Lampre-Merida did a great job tactically on this stage, attacking with Nelson Oliviera, and then marking the rest of the break and slowing down the chase by interrupting the turns at the front. Julien Simon respresented my selections by taking 2nd on the day, but clearly missed a trick by not having his teammate Bagot work to close down Oliviera more.
The next day could be for the break again, but the GC candidates will have to come out to play on the summit finish.
The next day could be for the break again, but the GC candidates will have to come out to play on the summit finish.
The Course
The parcours for this stage is different from the typical Vuelta fare. First, it is quite long at 215 kilometres, and secondly doesn't contain much of the steep climbing the race is renowned for. The peleton will depart from the Basque region, and will finish in the Asturian mountains on the Alto Campoo in Fuente del Chivo. The initial 105 kilometres are mostly flat, with the occasional short uncategorised climb to deal with. After that the Puerto Estacas de Trueba (11 km, 3%) needs to be dealt with, but it is very shallow in gradient, and it's length is the only thing that makes it a categorised ascent. The descent will be more tricky , as it is fast and technical, and interrupted by sharp climbs. The descent gradually levels off, and ends up at the foot of the Puerto del Escudo (11.5 km, 6.4%), which is a very inconsistent climb, and the toughest challenge of the day. The first 5 kilometres arguably shouldn't be categorised as they only average 1.6%, which is really more false flat than climb. Following the easy beginning, the climb kicks up dramatically, and has several kilometres which average above 10%, including one at a leg-stopping 14%. Given that the summit comes with 56 kilometres to go, and the road is pan flat for the next 37 kilometres, it is unlikely that there will be major action amongst the favourites, unless some are on a bad day and get dropped. The final test is the summit finish of the Alto Campoo (18 km, 5.1%) which has the potential to create some gaps. It is again easiest at the start, averaging between 4-6% until 5 kilometres to go, with the occasional 8% section, and from there it is between 6-9% until the finish. The hardest pinch of 10% comes just before the flame rouge, and will likely be the scene of the final attack from the GC contenders.
The weather will be mild again, with temperatures getting no higher than 18 Degrees, and rain unlikely. The wind will again be a non factor, it will be a light crosswind for the majority of the stage.
The parcours for this stage is different from the typical Vuelta fare. First, it is quite long at 215 kilometres, and secondly doesn't contain much of the steep climbing the race is renowned for. The peleton will depart from the Basque region, and will finish in the Asturian mountains on the Alto Campoo in Fuente del Chivo. The initial 105 kilometres are mostly flat, with the occasional short uncategorised climb to deal with. After that the Puerto Estacas de Trueba (11 km, 3%) needs to be dealt with, but it is very shallow in gradient, and it's length is the only thing that makes it a categorised ascent. The descent will be more tricky , as it is fast and technical, and interrupted by sharp climbs. The descent gradually levels off, and ends up at the foot of the Puerto del Escudo (11.5 km, 6.4%), which is a very inconsistent climb, and the toughest challenge of the day. The first 5 kilometres arguably shouldn't be categorised as they only average 1.6%, which is really more false flat than climb. Following the easy beginning, the climb kicks up dramatically, and has several kilometres which average above 10%, including one at a leg-stopping 14%. Given that the summit comes with 56 kilometres to go, and the road is pan flat for the next 37 kilometres, it is unlikely that there will be major action amongst the favourites, unless some are on a bad day and get dropped. The final test is the summit finish of the Alto Campoo (18 km, 5.1%) which has the potential to create some gaps. It is again easiest at the start, averaging between 4-6% until 5 kilometres to go, with the occasional 8% section, and from there it is between 6-9% until the finish. The hardest pinch of 10% comes just before the flame rouge, and will likely be the scene of the final attack from the GC contenders.
The weather will be mild again, with temperatures getting no higher than 18 Degrees, and rain unlikely. The wind will again be a non factor, it will be a light crosswind for the majority of the stage.
The Tactics
The last stage was run very fast, as the breakaway took a long way to form, and constant attacks were going off the front and then being nullified. None of the teams had the will, or the energy to take on the job of closing it down, and most teams had a rider in the break in any case. I'd expect a similar circumstance here, but Astana will be able to control the break's composition a bit more, and there won't be potentially dangerous riders like Sicard and Brambilla present in the move. That will mean that Astana will have little interest in closing down their advantage, and the break will be allowed to ride away to contest the win, unless a team takes it upon themselves to push for the stage victory. That seems unlikely, as it isn't the hardest stage finish, and there's no guarantee that the strongest rider will take the win. Also, this stage is the first of three consecutive days in the mountains, and the teams will want to save their energy as much as possible.
Some of the GC teams will definitely drive the pace on the Puerto del Escudo, which could drop riders who aren't on a good day, and if a significant player on the GC drops behind here, the other teams will use their riders to drive the pace into the final climb to make sure the time loss is as big as possible. That will be the only threat to the escapees, but I would have thought that they would have an advantage of over ten minutes at this point, so it shouldn't matter overly.
It will be important for those looking to win the stage or to gain time on GC not to attack too early, as it will be important to save energy for the tougher parts at the end of the climb, rather than pushing too hard on the shallower slopes of the early part.
The last stage was run very fast, as the breakaway took a long way to form, and constant attacks were going off the front and then being nullified. None of the teams had the will, or the energy to take on the job of closing it down, and most teams had a rider in the break in any case. I'd expect a similar circumstance here, but Astana will be able to control the break's composition a bit more, and there won't be potentially dangerous riders like Sicard and Brambilla present in the move. That will mean that Astana will have little interest in closing down their advantage, and the break will be allowed to ride away to contest the win, unless a team takes it upon themselves to push for the stage victory. That seems unlikely, as it isn't the hardest stage finish, and there's no guarantee that the strongest rider will take the win. Also, this stage is the first of three consecutive days in the mountains, and the teams will want to save their energy as much as possible.
Some of the GC teams will definitely drive the pace on the Puerto del Escudo, which could drop riders who aren't on a good day, and if a significant player on the GC drops behind here, the other teams will use their riders to drive the pace into the final climb to make sure the time loss is as big as possible. That will be the only threat to the escapees, but I would have thought that they would have an advantage of over ten minutes at this point, so it shouldn't matter overly.
It will be important for those looking to win the stage or to gain time on GC not to attack too early, as it will be important to save energy for the tougher parts at the end of the climb, rather than pushing too hard on the shallower slopes of the early part.
The Contenders
Kenny Elissonde was in the break on the last stage, but this will be more to his liking, as he is more of a climber than a puncheur. He has looked strong this race, attacking a number of times, unfortunately at the wrong times, but looking good, and heightening feelings that he might be able to recapture the magic that saw him win atop the Angliru in the 2013 Vuelta. He may be a little tired after being in the break on the previous stage, but no one was taking it easy that stage, and I don't think he'll be overly disadvantaged.
Riccardo Zoidl has been working very well for his sprinters, often doing key domestique work in the back half of stages to bring the break back for a sprint. Now the race is entering his terrain, and he'll be very keen to make an impression in the mountains. He is a good climber, and is often does decent GC rides in the shorter stage races. He finished 8th overall at California, and has won the Tour of Austria, so he clearly has ability in the mountains. He hasn't quite showed his potential in the Grand Tours yet, but he has been riding stronger than previously, and signs point to him producing better performances than he has in the past.
Maxime Bouet appears to have very good legs at the moment, he is isn't riding a race for the GC, but finds himself sitting handy in 22nd position. He clearly has good legs and has shown himself to be an accomplished climber in smaller races in the past. He was agonisingly close to the win on Stage 12, and will be very keen to correct that injustice on terrain that suits him better. Domenico Pozzovivo has dropped way down the GC with a very poor performance on the queen stage, and Bouet will likely have the freedom to go for his own goals.
Jose Goncalves was my pick for the last stage, but he didn't end up making the winning move, with David Arroyo going instead from Caja-Rural, perhaps to move up on GC. Goncalves could be the guy for the Spanish wildcard team here then, and he is in such good form that it is hard to discount him. He isn't a pure climber, but winning from breaks is about strength as much as ability, and strength is what the Portuguese has in spades.
Frank Schleck, Andrew Talansky and Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all very good climbers when they are on form, and all have lost enough time that they will be given leeway by the peleton. Unfortunately bad form is very hard to break, and Talansky in particular looks fatigued as well. Van Den Broeck and Schleck should be in better condition, but I wouldn't favour them to make a break on a flat start like this, as a lot of power is required to latch on to the right move, which isn't their forte. Nonetheless, they are all elite climbers, and I would expect them to have a go at some stage during the race.
Ruben Plaza was another present in the breakaway on the previous stage, and he played an important role in his teammate's eventual win, marking moves behind Oliviera and disrupting the pacemaking. He may have spent quite a bit of energy doing that, but he is in fine form at the moment, and will be looking for a win of his own. He won on the stage into Gap of this year's Tour, leaving his breakaway compatriots in his dust on the final climb, and he looks to have recovered well enough from that effort to be in prominent position on a number of stages in this race. His best finish has been a 4th so far, but that was out of the group of the GC contenders, and it will be much easier to distance the lower quality of riders that will make up the break.
Kenny Elissonde was in the break on the last stage, but this will be more to his liking, as he is more of a climber than a puncheur. He has looked strong this race, attacking a number of times, unfortunately at the wrong times, but looking good, and heightening feelings that he might be able to recapture the magic that saw him win atop the Angliru in the 2013 Vuelta. He may be a little tired after being in the break on the previous stage, but no one was taking it easy that stage, and I don't think he'll be overly disadvantaged.
Riccardo Zoidl has been working very well for his sprinters, often doing key domestique work in the back half of stages to bring the break back for a sprint. Now the race is entering his terrain, and he'll be very keen to make an impression in the mountains. He is a good climber, and is often does decent GC rides in the shorter stage races. He finished 8th overall at California, and has won the Tour of Austria, so he clearly has ability in the mountains. He hasn't quite showed his potential in the Grand Tours yet, but he has been riding stronger than previously, and signs point to him producing better performances than he has in the past.
Maxime Bouet appears to have very good legs at the moment, he is isn't riding a race for the GC, but finds himself sitting handy in 22nd position. He clearly has good legs and has shown himself to be an accomplished climber in smaller races in the past. He was agonisingly close to the win on Stage 12, and will be very keen to correct that injustice on terrain that suits him better. Domenico Pozzovivo has dropped way down the GC with a very poor performance on the queen stage, and Bouet will likely have the freedom to go for his own goals.
Jose Goncalves was my pick for the last stage, but he didn't end up making the winning move, with David Arroyo going instead from Caja-Rural, perhaps to move up on GC. Goncalves could be the guy for the Spanish wildcard team here then, and he is in such good form that it is hard to discount him. He isn't a pure climber, but winning from breaks is about strength as much as ability, and strength is what the Portuguese has in spades.
Frank Schleck, Andrew Talansky and Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all very good climbers when they are on form, and all have lost enough time that they will be given leeway by the peleton. Unfortunately bad form is very hard to break, and Talansky in particular looks fatigued as well. Van Den Broeck and Schleck should be in better condition, but I wouldn't favour them to make a break on a flat start like this, as a lot of power is required to latch on to the right move, which isn't their forte. Nonetheless, they are all elite climbers, and I would expect them to have a go at some stage during the race.
Ruben Plaza was another present in the breakaway on the previous stage, and he played an important role in his teammate's eventual win, marking moves behind Oliviera and disrupting the pacemaking. He may have spent quite a bit of energy doing that, but he is in fine form at the moment, and will be looking for a win of his own. He won on the stage into Gap of this year's Tour, leaving his breakaway compatriots in his dust on the final climb, and he looks to have recovered well enough from that effort to be in prominent position on a number of stages in this race. His best finish has been a 4th so far, but that was out of the group of the GC contenders, and it will be much easier to distance the lower quality of riders that will make up the break.
The Verdict
Riccardo Zoidl is a rider that I have kept an eye on for a while now, as it appears that he has some serious ability. This will be an excellent stage for him to show it.
Riccardo Zoidl is a rider that I have kept an eye on for a while now, as it appears that he has some serious ability. This will be an excellent stage for him to show it.