Joaquim Rodriguez closed to within a second of the red jersey within an impressive win on Stage 15, but he will need to continue with his time gains if he wants to win the Vuelta. Tom Dumoulin lost more time, but he's still within striking distance if he rides a good TT as expected, and everyone else will be nervous of the prospect of being too close to him coming into the Stage 17 TT.
On other fronts, Vuelta organisers have proven themselves either incompetent or mischievous liars, again publishing an incorrect profile of the final climb. I only really notice at the points where it says it should be 11% and is quite clearly 4% or in Stage 9 where the opposite was the case, but it throws into question all their data, as it would be easier to mistake say a 7% gradient for a 6%, and tougher for me to spot as well. So I won't be relying on the racebook for specific details, more as a general indicator.
On other fronts, Vuelta organisers have proven themselves either incompetent or mischievous liars, again publishing an incorrect profile of the final climb. I only really notice at the points where it says it should be 11% and is quite clearly 4% or in Stage 9 where the opposite was the case, but it throws into question all their data, as it would be easier to mistake say a 7% gradient for a 6%, and tougher for me to spot as well. So I won't be relying on the racebook for specific details, more as a general indicator.
The Course
A very hard stage for the riders here, especially after the two days already completed in the mountains preceding this. It is set up to be the hardest of these three stages, and could produce some big time gaps amongst the favourites.
The 185 kilometre stage from Luarca to Quiros starts with the climbing immediately, albeit an easier challenge up the Alto de Aristebano (14.6 km, 3.4%), which should be the scene for the early breakaway to make its move. The descent is decidedly more steep, and it goes straight into some uncategorised ascents before the Alto de Piedratecha (10.6 km, 4.8%), which again, is quite easy, and won't hurt too many rider's legs, unless the break hasn't been established yet, and the pace is still being pushed hard. The next 73 kilometres are the easiest of the stage, with almost flat terrain followed by a descent and more flat, only punctuated by one climb of the Alto de Cabrunana (4.8 km, 6.8%) along the way. After that easier section, the climbing comes fairly regularly from then on, the Alto del Tenebredo (3.8 km, 8.9%) is first up, cresting with 65 kilometres remaining, A sharp descent into rolling terrain follows and when the riders reach the foot of the next climb it will be either ascending or descending for the rest of the race. The Alto del Cordal (8.5 km, 5.8%) summits with 43 kilometres to go, and descends straight into the Alto de la Cobetoria (9.8 km, 8.7%). This climb is going to be tough one, with very steep sections in the middle of the climb, before it levels off to almost false flat at the top. The descent from the summit is steep and technical, and could provide a springboard for an aggressive move, or help the break stay away from the larger main group. The descent leads directly into the final climb to the summit finish of the stage, the Alto Ermita de Alba (6.8 km, 11.1%). Looking at the profile has proven to be unreliable so far, but it appears to be a very steep unrelenting style of climb, which even if it came by itself, would create big gaps amongst the big contenders.
The temperature should again be very pleasant, hitting a high of 21 Degrees Celsius, although it will be significantly colder at the tops of the climbs. The wind is going to be a moderate-strong one here, predicted to be a 29 km/hr easterly, which will be a cross or head wind for the majority of the day as the course wends its way round. That will change on the penultimate ascent, where it will be a tailwind, perhaps suiting attackers, and then on the switchbacks of the final climb, it will revert back to being largely a headwind, although the switchbacks will vary the direction somewhat.
A very hard stage for the riders here, especially after the two days already completed in the mountains preceding this. It is set up to be the hardest of these three stages, and could produce some big time gaps amongst the favourites.
The 185 kilometre stage from Luarca to Quiros starts with the climbing immediately, albeit an easier challenge up the Alto de Aristebano (14.6 km, 3.4%), which should be the scene for the early breakaway to make its move. The descent is decidedly more steep, and it goes straight into some uncategorised ascents before the Alto de Piedratecha (10.6 km, 4.8%), which again, is quite easy, and won't hurt too many rider's legs, unless the break hasn't been established yet, and the pace is still being pushed hard. The next 73 kilometres are the easiest of the stage, with almost flat terrain followed by a descent and more flat, only punctuated by one climb of the Alto de Cabrunana (4.8 km, 6.8%) along the way. After that easier section, the climbing comes fairly regularly from then on, the Alto del Tenebredo (3.8 km, 8.9%) is first up, cresting with 65 kilometres remaining, A sharp descent into rolling terrain follows and when the riders reach the foot of the next climb it will be either ascending or descending for the rest of the race. The Alto del Cordal (8.5 km, 5.8%) summits with 43 kilometres to go, and descends straight into the Alto de la Cobetoria (9.8 km, 8.7%). This climb is going to be tough one, with very steep sections in the middle of the climb, before it levels off to almost false flat at the top. The descent from the summit is steep and technical, and could provide a springboard for an aggressive move, or help the break stay away from the larger main group. The descent leads directly into the final climb to the summit finish of the stage, the Alto Ermita de Alba (6.8 km, 11.1%). Looking at the profile has proven to be unreliable so far, but it appears to be a very steep unrelenting style of climb, which even if it came by itself, would create big gaps amongst the big contenders.
The temperature should again be very pleasant, hitting a high of 21 Degrees Celsius, although it will be significantly colder at the tops of the climbs. The wind is going to be a moderate-strong one here, predicted to be a 29 km/hr easterly, which will be a cross or head wind for the majority of the day as the course wends its way round. That will change on the penultimate ascent, where it will be a tailwind, perhaps suiting attackers, and then on the switchbacks of the final climb, it will revert back to being largely a headwind, although the switchbacks will vary the direction somewhat.
The Tactics
Not much changes from the last stage in terms of tactics. the teams of the climbers need to make sure that break is brought back to maximise their time gaps, and as most of the stage is relatively easy, they could well manage to keep the move in check. The teams of Movistar and Astana look the strongest at the moment, and they will drive the pace over the last three climbs, and presumably the race will come to pieces quite early on the final climb. Indeed the attacking could well begin before that, and the penultimate climb looks like a very good spot for an ambitious Nairo Quintana to launch a move with the strong tailwind pushing him on, and a fast descent to follow, which should mean that he could maintain any advantage. That said, it will be important to conserve energy for the final climb, which looks incredibly hard, and will certainly require all the riders energies.
It will be an important day to get a domestique in the breakaway, with the difficulty of the climb being such that most of the normal mountains helpers will be distanced very quickly. With so many riders in the conversation for the red jersey at present, it will be a maelstrom of activity, calculations and re-calculations, and of course the ever present factor of accumulated fatigue at this point of the race will come into play. What it will boil down to is the fact that certain riders need to gain big time before the TT, Rodriguez, Aru, Quintana in particular. Dumoulin will just defensively, as will Majka, who showed yesterday that he was very happy just to sit of Aru's wheel until the final few hundred metres, before jumping away to take a bit of time back. Quintana is a good time triallist, but will need to be higher up the overall than he is at the moment, he will need to be better positioned than Dumoulin certainly, and he will want to be closer to Majka and Aru to feel that he has a good chance of claiming red.
Not much changes from the last stage in terms of tactics. the teams of the climbers need to make sure that break is brought back to maximise their time gaps, and as most of the stage is relatively easy, they could well manage to keep the move in check. The teams of Movistar and Astana look the strongest at the moment, and they will drive the pace over the last three climbs, and presumably the race will come to pieces quite early on the final climb. Indeed the attacking could well begin before that, and the penultimate climb looks like a very good spot for an ambitious Nairo Quintana to launch a move with the strong tailwind pushing him on, and a fast descent to follow, which should mean that he could maintain any advantage. That said, it will be important to conserve energy for the final climb, which looks incredibly hard, and will certainly require all the riders energies.
It will be an important day to get a domestique in the breakaway, with the difficulty of the climb being such that most of the normal mountains helpers will be distanced very quickly. With so many riders in the conversation for the red jersey at present, it will be a maelstrom of activity, calculations and re-calculations, and of course the ever present factor of accumulated fatigue at this point of the race will come into play. What it will boil down to is the fact that certain riders need to gain big time before the TT, Rodriguez, Aru, Quintana in particular. Dumoulin will just defensively, as will Majka, who showed yesterday that he was very happy just to sit of Aru's wheel until the final few hundred metres, before jumping away to take a bit of time back. Quintana is a good time triallist, but will need to be higher up the overall than he is at the moment, he will need to be better positioned than Dumoulin certainly, and he will want to be closer to Majka and Aru to feel that he has a good chance of claiming red.
The Contenders
What this Vuelta has shown is that the top climbers are all very evenly matched, with the only rider to have taken multiple stage wins being Esteban Chaves in the first week of the race. The others have all shared the performances around, and each has looked vulnerable at times and strong at others. This makes it hard to pick winners, as it appears to come down to which side of the bed the riders wake up on at the moment.
Joaquim Rodriguez took a popular win yesterday, and will be confident of his chances of repeating here. He is at home on the steepest slopes, and whilst there was only 2 kilometres to make a real difference on the last stage, the final climb here is consistently above 10% for its 6.8 km duration. This will allow 'Purito' to attack with the knowledge that it is tough enough for him to take a gap with an attack, and continuously hard enough that it will be very hard to mount a chase behind. He will need all the time he can muster with a flat TT coming up, so I would expect him to go from near the bottom of the climb. This doesn't really suit his riding style, as he traditionally waits for the final kilometre before launching his trademark unfollowable acceleration, and that may hurt his chances of actually winning the stage.
Rafal Majka took 2nd on Stage 15, happily sitting on Aru's wheel when the Italian tried to follow Rodriguez, and then accelerating past him in the final few hundred metres to take a few more seconds. He will be working with similar tactics here, as he can afford to take a more defensive approach, as he will be one of the strongest in the TT. He is climbing as strong as anyone at the moment, and he will be very motivated, as a win will really put him into the frame to winning his first Grand Tour.
Fabio Aru was probably the second strongest on the stage yesterday, but worked himself into the ground, which allowed a few to pass him at the end. He will be happy enough however, his director said that he has been obsessed about taking time on Dumoulin, and he managed that here. He will feel comfortable with Rodriguez being his closest rival, as the Spaniard is notoriously poor against the clock, whilst Aru is decent. He will probably be again restricted by the need to drive the pace and put time into Dumoulin, which should make it hard for him to win the stage, but if he is on a good day, he will leave everyone behind.
Nairo Quintana showed that he won't just be happy with a stage win in this Vuelta, as he attacked on the early slopes of the final climb yesterday, looking to see if it was possible for him to put in big time on his rivals. As it turned out it wasn't, and he was probably smart to realise that fairly quickly and recover his energy in the main field. He then looked like he had cracked under the flame rouge, but recovered to finish 4th on the day. I think he will try from afar again, and the penultimate climb with the tailwind looks like a great spot to attempt a long range move. He is 3 minutes down on the GC, and may well get a bit of leeway as the teams work out who has the responsibility of chasing him. I'm not sure he will be able to take back the time needed for him to have a shot at the red jersey, but he will certainly give it a good go.
Mikel Nieve has shown two things this Vuelta, that he has very good climbing legs and he has almost no ability to make or follow attacks. He is decidedly a one-paced rider, which may suit this final climb here, which is so hard as to favour those riders with strong legs, rather than those with punchy ability. He will need to be alone to win, as his sprinting is poor, but he will likely be allowed to simply sit on wheels, as he is not considered a big threat for the GC, as he is an appalling TT rider. He was my pick for yesterday, but the actual profile of the climb, rather than the published one made it more of a sit and sprint rather than a gruelling climbing test which Nieve prefers. The accumulation of climbing kilometres over the stage again suits the Spaniard, who comes into this race somewhat fresher than his counterparts, this being the first Grand Tour he has ridden for the GC.
If you're looking for a wildcard from the breakaway, Frank Schleck is the pick of the day. Trek have been riding very well given their bad luck in this tour, and Schleck had his fair share with a crash and a badly timed mechanical, which took him out of the GC picture early on. The uphill start to the stage will give him a good chance of making the break, and is one of the few climbers that may be good enough to hold off the peleton on the final climb.
What this Vuelta has shown is that the top climbers are all very evenly matched, with the only rider to have taken multiple stage wins being Esteban Chaves in the first week of the race. The others have all shared the performances around, and each has looked vulnerable at times and strong at others. This makes it hard to pick winners, as it appears to come down to which side of the bed the riders wake up on at the moment.
Joaquim Rodriguez took a popular win yesterday, and will be confident of his chances of repeating here. He is at home on the steepest slopes, and whilst there was only 2 kilometres to make a real difference on the last stage, the final climb here is consistently above 10% for its 6.8 km duration. This will allow 'Purito' to attack with the knowledge that it is tough enough for him to take a gap with an attack, and continuously hard enough that it will be very hard to mount a chase behind. He will need all the time he can muster with a flat TT coming up, so I would expect him to go from near the bottom of the climb. This doesn't really suit his riding style, as he traditionally waits for the final kilometre before launching his trademark unfollowable acceleration, and that may hurt his chances of actually winning the stage.
Rafal Majka took 2nd on Stage 15, happily sitting on Aru's wheel when the Italian tried to follow Rodriguez, and then accelerating past him in the final few hundred metres to take a few more seconds. He will be working with similar tactics here, as he can afford to take a more defensive approach, as he will be one of the strongest in the TT. He is climbing as strong as anyone at the moment, and he will be very motivated, as a win will really put him into the frame to winning his first Grand Tour.
Fabio Aru was probably the second strongest on the stage yesterday, but worked himself into the ground, which allowed a few to pass him at the end. He will be happy enough however, his director said that he has been obsessed about taking time on Dumoulin, and he managed that here. He will feel comfortable with Rodriguez being his closest rival, as the Spaniard is notoriously poor against the clock, whilst Aru is decent. He will probably be again restricted by the need to drive the pace and put time into Dumoulin, which should make it hard for him to win the stage, but if he is on a good day, he will leave everyone behind.
Nairo Quintana showed that he won't just be happy with a stage win in this Vuelta, as he attacked on the early slopes of the final climb yesterday, looking to see if it was possible for him to put in big time on his rivals. As it turned out it wasn't, and he was probably smart to realise that fairly quickly and recover his energy in the main field. He then looked like he had cracked under the flame rouge, but recovered to finish 4th on the day. I think he will try from afar again, and the penultimate climb with the tailwind looks like a great spot to attempt a long range move. He is 3 minutes down on the GC, and may well get a bit of leeway as the teams work out who has the responsibility of chasing him. I'm not sure he will be able to take back the time needed for him to have a shot at the red jersey, but he will certainly give it a good go.
Mikel Nieve has shown two things this Vuelta, that he has very good climbing legs and he has almost no ability to make or follow attacks. He is decidedly a one-paced rider, which may suit this final climb here, which is so hard as to favour those riders with strong legs, rather than those with punchy ability. He will need to be alone to win, as his sprinting is poor, but he will likely be allowed to simply sit on wheels, as he is not considered a big threat for the GC, as he is an appalling TT rider. He was my pick for yesterday, but the actual profile of the climb, rather than the published one made it more of a sit and sprint rather than a gruelling climbing test which Nieve prefers. The accumulation of climbing kilometres over the stage again suits the Spaniard, who comes into this race somewhat fresher than his counterparts, this being the first Grand Tour he has ridden for the GC.
If you're looking for a wildcard from the breakaway, Frank Schleck is the pick of the day. Trek have been riding very well given their bad luck in this tour, and Schleck had his fair share with a crash and a badly timed mechanical, which took him out of the GC picture early on. The uphill start to the stage will give him a good chance of making the break, and is one of the few climbers that may be good enough to hold off the peleton on the final climb.
The Verdict
The third stage of three in the mountains, and I think it will come down to who is the most fresh as much as anything else. Here Rafal Majka and Mikel Nieve appear to have an advantage over the rest. I'll go with Majka, as he appears to have better team support, as well as a better explosive power, which allows him to follow moves and gives him more options to win.
The third stage of three in the mountains, and I think it will come down to who is the most fresh as much as anything else. Here Rafal Majka and Mikel Nieve appear to have an advantage over the rest. I'll go with Majka, as he appears to have better team support, as well as a better explosive power, which allows him to follow moves and gives him more options to win.