The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is the second and harder of the two Canadian classics races, and like the GP Quebec, it is a relatively new addition to the cycling calendar, only having been raced since 2010. Both the Canadian races have become important preparation for the World Championships, and riders who want a chance at the rainbow stripes either ride the Vuelta or the Canadian classics. The circuit race format used here is unusual in the World Tour, and is part of the reason that is offers good Worlds preparation, as the Worlds course is almost always a circuit race as well. The GP Montreal has typically been won by puncheurs or climbers, with the winners list comprising of Robert Gesink, Rui Costa, Lars Petter Nordhaug, Peter Sagan and Simon Gerrans. Only Gerrans win came down to a bunch sprint, due mainly to the very strong work of Orica-Greenedge on the last lap.
The Course
17 laps of the 12.1 kilometre circuit are in store for the riders here, on what is a very tough course. The riders start on a short descent, but are quickly on the main climb of the day, the Cote Camilien-Houde (1.8 km, 8%), which has its hardest slopes at the foot of the climb, before levelling out and then assuming a more regular gradient towards the summit. From the top, there is a very gradual descent to the 5 kilometre mark where it flattens out briefly before the road heads up another climb the Cote de la Polytechnique (780 m, 6.3%), which summits with 5.6 kilometres remaining. A short 500 metre descent follows, and from there the run-in is either flat or gradually downhill to a 180-degree hairpin with 500m remaining, and from there it ascends to the finish line at 4%.
The weather for the race should be a bit miserable, with constant rain and driving winds forecast for the race. The wind will be a 25 km/hr easterly, which will be a tailwind for the first climb, and a headwind for the second, and importantly it will a headwind for all of the last 4 kilometres, except the final 500 metres to the line.
17 laps of the 12.1 kilometre circuit are in store for the riders here, on what is a very tough course. The riders start on a short descent, but are quickly on the main climb of the day, the Cote Camilien-Houde (1.8 km, 8%), which has its hardest slopes at the foot of the climb, before levelling out and then assuming a more regular gradient towards the summit. From the top, there is a very gradual descent to the 5 kilometre mark where it flattens out briefly before the road heads up another climb the Cote de la Polytechnique (780 m, 6.3%), which summits with 5.6 kilometres remaining. A short 500 metre descent follows, and from there the run-in is either flat or gradually downhill to a 180-degree hairpin with 500m remaining, and from there it ascends to the finish line at 4%.
The weather for the race should be a bit miserable, with constant rain and driving winds forecast for the race. The wind will be a 25 km/hr easterly, which will be a tailwind for the first climb, and a headwind for the second, and importantly it will a headwind for all of the last 4 kilometres, except the final 500 metres to the line.
The Tactics
The easy second half of the course and the short ramp to the finish clearly plays into the hands of the strong sprinters, but tackling the Cote Camilien-Houde 17 times is a tough ask for anyone, and most sprinters won’t make the finish with the front group. In past editions, the race has often been whittled down to a select bunch over the final 3-4 laps, and the win is either contested in a sprint from this group, or a late attack. The weather will play a role in this race, as the rain tends to make racing more attritional, with more domestiques getting tired out early on, and the race getting open for attackers. The wind should serve to make the racing a little easier however, as it is a tailwind up the major climb, which will help the lesser climbers, and it will be a headwind on the main flat section, which will advantage the peleton over the break, and make the job of chasing a lot easier. Wind tends to effect races less in the middle of cities, with the building offering a lot of protection from the elements, but the GP Montreal is raced around the Universite de Montreal campus, and is a lot more open.
This race looks like it will come down to either a reduced bunch sprint, or a small group of attackers fighting out the win amongst themselves, if it follows the script of previous editions. The early break is normally inconsequential, with the smaller teams looking for exposure for their sponsors. Dangerous attacks start coming in the last 4-5 laps, with teams keen to get riders up the road to anticipate their rivals, and remove the burden of chasing from their own teams. It is possible that a move like this goes all the way if it has the right composition, and enough teams behind are unwilling to take up the chasing duties. Even if they aren’t destined to win the race, riders in these moves can be useful later in the race; if another rider from their team bridges to the group, they can help him extend his lead, or if a rival attacks, they can drop back to help their leader who has been left behind. The final lap is often where the decisive moves are made, and the peleton is often worn down more and more over the climbs, as attacks string out the main group. It will be a close run thing between the attackers and the sprinters, the wind favours the race being brought back for a sprint, but there are a lot of very strong climbers who will be looking to break the race apart. The tailwind up the main climb may seem like it offers a good opportunity for attackers, and it does, but the slog into a headwind on the flat will make an attack from afar a difficult and unpopular option for most riders. The headwind will give an advantage to the sprinters’ teams looking to drag the escapees back, and there should be a number of squads motivated to keep the race together for a final dash to the line.
The easy second half of the course and the short ramp to the finish clearly plays into the hands of the strong sprinters, but tackling the Cote Camilien-Houde 17 times is a tough ask for anyone, and most sprinters won’t make the finish with the front group. In past editions, the race has often been whittled down to a select bunch over the final 3-4 laps, and the win is either contested in a sprint from this group, or a late attack. The weather will play a role in this race, as the rain tends to make racing more attritional, with more domestiques getting tired out early on, and the race getting open for attackers. The wind should serve to make the racing a little easier however, as it is a tailwind up the major climb, which will help the lesser climbers, and it will be a headwind on the main flat section, which will advantage the peleton over the break, and make the job of chasing a lot easier. Wind tends to effect races less in the middle of cities, with the building offering a lot of protection from the elements, but the GP Montreal is raced around the Universite de Montreal campus, and is a lot more open.
This race looks like it will come down to either a reduced bunch sprint, or a small group of attackers fighting out the win amongst themselves, if it follows the script of previous editions. The early break is normally inconsequential, with the smaller teams looking for exposure for their sponsors. Dangerous attacks start coming in the last 4-5 laps, with teams keen to get riders up the road to anticipate their rivals, and remove the burden of chasing from their own teams. It is possible that a move like this goes all the way if it has the right composition, and enough teams behind are unwilling to take up the chasing duties. Even if they aren’t destined to win the race, riders in these moves can be useful later in the race; if another rider from their team bridges to the group, they can help him extend his lead, or if a rival attacks, they can drop back to help their leader who has been left behind. The final lap is often where the decisive moves are made, and the peleton is often worn down more and more over the climbs, as attacks string out the main group. It will be a close run thing between the attackers and the sprinters, the wind favours the race being brought back for a sprint, but there are a lot of very strong climbers who will be looking to break the race apart. The tailwind up the main climb may seem like it offers a good opportunity for attackers, and it does, but the slog into a headwind on the flat will make an attack from afar a difficult and unpopular option for most riders. The headwind will give an advantage to the sprinters’ teams looking to drag the escapees back, and there should be a number of squads motivated to keep the race together for a final dash to the line.
The Contenders
Sprinters
Michael Matthews comes into this race as the favourite after sprinting to 2nd in the GP Quebec, just being a bit too far behind the winner Rigoberto Uran when he jumped. He was pretty invisible in the final kilometres, but he was where he needed to be where it mattered, and he will be happy with his performance. His form since returning from a rib injury in the Tour de France has been fair, he took a win and a 2nd place finish in the Tour of Alberta against moderate sprinting opposition, but his 2nd in what was a very tough finish to Quebec will have given him a lot of confidence for this race, and more importantly the Worlds. At his best, Matthews will cope with these climbs, and he has shown in races like Amstel Gold that he can handle a lot of climbing in a race and even follow the best in attacks on them. His sprint on uphill finishes like this one is world-class, and not many will fancy their chances against the Aussie if it is all together going into the finish. That may be his downfall however, as he will be a marked man, and all the other teams will try everything to either drop Matthews or attack away from his group. Orica-Greeendge would normally control things for their main man in that instance, but they were strangely absent from the race in Quebec, where if they had been making the pace at the end and bringing Uran back, Matthews would have been able to take the win. In fact Adam Yates was the only one to finish in the front group, and he had been on the attack earlier, and wasn’t able to help his sprinter in the finale. Matthews will need his team to be stronger here, as he won’t be able to control all the attacks by himself.
Alexander Kristoff finished just behind Matthews in 3rd in Quebec, and comes in off a good string of performances in the European sprinting classics, most notably taking victory in GP Plouay a few weeks back. He will probably find the climbing to tough for him here, and has acknowledged that fact in interviews, saying that the Canadian classics are “probably too hard for me”. Then again he surprised himself in Quebec, so another surprise could be on the cards in this even harder race. He will have a strong team at his disposal to bring him back if he gets dropped and if the race is run to suit he could be in contention at the finish. If he is there, he will be very hard to stop as he does very well on these uphill drags to the line, and will be better on this short kick to the line than the longer uphill of GP Quebec.
Fabio Felline found himself out of position heading into the final climbs of Quebec, and despite struggling to get back to the front, couldn’t quite manage it, and didn’t get a chance to sprint for the win. In truth, the explosive finish of Quebec probably doesn’t suit the Italian as much as Montreal will, where he can put his consistently climbing legs on show and then finish it off in an uphill sprint which should be right up his alley. He has been it top form recently, surprising many when he attacked from the peleton to win the Brussels Cycling Classic, and he will be hoping that he can continue his form push towards the World Championships.
Tom Boonen seemed to be in a good position in the finale at Quebec, but he didn’t do well in the finale, so either something went wrong, or he just hit a wall (metaphorically). He will probably find the climbing a tough here, but he was getting back to his best in recent races, with a number of top finishes, and he is looking at riding a strong Worlds, so he will want to give his legs a good test here. He would be happier on a flat finish, but after a long, tough race there aren’t many faster than Boonen, as he does a very similar sprint in that situation as what he would do fresh.
Attackers
Tom-Jelte Slagter is on a hot run of form at the moment, taking two wins and third overall at the Tour of Alberta, and then backing that up with a fine 4th in Quebec, where he was always close to the leading riders in the finale to keep an eye on dangerous attacks. He did a top draw sprint in the finish as well, finishing just behind noted fast men Matthews and Kristoff in the dash to the line. He was having a quiet season until recently, and has never really shined in the classics, despite possessing the skillset to be a major player, with his punchy climbing ability and rapid sprint. Perhaps this Quebec performance signals that he is ready to be a contender in this sort of race, and he should be well suited here. He won’t beat the fast men in a bunch sprint, but he will probably be one of the quickest in a small group.
Greg Van Avermaet is such a strong rider, and he shows that over and over again in his performances against quality opposition. Unfortunately he doesn’t always pick the best times to attack, and so it was again in Quebec, where he was the first to make a move, when everyone was still fresh, and he was easily countered. He then went again, but was clearly spent after his first attack, and then couldn’t muster the energy for a sprint. He will again be one of the strongest here, and he possesses a formidable uphill sprint, notably beating Sagan on two occasions this season, although it is worth noting that both of those stages featured harder finales that what is on offer here.
Phillipe Gilbert is the second BMC card for this race, and he appears to be in decent form for the moment, if not quite at his best. He is no longer as fast as he was earlier in his career, and he won’t fancy his chances in a sprint here, and will know that he needs to put in an attack to win this race. There, he has an advantage, as he can play off the presence of his teammate Van Avermaet, and they can do a one-two punch, or mark counter attacks to help the man up the road. Other teams have this option as well, but the BMC pair look like the strongest duo, although they’ve never really worked superbly well together in the past.
Rigoberto Uran took a surprising win in Quebec, attacking with just under a kilometre to go and riding away from the main bunch, who weren’t exactly sitting up at that stage. He maintained his gap to the line and took a rare win for the Colombian, who is generally regarded as a GC rider for the Grand Tours. He did take 10th in San Sebastian however, and looks to have improved on that form since. On paper, he should be even better suited to the harder GP Montreal, and he will be riding with great confidence after his show of strength. He has a strong team present with him, world champion Kwiatkowski, young gun Alaphillipe and Tony Martin, all of whom could realistically contend here. Indeed, Uran will probably be the one to take up the attack here, whilst Kwiatkowski and Alaphillipe will sit and wait for the sprint, where they will have a good shot at a win from a smaller group, especially if the main fast men are dropped.
Bauke Mollema has got some pretty good legs at the moment, building on his Tour de France form, performing well in San Sebastian, and then riding very strongly in the Tour of Alberta to take the overall victory. He rode strongly in Quebec, launching a strong attack, which looked for a while like it might be the decisive one, but he was reeled back in and recovered to sprint to 6th on the day. He will find this course a lot more to his liking, but he will have to win from a smaller group, as he isn’t nearly quick enough to defeat the sprinters. He is riding in superb form at the moment, and if he gets into the right group then he will be hard to stop.
Tony Gallopin appears to be the strongest of the Lotto-Soudal riders, and finished a credible 8th in the run to the line, but I would have expected him to be more aggressive and on the attack, as he was unlikely to win the race in a sprint. He will need to be more aggressive here, but the course suits him a lot better and he has taken victories in this sort of racing before, notably winning the Clasica San Sebastian over similar terrain to what he will face here. He has been in good form recently, and will looking to use his good form by going on the attack here.
Alexis Vuillermoz has taken a step up this season, with a win in the Tour de France, and a number of good results in top quality races, including a win in the recent Rio Olympics test event. He would probably prefer steeper climbs, as that is where he has traditionally thrived, but he will be happy with the overall number of climbing kilometres in the race. He probably doesn’t have the sprint or explosive power of other riders, but if he can get free in the finale, he has shown that he is very strong and hard to bring back.
Sprinters
Michael Matthews comes into this race as the favourite after sprinting to 2nd in the GP Quebec, just being a bit too far behind the winner Rigoberto Uran when he jumped. He was pretty invisible in the final kilometres, but he was where he needed to be where it mattered, and he will be happy with his performance. His form since returning from a rib injury in the Tour de France has been fair, he took a win and a 2nd place finish in the Tour of Alberta against moderate sprinting opposition, but his 2nd in what was a very tough finish to Quebec will have given him a lot of confidence for this race, and more importantly the Worlds. At his best, Matthews will cope with these climbs, and he has shown in races like Amstel Gold that he can handle a lot of climbing in a race and even follow the best in attacks on them. His sprint on uphill finishes like this one is world-class, and not many will fancy their chances against the Aussie if it is all together going into the finish. That may be his downfall however, as he will be a marked man, and all the other teams will try everything to either drop Matthews or attack away from his group. Orica-Greeendge would normally control things for their main man in that instance, but they were strangely absent from the race in Quebec, where if they had been making the pace at the end and bringing Uran back, Matthews would have been able to take the win. In fact Adam Yates was the only one to finish in the front group, and he had been on the attack earlier, and wasn’t able to help his sprinter in the finale. Matthews will need his team to be stronger here, as he won’t be able to control all the attacks by himself.
Alexander Kristoff finished just behind Matthews in 3rd in Quebec, and comes in off a good string of performances in the European sprinting classics, most notably taking victory in GP Plouay a few weeks back. He will probably find the climbing to tough for him here, and has acknowledged that fact in interviews, saying that the Canadian classics are “probably too hard for me”. Then again he surprised himself in Quebec, so another surprise could be on the cards in this even harder race. He will have a strong team at his disposal to bring him back if he gets dropped and if the race is run to suit he could be in contention at the finish. If he is there, he will be very hard to stop as he does very well on these uphill drags to the line, and will be better on this short kick to the line than the longer uphill of GP Quebec.
Fabio Felline found himself out of position heading into the final climbs of Quebec, and despite struggling to get back to the front, couldn’t quite manage it, and didn’t get a chance to sprint for the win. In truth, the explosive finish of Quebec probably doesn’t suit the Italian as much as Montreal will, where he can put his consistently climbing legs on show and then finish it off in an uphill sprint which should be right up his alley. He has been it top form recently, surprising many when he attacked from the peleton to win the Brussels Cycling Classic, and he will be hoping that he can continue his form push towards the World Championships.
Tom Boonen seemed to be in a good position in the finale at Quebec, but he didn’t do well in the finale, so either something went wrong, or he just hit a wall (metaphorically). He will probably find the climbing a tough here, but he was getting back to his best in recent races, with a number of top finishes, and he is looking at riding a strong Worlds, so he will want to give his legs a good test here. He would be happier on a flat finish, but after a long, tough race there aren’t many faster than Boonen, as he does a very similar sprint in that situation as what he would do fresh.
Attackers
Tom-Jelte Slagter is on a hot run of form at the moment, taking two wins and third overall at the Tour of Alberta, and then backing that up with a fine 4th in Quebec, where he was always close to the leading riders in the finale to keep an eye on dangerous attacks. He did a top draw sprint in the finish as well, finishing just behind noted fast men Matthews and Kristoff in the dash to the line. He was having a quiet season until recently, and has never really shined in the classics, despite possessing the skillset to be a major player, with his punchy climbing ability and rapid sprint. Perhaps this Quebec performance signals that he is ready to be a contender in this sort of race, and he should be well suited here. He won’t beat the fast men in a bunch sprint, but he will probably be one of the quickest in a small group.
Greg Van Avermaet is such a strong rider, and he shows that over and over again in his performances against quality opposition. Unfortunately he doesn’t always pick the best times to attack, and so it was again in Quebec, where he was the first to make a move, when everyone was still fresh, and he was easily countered. He then went again, but was clearly spent after his first attack, and then couldn’t muster the energy for a sprint. He will again be one of the strongest here, and he possesses a formidable uphill sprint, notably beating Sagan on two occasions this season, although it is worth noting that both of those stages featured harder finales that what is on offer here.
Phillipe Gilbert is the second BMC card for this race, and he appears to be in decent form for the moment, if not quite at his best. He is no longer as fast as he was earlier in his career, and he won’t fancy his chances in a sprint here, and will know that he needs to put in an attack to win this race. There, he has an advantage, as he can play off the presence of his teammate Van Avermaet, and they can do a one-two punch, or mark counter attacks to help the man up the road. Other teams have this option as well, but the BMC pair look like the strongest duo, although they’ve never really worked superbly well together in the past.
Rigoberto Uran took a surprising win in Quebec, attacking with just under a kilometre to go and riding away from the main bunch, who weren’t exactly sitting up at that stage. He maintained his gap to the line and took a rare win for the Colombian, who is generally regarded as a GC rider for the Grand Tours. He did take 10th in San Sebastian however, and looks to have improved on that form since. On paper, he should be even better suited to the harder GP Montreal, and he will be riding with great confidence after his show of strength. He has a strong team present with him, world champion Kwiatkowski, young gun Alaphillipe and Tony Martin, all of whom could realistically contend here. Indeed, Uran will probably be the one to take up the attack here, whilst Kwiatkowski and Alaphillipe will sit and wait for the sprint, where they will have a good shot at a win from a smaller group, especially if the main fast men are dropped.
Bauke Mollema has got some pretty good legs at the moment, building on his Tour de France form, performing well in San Sebastian, and then riding very strongly in the Tour of Alberta to take the overall victory. He rode strongly in Quebec, launching a strong attack, which looked for a while like it might be the decisive one, but he was reeled back in and recovered to sprint to 6th on the day. He will find this course a lot more to his liking, but he will have to win from a smaller group, as he isn’t nearly quick enough to defeat the sprinters. He is riding in superb form at the moment, and if he gets into the right group then he will be hard to stop.
Tony Gallopin appears to be the strongest of the Lotto-Soudal riders, and finished a credible 8th in the run to the line, but I would have expected him to be more aggressive and on the attack, as he was unlikely to win the race in a sprint. He will need to be more aggressive here, but the course suits him a lot better and he has taken victories in this sort of racing before, notably winning the Clasica San Sebastian over similar terrain to what he will face here. He has been in good form recently, and will looking to use his good form by going on the attack here.
Alexis Vuillermoz has taken a step up this season, with a win in the Tour de France, and a number of good results in top quality races, including a win in the recent Rio Olympics test event. He would probably prefer steeper climbs, as that is where he has traditionally thrived, but he will be happy with the overall number of climbing kilometres in the race. He probably doesn’t have the sprint or explosive power of other riders, but if he can get free in the finale, he has shown that he is very strong and hard to bring back.
The Verdict
There are so many teams and riders that will be looking to break the race apart and avoid the sprint, which I think will mean that the race is decided from a smaller group. Bauke Mollema seems to be riding in perhaps career best form at the moment, and I’ll pick him for the win here.
There are so many teams and riders that will be looking to break the race apart and avoid the sprint, which I think will mean that the race is decided from a smaller group. Bauke Mollema seems to be riding in perhaps career best form at the moment, and I’ll pick him for the win here.