Two superb riders were the talk of the race after the TT yesterday, Tom Dumoulin and Fabio Aru, one who trounced the field and took the red jersey, the other who hung on to keep the race leader's advantage to a miserly 3 seconds. That sets things up for a frenetic last three stages, before the Madrid processional, with no summit finishes on the agenda, but quite a bit of climbing nonetheless.
The Course
Stage 18 is going to be one of the easier ones for Dumoulin to protect his lead, with not much climbing in the early part of the stage, which should mean that most his team will be present to help him on the final climb. At 204 kilometres, it is a long one, with the first 70 kilometres of the course being essentially flat, before the first categorised climbs of the day. The first is the Alto Santibanez de Ayllon (7.8 km, 4%) and is stapled together with the Alto del Campanario (6.5 km, 3.9%). Neither are particularly tough, and it is probable that most of the peleton will get over these, and importantly most of Giant-Alpecin will make it to defend their leader's jersey.
The next 80 kilometres is rolling terrain, with quite a lot of short, easy climbs, followed by gradual descents. This is classic breakaway terrain, as a small group is better suited to maintaining cohesion over this sort of challenging route. The final climb is a category 1, but it is perhaps the easiest category 1 of the race, the Puerto del la Quesera (10 km, 5.2%) is shallow at the start, and then averages around 6% to the summit, which is 13 kilometres from the finish. The descent is straightforward and non-technical, and it will be hard for riders to escape the bunch there. The descent continues all the way to the line, but it is a lot shallower with 6 kilometres remaining, which will allow plenty of road for the pack to catch any escapees.
The weather will again be very pleasant for the riders, a far cry from the scorching temperatures of earlier in the race with a pleasant 22 Degrees forecast. A light wind won't effect proceedings, in short, perfect weather for a ride.
Stage 18 is going to be one of the easier ones for Dumoulin to protect his lead, with not much climbing in the early part of the stage, which should mean that most his team will be present to help him on the final climb. At 204 kilometres, it is a long one, with the first 70 kilometres of the course being essentially flat, before the first categorised climbs of the day. The first is the Alto Santibanez de Ayllon (7.8 km, 4%) and is stapled together with the Alto del Campanario (6.5 km, 3.9%). Neither are particularly tough, and it is probable that most of the peleton will get over these, and importantly most of Giant-Alpecin will make it to defend their leader's jersey.
The next 80 kilometres is rolling terrain, with quite a lot of short, easy climbs, followed by gradual descents. This is classic breakaway terrain, as a small group is better suited to maintaining cohesion over this sort of challenging route. The final climb is a category 1, but it is perhaps the easiest category 1 of the race, the Puerto del la Quesera (10 km, 5.2%) is shallow at the start, and then averages around 6% to the summit, which is 13 kilometres from the finish. The descent is straightforward and non-technical, and it will be hard for riders to escape the bunch there. The descent continues all the way to the line, but it is a lot shallower with 6 kilometres remaining, which will allow plenty of road for the pack to catch any escapees.
The weather will again be very pleasant for the riders, a far cry from the scorching temperatures of earlier in the race with a pleasant 22 Degrees forecast. A light wind won't effect proceedings, in short, perfect weather for a ride.
The Tactics
Giant-Alpecin will have very little reason to ride, and Astana won't be particularly keen to see the break brought back, as bonus seconds aren't going to advantage Aru, as he's not going to outsprint Dumoulin, and if he gets any gap, it will be enough for him to take the red jersey. The only ones who might chase the break down are Katusha and Movistar, who are both hunting for more time, and who would be more advantaged by the prospect of bonus seconds on the line. However, the final is too easy for Rodriguez, Valverde and Quintana to make a difference, either on the up or downhill, and it would take a very strong rider to stay away from the bunch here.
I expect a breakaway to go all the way to the line here, and as usual it will be a lottery to decide who joins the early move. The flat start to the course won't do any favours for climbers who want to capitalise on the climb close to the finish, and it's more likely that an allrounder stands a better chance at getting in the break and then winning. It may come down to a sprint, but it is more likely that a strong rider manages to make the difference on the final climb, and then last to the finish with the aid of the descent.
Giant-Alpecin will have very little reason to ride, and Astana won't be particularly keen to see the break brought back, as bonus seconds aren't going to advantage Aru, as he's not going to outsprint Dumoulin, and if he gets any gap, it will be enough for him to take the red jersey. The only ones who might chase the break down are Katusha and Movistar, who are both hunting for more time, and who would be more advantaged by the prospect of bonus seconds on the line. However, the final is too easy for Rodriguez, Valverde and Quintana to make a difference, either on the up or downhill, and it would take a very strong rider to stay away from the bunch here.
I expect a breakaway to go all the way to the line here, and as usual it will be a lottery to decide who joins the early move. The flat start to the course won't do any favours for climbers who want to capitalise on the climb close to the finish, and it's more likely that an allrounder stands a better chance at getting in the break and then winning. It may come down to a sprint, but it is more likely that a strong rider manages to make the difference on the final climb, and then last to the finish with the aid of the descent.
The Contenders
As stated above, it's going to be a tough stage for the GC riders to make a difference, but if it does come down to a finish between the contenders, then Valverde is the obvious pick. He has seemingly returned to form, crushing the TT, and the shallower climb will be very much to his liking. He is a top descender, and is by far the best sprinter of the contenders here.
The breakaway is always a lottery, and I'll just put a few names out there that could win here. Riccardo Zoidl didn't ride the strongest TT yesterday, would have expected better from the Austrian, who is normally good against the clock, but perhaps he was keeping something in store for this stage, where he will be looking to continue a great Grand Tour for Trek, who already have three wins to their name. He is strong on the flat and on the climbs, and is an ambitious young rider, who will be looking to show that he can be a force on the pro scene.
Jerome Coppel rode an eye-catching TT, finishing 5th on the stage, proving that his form is good, and he has what it takes to make the break today. He is also an accomplished climber, winning races like the Vuelta Murcia, and taking 5th overall in the Dauphine. IAM have had a poor race, and will be keen to make up for it with a stage win in the last few days, and Coppel looks like their best option.
Jose Goncalves has raced the entire Vuelta with good form, but has just missed out on chances where he could have taken a victory, either going with a breakaway that was later captured, or by missing a late attack in the stage, which went on to win. He did a solid TT, surprising for him as he isn't renowned as being strong against the clock. He showed himself to be amongst the best on these shallower climbs in the early stages of the Vuelta, and he should be in a good position to showcase those talents here.
Nelson Oliviera is another Portuguese rider who has had a standout Vuelta, taking a stage win, and looking strong in the TT yesterday to take 8th, although he was personally a bit disappointed in his showing. His Lampre team has been very active in the breaks, and that is likely to continue here, and should put them in with another chance at taking a win. His first win was an admirable display of team tactics, but he was very strong as well to hold a minute gap for 30 kilometres over a large group, and if he brings that strength again, he will be hard to hold off.
As stated above, it's going to be a tough stage for the GC riders to make a difference, but if it does come down to a finish between the contenders, then Valverde is the obvious pick. He has seemingly returned to form, crushing the TT, and the shallower climb will be very much to his liking. He is a top descender, and is by far the best sprinter of the contenders here.
The breakaway is always a lottery, and I'll just put a few names out there that could win here. Riccardo Zoidl didn't ride the strongest TT yesterday, would have expected better from the Austrian, who is normally good against the clock, but perhaps he was keeping something in store for this stage, where he will be looking to continue a great Grand Tour for Trek, who already have three wins to their name. He is strong on the flat and on the climbs, and is an ambitious young rider, who will be looking to show that he can be a force on the pro scene.
Jerome Coppel rode an eye-catching TT, finishing 5th on the stage, proving that his form is good, and he has what it takes to make the break today. He is also an accomplished climber, winning races like the Vuelta Murcia, and taking 5th overall in the Dauphine. IAM have had a poor race, and will be keen to make up for it with a stage win in the last few days, and Coppel looks like their best option.
Jose Goncalves has raced the entire Vuelta with good form, but has just missed out on chances where he could have taken a victory, either going with a breakaway that was later captured, or by missing a late attack in the stage, which went on to win. He did a solid TT, surprising for him as he isn't renowned as being strong against the clock. He showed himself to be amongst the best on these shallower climbs in the early stages of the Vuelta, and he should be in a good position to showcase those talents here.
Nelson Oliviera is another Portuguese rider who has had a standout Vuelta, taking a stage win, and looking strong in the TT yesterday to take 8th, although he was personally a bit disappointed in his showing. His Lampre team has been very active in the breaks, and that is likely to continue here, and should put them in with another chance at taking a win. His first win was an admirable display of team tactics, but he was very strong as well to hold a minute gap for 30 kilometres over a large group, and if he brings that strength again, he will be hard to hold off.
The Verdict
Jose Goncalves has been very close to taking a win in this Vuelta, not necessarily on the results sheet, but in his manner of riding, which sometimes pays off and sometimes doesn't. If he makes the break here, that gambling nature will pay off more often than not, and he is strong enough to capitalise.
Jose Goncalves has been very close to taking a win in this Vuelta, not necessarily on the results sheet, but in his manner of riding, which sometimes pays off and sometimes doesn't. If he makes the break here, that gambling nature will pay off more often than not, and he is strong enough to capitalise.