of the race. With that in mind, I'll say that the riders slightly down on the GC will have a better chance on those only hunting for time here, as they won't be as closely marked, or be asked to contribute to the pace-setting as much.
Domenico Pozzovivo hasn't had the best of races, after looking in good form coming in, he has lost time consistently across the three weeks of racing. He has appeared to be a bit stronger in recent stages, and it might be that he has one special effort left in him. He will be in a good tactical position if he can latch onto an attack by a rider higher than him on GC, and there are quite a few of those with his current position of 11th, and he'll only really be marked by Louis Meintjes. If he has recovered his proper legs then he is a top-tier climber who will hard to hold out.
Esteban Chaves currently sits sandwiched in the middle of the GC traffic jam in 7th. He could potentially move up to 4th with a good ride, or drop as low as 9th. He has been climbing strongly throughout the Vuelta, but his best results came on the shallower climbs of the first week, and the final climb here has a very similar profile to those climbs. If he can read the race correctly and join any dangerous moves then he will be the favourite to take the win on this sort of climb.
Alejandro Valverde isn't in the best of form, but evidently no one has told him that! He was attacking like a madman in the final kilometres of the stage yesterday, even gaining a little gap at one stage, only to be dragged back on the cobbled climb, but then he jumped away with a sprightly sprint to lead the main group of GC men home. He is really a great rider to watch, and it would be no surprise if he rolled the dice with an early attack here. He would prefer the race to be a bit more difficult than this but he'll make do and this sort of ambitious plan to start a stage is right up his alley.
Mikel Nieve is in the good tactical position of being last. Well, not last but he is 9th, with Meintjes and Pozzovivo well behind, so he has nothing to lose. Any moves he makes will be allowed, as long as he has a Movistar rider with him, and he can leverage that to take a stage win, as both the Movistar riders are over a minute ahead of him and have a lot more to gain than the Team Sky rider. He has been riding really well in the mountains, but he been getting dropped consistently in the last kilometre of the summit finishes, as he has very little explosive power to match the others when they sprint. Today's stage should be more one of attrition, which will definitely suit Nieve better, but he will have to find some way of dropping his company before the finish, as he really cannot sprint to save his life.
What has been remarkable about this Vuelta is how even the race has been over the three weeks, and even now there is only 4.19 between 1st and 9th on GC. It appears to be coming down to how each rider feels on the day, and how the tactics play out on the crucial points of the race. With that in mind, I'll say that the riders slightly down on the GC will have a better chance on those only hunting for time here, as they won't be as closely marked, or be asked to contribute to the pace-setting as much.
Domenico Pozzovivo hasn't had the best of races, after looking in good form coming in, he has lost time consistently across the three weeks of racing. He has appeared to be a bit stronger in recent stages, and it might be that he has one special effort left in him. He will be in a good tactical position if he can latch onto an attack by a rider higher than him on GC, and there are quite a few of those with his current position of 11th, and he'll only really be marked by Louis Meintjes. If he has recovered his proper legs then he is a top-tier climber who will hard to hold out.
Esteban Chaves currently sits sandwiched in the middle of the GC traffic jam in 7th. He could potentially move up to 4th with a good ride, or drop as low as 9th. He has been climbing strongly throughout the Vuelta, but his best results came on the shallower climbs of the first week, and the final climb here has a very similar profile to those climbs. If he can read the race correctly and join any dangerous moves then he will be the favourite to take the win on this sort of climb.
Alejandro Valverde isn't in the best of form, but evidently no one has told him that! He was attacking like a madman in the final kilometres of the stage yesterday, even gaining a little gap at one stage, only to be dragged back on the cobbled climb, but then he jumped away with a sprightly sprint to lead the main group of GC men home. He is really a great rider to watch, and it would be no surprise if he rolled the dice with an early attack here. He would prefer the race to be a bit more difficult than this but he'll make do and this sort of ambitious plan to start a stage is right up his alley.
Mikel Nieve is in the good tactical position of being last. Well, not last but he is 9th, with Meintjes and Pozzovivo well behind, so he has nothing to lose. Any moves he makes will be allowed, as long as he has a Movistar rider with him, and he can leverage that to take a stage win, as both the Movistar riders are over a minute ahead of him and have a lot more to gain than the Team Sky rider. He has been riding really well in the mountains, but he been getting dropped consistently in the last kilometre of the summit finishes, as he has very little explosive power to match the others when they sprint. Today's stage should be more one of attrition, which will definitely suit Nieve better, but he will have to find some way of dropping his company before the finish, as he really cannot sprint to save his life.
The Verdict
I'm plumping for an Esteban Chaves win here, he's been great all race, with the exception of the one time he cracked on Stage 9, and he will be in a good tactical position here if he makes the right move. He has proven that he has the explosive power on the shallower gradient climbs like this final one is and that could be his springboard for victory.
I'm plumping for an Esteban Chaves win here, he's been great all race, with the exception of the one time he cracked on Stage 9, and he will be in a good tactical position here if he makes the right move. He has proven that he has the explosive power on the shallower gradient climbs like this final one is and that could be his springboard for victory.